Estimating bank default with generalised extreme value regression models

The paper proposes a novel model for the prediction of bank failures, on the basis of both macroeconomic and bank-specific microeconomic factors. As bank failures are rare, in the paper we apply a regression method for binary data based on extreme value theory, which turns out to be more effective than classical logistic regression models, as it better leverages the information in the tail of the default distribution. The application of this model to the occurrence of bank defaults in a highly bank dependent economy (Italy) shows that, while microeconomic factors as well as regulatory capital are significant to explain proper failures, macroeconomic factors are relevant only when failures are defined not only in terms of actual defaults but also in terms of mergers and acquisitions. In terms of predictive accuracy, the model based on extreme value theory outperforms classical logistic regression models

Reliability and validity of three questionnaires measuring context-specific sedentary behaviour and associated correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults

BACKGROUND: Reliable and valid measures of total sedentary time, context-specific sedentary behaviour (SB) and its potential correlates are useful for the development of future interventions. The purpose was to examine test-retest reliability and criterion validity of three newly developed questionnaires on total sedentary time, context-specific SB and its potential correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults. METHODS: Reliability and validity was tested in six different samples of Flemish (Belgium) residents. For the reliability study, 20 adolescents, 22 adults and 20 older adults filled out the age-specific SB questionnaire twice. Test-retest reliability was analysed using Kappa coefficients, Intraclass Correlation Coefficients and/or percentage agreement, separately for the three age groups. For the validity study, data were retrieved from 62 adolescents, 33 adults and 33 older adults, with activPAL as criterion measure. Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman plots (or non-parametric approach) were used to analyse criterion validity, separately for the three age groups and for weekday, weekend day and average day. RESULTS: The test-retest reliability for self-reported total sedentary time indicated following values: ICC = 0.37-0.67 in adolescents; ICC = 0.73-0.77 in adults; ICC = 0.68-0.80 in older adults. Item-specific reliability results (e.g. context-specific SB and its potential correlates) showed good-to-excellent reliability in 67.94%, 68.90% and 66.38% of the items in adolescents, adults and older adults respectively. All items belonging to sedentary-related equipment and simultaneous SB showed good reliability. The sections of the questionnaire with lowest reliability were: context-specific SB (adolescents), potential correlates of computer use (adults) and potential correlates of motorized transport (older adults). Spearman correlations between self-reported total sedentary time and the activPAL were different for each age group: rho = 0.02-0.42 (adolescents), rho = 0.06-0.52 (adults), rho = 0.38-0.50 (older adults). Participants over-reported total sedentary time (except for weekend day in older adults) compared to the activPAL, for weekday, weekend day and average day respectively by +57.05%, +46.29%, +53.34% in adolescents; +40.40%, +19.15%, +32.89% in adults; +10.10%, -6.24%, +4.11% in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaires showed acceptable test-retest reliability and criterion validity. However, over-reporting of total SB was noticeable in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, these questionnaires will be useful in getting context-specific information on SB

Multiday expected shortfall under generalized t distributions : evidence from global stock market

We apply seven alternative t-distributions to estimate the market risk measures Value at Risk (VaR) and its extension Expected Shortfall (ES). Of these seven, the twin t-distribution (TT) of Baker and Jackson (2014) and generalized asymmetric distribution (GAT) of Baker (2016) are applied for the first time to estimate market risk. We analytically estimate VaR and ES over one-day horizon and extend this to multi-day horizon using Monte Carlo simulation. We find that taken together TT and GAT distributions provide the best back-testing results across individual confidence levels and horizons for majority of scenarios. Moreover, we find that with the lengthening of time horizon, TT and GAT models performs well, such that at the ten-day horizon, GAT provides the best back-testing results for all of the five indices and the TT model provides the second best results, irrespective period of study and confidence level

A capillary electrophoresis method for the characterization of ecto-nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (NTPDases) and the analysis of inhibitors by in-capillary enzymatic microreaction

A capillary electrophoresis (CE) method for the characterization of recombinant NTPDases 1, 2, and 3, and for assaying NTPDase inhibitors has been developed performing the enzymatic reaction within the capillary. After hydrodynamic injection of plugs of substrate solution with or without inhibitor in reaction buffer, followed by a suspension of an enzyme-containing membrane preparation, and subsequent injection of another plug of substrate solution with or without inhibitor, the reaction took place close to the capillary inlet. After 5 min, the electrophoretic separation of the reaction products was initiated by applying a constant current of  μA. The method employing a polyacrylamide-coated capillary and reverse polarity mode provided baseline resolution of substrates and products within a short separation time of less than 7 min. A 50 mM phosphate buffer (pH 6.5) was used for the separations and the products were detected by their UV absorbance at 210 nm. The Michaelis–Menten constants (Km) for the recombinant rat NTPDases 1, 2, and 3 obtained with this method were consistent with previously reported data. The inhibition studies revealed pronounced differences in the potency of reactive blue 2, pyridoxalphosphate-6-azophenyl-2-4-disulfonic acid (PPADS), suramin, and N6-diethyl-β,γ-dibromomethylene-ATP (ARL67156) towards the NTPDase isoforms. Notably, ARL67156 does not inhibit all NTPDases, having only a minor inhibitory effect on NTPDase2. Dipyridamole is not an inhibitor of the NTPDase isoforms investigated. The new method is fast and accurate, it requires only tiny amounts of material (nanoliter scale), no sample pretreatment and can be fully automated; thus it is clearly superior to the current standard methods

Structure-activity relationships of anthraquinone derivatives derived from bromaminic acid as inhibitors of ectonucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (E-NTPDases)

Reactive blue 2 (RB-2) had been characterized as a relatively potent ectonucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolase (E-NTPDase) inhibitor with some selectivity for NTPDase3. In search for the pharmacophore and to analyze structure-activity relationships we synthesized a series of truncated derivatives and analogs of RB-2, including 1-amino-2-sulfo-4-ar(alk)ylaminoanthraquinones, 1-amino-2-methyl-4-arylaminoanthraquinones, 1-amino-4-bromoanthraquinone 2-sulfonic acid esters and sulfonamides, and bis-(1-amino-4-bromoanthraquinone) sulfonamides, and investigated them in preparations of rat NTPDase1, 2, and 3 using a capillary electrophoresis assay. Several 1-amino-2-sulfo-4-ar(alk)ylaminoanthraquinone derivatives inhibited E-NTPDases in a concentration-dependent manner. The 2-sulfonate group was found to be required for inhibitory activity, since 2-methyl-substituted derivatives were inactive. 1-Amino-2-sulfo-4-p-chloroanilinoanthraquinone (18) was identified as a nonselective competitive blocker of NTPDases1, 2, and 3 (Ki 16–18 μM), while 1-amino-2-sulfo-4-(2-naphthylamino)anthraquinone (21) was a potent inhibitor with preference for NTPDase1 (Ki 0.328 μM) and NTPDase3 (Ki 2.22 μM). Its isomer, 1-amino-2-sulfo-4-(1-naphthylamino)anthraquinone (20), was a potent and selective inhibitor of rat NTPDase3 (Ki 1.5 μM)

Ectonucleotidases in Müller glial cells of the rodent retina: Involvement in inhibition of osmotic cell swelling

Extracellular nucleotides mediate glia-to-neuron signalling in the retina and are implicated in the volume regulation of retinal glial (Müller) cells under osmotic stress conditions. We investigated the expression and functional role of ectonucleotidases in Müller cells of the rodent retina by cell-swelling experiments, calcium imaging, and immuno- and enzyme histochemistry. The swelling of Müller cells under hypoosmotic stress was inhibited by activation of an autocrine purinergic signalling cascade. This cascade is initiated by exogenous glutamate and involves the consecutive activation of P2Y1 and adenosine A1 receptors, the action of ectoadenosine 5′-triphosphate (ATP)ases, and a nucleoside-transporter-mediated release of adenosine. Inhibition of ectoapyrases increased the ATP-evoked calcium responses in Müller cell endfeet. Müller cells were immunoreactive for nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (NTPDase)2 (but not NTPDase1), ecto-5′-nucleotidase, P2Y1, and A1 receptors. Enzyme histochemistry revealed that ATP but not adenosine 5′-diphosphate (ADP) is extracellularly metabolised in retinal slices of NTPDase1 knockout mice. NTPDase1 activity and protein is restricted to blood vessels, whereas activity of alkaline phosphatase is essentially absent at physiological pH. The data suggest that NTPDase2 is the major ATP-degrading ectonucleotidase of the retinal parenchyma. NTPDase2 expressed by Müller cells can be implicated in the regulation of purinergic calcium responses and cellular volume

Dogs Leaving the ICU Carry a Very Large Multi-Drug Resistant Enterococcal Population with Capacity for Biofilm Formation and Horizontal Gene Transfer

The enterococcal community from feces of seven dogs treated with antibiotics for 2–9 days in the veterinary intensive care unit (ICU) was characterized. Both, culture-based approach and culture-independent 16S rDNA amplicon 454 pyrosequencing, revealed an abnormally large enterococcal community: 1.4±0.8×108 CFU gram−1 of feces and 48.9±11.5% of the total 16,228 sequences, respectively. The diversity of the overall microbial community was very low which likely reflects a high selective antibiotic pressure. The enterococcal diversity based on 210 isolates was also low as represented by Enterococcus faecium (54.6%) and Enterococcus faecalis (45.4%). E. faecium was frequently resistant to enrofloxacin (97.3%), ampicillin (96.5%), tetracycline (84.1%), doxycycline (60.2%), erythromycin (53.1%), gentamicin (48.7%), streptomycin (42.5%), and nitrofurantoin (26.5%). In E. faecalis, resistance was common to tetracycline (59.6%), erythromycin (56.4%), doxycycline (53.2%), and enrofloxacin (31.9%). No resistance was detected to vancomycin, tigecycline, linezolid, and quinupristin/dalfopristin in either species. Many isolates carried virulence traits including gelatinase, aggregation substance, cytolysin, and enterococcal surface protein. All E. faecalis strains were biofilm formers in vitro and this phenotype correlated with the presence of gelE and/or esp. In vitro intra-species conjugation assays demonstrated that E. faecium were capable of transferring tetracycline, doxycycline, streptomycin, gentamicin, and erythromycin resistance traits to human clinical strains. Multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) of E. faecium strains showed very low genotypic diversity. Interestingly, three E. faecium clones were shared among four dogs suggesting their nosocomial origin. Furthermore, multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) of nine representative MLVA types revealed that six sequence types (STs) originating from five dogs were identical or closely related to STs of human clinical isolates and isolates from hospital outbreaks. It is recommended to restrict close physical contact between pets released from the ICU and their owners to avoid potential health risks

The Present and Future Role of Insect-Resistant Genetically Modified Maize in IPM

Commercial, genetically-modified (GM) maize was first planted in the United States (USA, 1996) and Canada (1997) but now is grown in 13 countries on a total of over 35 million hectares (\u3e24% of area worldwide). The first GM maize plants produced a Cry protein derived from the soil bacteriumBacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which made them resistant to European corn borer and other lepidopteran maize pests. New GM maize hybrids not only have resistance to lepidopteran pests but some have resistance to coleopteran pests and tolerance to specific herbicides. Growers are attracted to the Btmaize hybrids for their convenience and because of yield protection, reduced need for chemical insecticides, and improved grain quality. Yet, most growers worldwide still rely on traditional integrated pest management (IPM) methods to control maize pests. They must weigh the appeal of buying insect protection “in the bag” against questions regarding economics, environmental safety, and insect resistance management (IRM). Traditional management of maize insects and the opportunities and challenges presented by GM maize are considered as they relate to current and future insect-resistant products. Four countries, two that currently have commercialize Bt maize (USA and Spain) and two that do not (China and Kenya), are highlighted. As with other insect management tactics (e.g., insecticide use or tillage), GM maize should not be considered inherently compatible or incompatible with IPM. Rather, the effect of GM insect-resistance on maize IPM likely depends on how the technology is developed and used