Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue Tipe Seir Infeksi Ganda

Dengue adalah salah satu penyakit infeksi yang ditularkan ke manusia oleh gigitan nyamuk Aedes aegypti atau Aedes albopictus. Infeksi virus dengue berupa demam dengue, demam berdarah dengue dan Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS). Virus dengue mempunyai empat jenis serotipe yaitu: DEN_1, DEN_2, DEN_3, DEN_4. Pada model, akan dipelajari dinamika penyebaran penyakit demam berdarah dengue yang terjadi akibat adanya infeksi ganda yang disebut infeksi I dan infeksi II. Dari model kemudian akan ditentukan titik tetap. Selanjutnya dianalisis kestabilan dari masing-masing titik tetap dengan mempertimbangkan bilangan reproduksi dasar (ℛ0). Untuk menunjukkan perilaku populasi yang muncul dalam proses infeksi I dan infeksi II pada kondisi ℛ0<1 dan ℛ0>1, maka dilakukan simulasi. Selain itu, simulasi juga dilakukan untuk melihat pengaruh laju kematian nyamuk dan vaksinasi terhadap penyebaran penyakit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dengan meningkatnya laju kematian nyamuk, populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas rentan semakin meningkat dan populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas lainya semakin menurun. Sementara untuk vaksinasi, semakin meningkatnya efektivitas vaksin, manusia pada kelas rentan sudah semakin berkurang sehingga menyebabkan manusia pada kelas terpapar dan terinfeksi semakin berkurang. Hal ini disebabkan karena sudah banyak manusia yang sembu

MODEL MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE TIPE SEIR INFEKSI GANDA

Dengue adalah salah satu penyakit infeksi yang ditularkan ke manusia oleh gigitan nyamuk Aedes aegypti atau Aedes albopictus. Infeksi virus dengue berupa demam dengue, demam berdarah dengue dan Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS). Virus dengue mempunyai empat jenis serotipe yaitu: DEN_1, DEN_2, DEN_3, DEN_4. Pada model, akan dipelajari dinamika penyebaran penyakit demam berdarah dengue yang terjadi akibat adanya infeksi ganda yang disebut infeksi I dan infeksi II. Dari model kemudian akan ditentukan titik tetap. Selanjutnya dianalisis kestabilan dari masing-masing titik tetap dengan mempertimbangkan bilangan reproduksi dasar (ℛ0). Untuk menunjukkan perilaku populasi yang muncul dalam proses infeksi I dan infeksi II pada kondisi ℛ0<1 dan ℛ0>1, maka dilakukan simulasi. Selain itu, simulasi juga dilakukan untuk melihat pengaruh laju kematian nyamuk dan vaksinasi terhadap penyebaran penyakit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dengan meningkatnya laju kematian nyamuk, populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas rentan semakin meningkat dan populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas lainya semakin menurun. Sementara untuk vaksinasi, semakin meningkatnya efektivitas vaksin, manusia pada kelas rentan sudah semakin berkurang sehingga menyebabkan manusia pada kelas terpapar dan terinfeksi semakin berkurang. Hal ini disebabkan karena sudah banyak manusia yang sembu

Association of Patients’ Epidemiological Characteristics and Comorbidities with Severity and Related Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results of an Umbrella Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The objective of this study was to assess the association between patients’ epidemiological characteristics and comorbidities with SARS-CoV-2 infection severity and related mortality risk. An umbrella systematic review, including a meta-analysis examining the association between patients’ underlying conditions and severity (defined as need for hospitalization) and mortality of COVID-19, was performed. Studies were included if they reported pooled risk estimates of at least three underlying determinants for hospitalization, critical disease (ICU admission, mechanical ventilation), and hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Evidence was summarized as pooled odds ratios (pOR) for disease outcomes with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Sixteen systematic reviews investigating the possible associations of comorbidities with severity or death from COVID-19 disease were included. Hospitalization was associated with age > 60 years (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97–4.36), smoking habit (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97–4.36), and chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.94; 95% CI 2.14–4.04). Chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.82; 95% CI 1.92–4.14), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 2.74; 95% CI 1.59–4.74), and cardiovascular disease (pOR 2.44; 95% CI 1.97–3.01) were likely to be associated with increased risk of critical COVID-19. The highest risk of mortality was associated with cardiovascular disease (pOR 3.59; 95% CI 2.83–4.56), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 3.11; 95% CI 2.35–4.11), and chronic renal disease (pOR 3.02; 95% CI 2.61–3.49). In conclusion, this umbrella systematic review provides a comprehensive summary of meta-analyses examining the impact of patients’ characteristics on COVID-19 outcomes. Elderly patients and those cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic renal disease should be prioritized for pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis and early treatment

Substantial and sustained reduction in under-5 mortality, diarrhea, and pneumonia in Oshikhandass, Pakistan : Evidence from two longitudinal cohort studies 15 years apart

Funding Information: Study 1 was funded through the Applied Diarrheal Disease Research Program at Harvard Institute for International Development with a grant from USAID (Project 936–5952, Cooperative Agreement # DPE-5952-A-00-5073-00), and the Aga Khan Health Service, Northern Areas and Chitral, Pakistan. Study 2 was funded by the Pakistan US S&T Cooperative Agreement between the Pakistan Higher Education Commission (HEC) (No.4–421/PAK-US/HEC/2010/955, grant to the Karakoram International University) and US National Academies of Science (Grant Number PGA-P211012 from NAS to the Fogarty International Center). The funding bodies had no role in the design of the study, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or writing of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Stain-free identification of tissue pathology using a generative adversarial network to infer nanomechanical signatures

Intraoperative frozen section analysis can be used to improve the accuracy of tumour margin estimation during cancer resection surgery through rapid processing and pathological assessment of excised tissue. Its applicability is limited in some cases due to the additional risks associated with prolonged surgery, largely from the time-consuming staining procedure. Our work uses a measurable property of bulk tissue to bypass the staining process: as tumour cells proliferate, they influence the surrounding extra-cellular matrix, and the resulting change in elastic modulus provides a signature of the underlying pathology. In this work we accurately localise atomic force microscopy measurements of human liver tissue samples and train a generative adversarial network to infer elastic modulus from low-resolution images of unstained tissue sections. Pathology is predicted through unsupervised clustering of parameters characterizing the distributions of inferred values, achieving 89% accuracy for all samples based on the nominal assessment (n = 28), and 95% for samples that have been validated by two independent pathologists through post hoc staining (n = 20). Our results demonstrate that this technique could increase the feasibility of intraoperative frozen section analysis for use during resection surgery and improve patient outcomes

Clinical profiles of patients colonized or infected with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae isolates: a 20 month retrospective study at a Belgian University Hospital

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Description of the clinical pictures of patients colonized or infected by ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>isolates and admitted to hospital are rather scarce in Europe. However, a better delineation of the clinical patterns associated with the carriage of ESBL-producing isolates may allow healthcare providers to identify more rapidly at risk patients. This matter is of particular concern because of the growing proportion of ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>species isolates worldwide.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We undertook a descriptive analysis of 114 consecutive patients in whom ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>isolates were collected from clinical specimens over a 20-month period. Clinical data were obtained through retrospective analysis of medical record charts. Microbiological cultures were carried out by standard laboratory methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>strains after exclusion of duplicate isolates was 4.5% and the incidence rate was 4.3 cases/1000 patients admitted. Healthcare-associated acquisition was important (n = 104) while community-acquisition was less frequently found (n = 10). Among the former group, two-thirds of the patients were aged over 65 years and 24% of these were living in nursing homes. Sixty-eight (65%) of the patients with healthcare-associated ESBL, were considered clinically infected. In this group, the number and severity of co-morbidities was high, particularly including diabetes mellitus and chronic renal insufficiency. Other known risk factors for ESBL colonization or infection such as prior antibiotic exposure, urinary catheter or previous hospitalisation were also often found. The four main diagnostic categories were: urinary tract infections, lower respiratory tract infections, septicaemia and intra-abdominal infections. For hospitalized patients, the median hospital length of stay was 23 days and the average mortality rate during hospitalization was 13% (Confidence Interval 95%: 7-19). <it>Escherichia coli</it>, by far, accounted as the most common ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>species (77/114; [68%]) while CTX-M-1 group was by far the most prevalent ESBL enzyme (n = 56).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this retrospective study, the clinical profiles of patients carrying healthcare-associated ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriacae </it>is characterized by a high prevalence rate of several major co-morbidities and potential known risk factors. Both, the length of hospital stay and overall hospital mortality rates were particularly high. A prospective case-control matched study should be designed and performed in order to control for possible inclusion bias.</p

T2 Mapping from Super-Resolution-Reconstructed Clinical Fast Spin Echo Magnetic Resonance Acquisitions

Relaxometry studies in preterm and at-term newborns have provided insight into brain microstructure, thus opening new avenues for studying normal brain development and supporting diagnosis in equivocal neurological situations. However, such quantitative techniques require long acquisition times and therefore cannot be straightforwardly translated to in utero brain developmental studies. In clinical fetal brain magnetic resonance imaging routine, 2D low-resolution T2-weighted fast spin echo sequences are used to minimize the effects of unpredictable fetal motion during acquisition. As super-resolution techniques make it possible to reconstruct a 3D high-resolution volume of the fetal brain from clinical low-resolution images, their combination with quantitative acquisition schemes could provide fast and accurate T2 measurements. In this context, the present work demonstrates the feasibility of using super-resolution reconstruction from conventional T2-weighted fast spin echo sequences for 3D isotropic T2 mapping. A quantitative magnetic resonance phantom was imaged using a clinical T2-weighted fast spin echo sequence at variable echo time to allow for super-resolution reconstruction at every echo time and subsequent T2 mapping of samples whose relaxometric properties are close to those of fetal brain tissue. We demonstrate that this approach is highly repeatable, accurate and robust when using six echo times (total acquisition time under 9 minutes) as compared to gold-standard single-echo spin echo sequences (several hours for one single 2D slice)

Risk factors for treatment failure and mortality among hospitalized patients with complicated urinary tract infection: A multicenter retrospective cohort study (RESCUING study group)

Background. Complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs) are responsible for a major share of all antibiotic consumption in hospitals. We aim to describe risk factors for treatment failure and mortality among patients with cUTIs. Methods. A multinational, multicentre retrospective cohort study, conducted in 20 countries in Europe and the Middle East. Data were collected from patients' files on hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of cUTI during 2013-2014. Primary outcome was treatment failure, secondary outcomes included 30 days all-cause mortality,among other outcomes. Multivariable analysis using a logistic model and the hospital as a random variable was performed to identify independent predictors for these outcomes. Results. A total of 981 patients with cUTI were included. Treatment failure was observed in 26.6% (261/981), all cause 30-day mortality rate was 8.7% (85/976), most of these in patients with catheter related UTI (CaUTI). Risk factors for treatment failure in multivariable analysis were ICU admission (OR 5.07, 95% CI 3.18-8.07), septic shock (OR 1.92, 95% CI 0.93-3.98), corticosteroid treatment (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.12-3.54), bedridden (OR 2.11, 95%CI 1.4-3.18), older age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.0071.03-), metastatic cancer (OR 2.89, 95% CI 1.46-5.73) and CaUTI (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.04-2.11). Management variables, such as inappropriate empirical antibiotic treatment or days to starting antibiotics were not associated with treatment failure or 30-day mortality. More patients with pyelonephritis were given appropriate empirical antibiotic therapy than other CaUTI [110/171; 64.3% vs. 116/270; 43%, p &lt;0.005], nevertheless, this afforded no advantage in treatment failure rates nor mortality in these patients. Conclusions. In patients with cUTI we found no benefit of early appropriate empirical treatment on survival rates or other outcomes. Physicians might consider supportive treatment and watchful waiting in stable patients until the causative pathogen is defined