Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared the cost-efficiency of four different sampling design alternatives (simple random sampling, regression estimators, stratified sampling, 2-phase sampling with regression estimators) that have been proposed in the scope of REDD. Three of the design alternatives provide for a combination of in-situ and earth-observation data. Under different settings of remote sensing coverage, cost per field plot, cost of remote sensing imagery, correlation between attributes quantified in remote sensing and field data, as well as population variability and the percent standard error over total survey cost was calculated. The cost-efficiency of forest carbon stock assessments is driven by the sampling design chosen. Our results indicate that the cost of remote sensing imagery is decisive for the cost-efficiency of a sampling design. The variability of the sample population impairs cost-efficiency, but does not reverse the pattern of cost-efficiency of the individual design alternatives.</p> <p>Conclusions, brief summary and potential implications</p> <p>Our results clearly indicate that it is important to consider cost-efficiency in the development of forest carbon stock assessments and the selection of remote sensing techniques. The development of MRV-systems for REDD need to be based on a sound optimization process that compares different data sources and sampling designs with respect to their cost-efficiency. This helps to reduce the uncertainties related with the quantification of carbon stocks and to increase the financial benefits from adopting a REDD regime.</p

Cosmological Constraints from a Combination of Galaxy Clustering and Lensing -- III. Application to SDSS Data

We simultaneously constrain cosmology and galaxy bias using measurements of galaxy abundances, galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We use the conditional luminosity function (which describes the halo occupation statistics as function of galaxy luminosity) combined with the halo model (which describes the non-linear matter field in terms of its halo building blocks) to describe the galaxy-dark matter connection. We explicitly account for residual redshift space distortions in the projected galaxy-galaxy correlation functions, and marginalize over uncertainties in the scale dependence of the halo bias and the detailed structure of dark matter haloes. Under the assumption of a spatially flat, vanilla {\Lambda}CDM cosmology, we focus on constraining the matter density, {\Omega}m, and the normalization of the matter power spectrum, {\sigma}8, and we adopt WMAP7 priors for the spectral index, the Hubble parameter, and the baryon density. We obtain that \Omegam = 0.278_{-0.026}^{+0.023} and {\sigma}8 = 0.763_{-0.049}^{+0.064} (95% CL). These results are robust to uncertainties in the radial number density distribution of satellite galaxies, while allowing for non-Poisson satellite occupation distributions results in a slightly lower value for {\sigma}8 (0.744_{-0.047}^{+0.056}). These constraints are in excellent agreement (at the 1{\sigma} level) with the cosmic microwave background constraints from WMAP. This demonstrates that the use of a realistic and accurate model for galaxy bias, down to the smallest non-linear scales currently observed in galaxy surveys, leads to results perfectly consistent with the vanilla {\Lambda}CDM cosmology.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables, submitted to MNRA

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

Acknowledgments We thank Reik V. Donner for inspiring suggestions that initialized the work presented herein. Jan H. Feldhoff is credited for providing us with the STARS simulation data and for his contributions to fruitful discussions. Comments by the anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged as they led to substantial improvements of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effects of Once-Weekly Exenatide on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes.

Abstract BACKGROUND: The cardiovascular effects of adding once-weekly treatment with exenatide to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes are unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with type 2 diabetes, with or without previous cardiovascular disease, to receive subcutaneous injections of extended-release exenatide at a dose of 2 mg or matching placebo once weekly. The primary composite outcome was the first occurrence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. The coprimary hypotheses were that exenatide, administered once weekly, would be noninferior to placebo with respect to safety and superior to placebo with respect to efficacy. RESULTS: In all, 14,752 patients (of whom 10,782 [73.1%] had previous cardiovascular disease) were followed for a median of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 2.2 to 4.4). A primary composite outcome event occurred in 839 of 7356 patients (11.4%; 3.7 events per 100 person-years) in the exenatide group and in 905 of 7396 patients (12.2%; 4.0 events per 100 person-years) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83 to 1.00), with the intention-to-treat analysis indicating that exenatide, administered once weekly, was noninferior to placebo with respect to safety (P<0.001 for noninferiority) but was not superior to placebo with respect to efficacy (P=0.06 for superiority). The rates of death from cardiovascular causes, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal or nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and the incidence of acute pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, medullary thyroid carcinoma, and serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes with or without previous cardiovascular disease, the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events did not differ significantly between patients who received exenatide and those who received placebo. (Funded by Amylin Pharmaceuticals; EXSCEL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01144338 .)