58 research outputs found
Solar-Cycle Characteristics Examined in Separate Hemispheres: Phase, Gnevyshev Gap, and Length of Minimum
Research results from solar-dynamo models show the northern and southern
hemispheres may evolve separately throughout the solar cycle. The observed
phase lag between the hemispheres provides information regarding the strength
of hemispheric coupling. Using hemispheric sunspot-area and sunspot-number data
from Cycles 12 - 23, we determine how out of phase the separate hemispheres are
during the rising, maximum, and declining period of each solar cycle.
Hemispheric phase differences range from 0 - 11, 0 - 14, and 2 - 19 months for
the rising, maximum, and declining periods, respectively. The phases appear
randomly distributed between zero months (in phase) and half of the rise (or
decline) time of the solar cycle. An analysis of the Gnevyshev gap is conducted
to determine if the double-peak is caused by the averaging of two hemispheres
that are out of phase. We confirm previous findings that the Gnevyshev gap is a
phenomenon that occurs in the separate hemispheres and is not due to a
superposition of sunspot indices from hemispheres slightly out of phase. Cross
hemispheric coupling could be strongest at solar minimum, when there are large
quantities of magnetic flux at the Equator. We search for a correlation between
the hemispheric phase difference near the end of the solar cycle and the length
of solar-cycle minimum, but found none. Because magnetic flux diffusion across
the Equator is a mechanism by which the hemispheres couple, we measured the
magnetic flux crossing the Equator by examining magnetograms for Solar Cycles
21 - 23. We find, on average, a surplus of northern hemisphere magnetic flux
crossing during the mid-declining phase of each solar cycle. However, we find
no correlation between magnitude of magnetic flux crossing the Equator, length
of solar minima, and phase lag between the hemispheres.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure
Multi-timescale Solar Cycles and the Possible Implications
Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during
1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle
(Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4,
respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an
extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar
cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its
apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe
cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The
comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES
classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is
defined as X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84
GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare,
the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most
powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some
discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure
Evolution of active and polar photospheric magnetic fields during the rise of Cycle 24 compared to previous cycles
The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase
and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the
behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms
from the NSO's three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term
Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM), the
Spectromagnetograph and the 512-Channel Magnetograph instruments, and
longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the Mt. Wilson 150-foot tower. We
analyzed 37 years of observations from these two observatories that have been
observing daily, weather permitting, since 1974, offering an opportunity to
study the evolving relationship between the active region and polar fields in
some detail over several solar cycles. It is found that the annual averages of
a proxy for the active region poloidal magnetic field strength, the magnetic
field strength of the high-latitude poleward streams, and the time derivative
of the polar field strength are all well correlated in each hemisphere. These
results are based on statistically significant cyclical patterns in the active
region fields and are consistent with the Babcock-Leighton phenomenological
model for the solar activity cycle. There was more hemispheric asymmetry in the
activity level, as measured by total and maximum active region flux, during
late Cycle 23 (after around 2004), when the southern hemisphere was more
active, and Cycle 24 up to the present, when the northern hemisphere has been
more active, than at any other time since 1974. The active region net proxy
poloidal fields effectively disappeared in both hemispheres around 2004, and
the polar fields did not become significantly stronger after this time. We see
evidence that the process of Cycle 24 field reversal has begun at both poles.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic
Physics in the Real Universe: Time and Spacetime
The Block Universe idea, representing spacetime as a fixed whole, suggests
the flow of time is an illusion: the entire universe just is, with no special
meaning attached to the present time. This view is however based on
time-reversible microphysical laws and does not represent macro-physical
behaviour and the development of emergent complex systems, including life,
which do indeed exist in the real universe. When these are taken into account,
the unchanging block universe view of spacetime is best replaced by an evolving
block universe which extends as time evolves, with the potential of the future
continually becoming the certainty of the past. However this time evolution is
not related to any preferred surfaces in spacetime; rather it is associated
with the evolution of proper time along families of world linesComment: 28 pages, including 9 Figures. Major revision in response to referee
comment
The Magnetic Sun: Reversals and Long-Term Variations
A didactic introduction to current thinking on some aspects of the solar
dynamo is given for geophysicists and planetary scientists.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures; Space Science Rev., in pres
A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones
The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is
determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar
rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted
and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears
to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a
function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are
plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then
most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear.
The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to
determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times
of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative
to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence
upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in
its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no
significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of
variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave
mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the
equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.Comment: 12 pages, 7 color figure
The Opportunity Cost of the Conservation Reserve Program: A Kansas Land Example
The effects of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on farmland values is investigated using a set of parcel-level data for land sales in Kansas over the period 1998 to 2014. The sales data are used to estimate a hedonic model of land values that allows for the opportunity cost of CRP enrollment to vary across space and time. Factors impacting the opportunity costs include the relative productivity of land, returns to farming, and the time remaining under the CRP contracts. We find that the discount associated with having land under CRP contract averages 7%
Recovering Joys Law as a Function of Solar Cycle, Hemisphere, and Longitude
Bipolar active regions in both hemispheres tend to be tilted with respect to
the East West equator of the Sun in accordance with Joys law that describes the
average tilt angle as a function of latitude. Mt. Wilson observatory data from
1917 to 1985 are used to analyze the active-region tilt angle as a function of
solar cycle, hemisphere, and longitude, in addition to the more common
dependence on latitude. Our main results are as follows: i) We recommend a
revision of Joys law toward a weaker dependence on latitude (slope of 0.13 to
0.26) and without forcing the tilt to zero at the Equator. ii) We determine
that the hemispheric mean tilt value of active regions varies with each solar
cycle, although the noise from a stochastic process dominates and does not
allow for a determination of the slope of Joys law on an 11-year time scale.
iii) The hemispheric difference in mean tilt angles, 1.1 degrees + 0.27, over
Cycles 16 to 21 was significant to a three-sigma level, with average tilt
angles in the northern and southern hemispheres of 4.7 degrees + 0.26 and 3.6
degrees + 0.27 respectively. iv) Area-weighted mean tilt angles normalized by
latitude for Cycles 15 to 21 anticorrelate with cycle strength for the southern
hemisphere and whole-Sun data, confirming previous results by Dasi-Espuig,
Solanki, Krivova, et al. (2010, Astron. Astrophys. 518, A7). The northern
hemispheric mean tilt angles do not show a dependence on cycle strength. vi)
Mean tilt angles do not show a dependence on longitude for any hemisphere or
cycle. In addition, the standard deviation of the mean tilt is 29 to 31 degrees
for all cycles and hemispheres indicating that the scatter is due to the same
consistent process even if the mean tilt angles vary.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 3 table
Modeling the Subsurface Structure of Sunspots
While sunspots are easily observed at the solar surface, determining their
subsurface structure is not trivial. There are two main hypotheses for the
subsurface structure of sunspots: the monolithic model and the cluster model.
Local helioseismology is the only means by which we can investigate
subphotospheric structure. However, as current linear inversion techniques do
not yet allow helioseismology to probe the internal structure with sufficient
confidence to distinguish between the monolith and cluster models, the
development of physically realistic sunspot models are a priority for
helioseismologists. This is because they are not only important indicators of
the variety of physical effects that may influence helioseismic inferences in
active regions, but they also enable detailed assessments of the validity of
helioseismic interpretations through numerical forward modeling. In this paper,
we provide a critical review of the existing sunspot models and an overview of
numerical methods employed to model wave propagation through model sunspots. We
then carry out an helioseismic analysis of the sunspot in Active Region 9787
and address the serious inconsistencies uncovered by
\citeauthor{gizonetal2009}~(\citeyear{gizonetal2009,gizonetal2009a}). We find
that this sunspot is most probably associated with a shallow, positive
wave-speed perturbation (unlike the traditional two-layer model) and that
travel-time measurements are consistent with a horizontal outflow in the
surrounding moat.Comment: 73 pages, 19 figures, accepted by Solar Physic
Physics of Solar Prominences: II - Magnetic Structure and Dynamics
Observations and models of solar prominences are reviewed. We focus on
non-eruptive prominences, and describe recent progress in four areas of
prominence research: (1) magnetic structure deduced from observations and
models, (2) the dynamics of prominence plasmas (formation and flows), (3)
Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) waves in prominences and (4) the formation and
large-scale patterns of the filament channels in which prominences are located.
Finally, several outstanding issues in prominence research are discussed, along
with observations and models required to resolve them.Comment: 75 pages, 31 pictures, review pape
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