Frequency-dependent selection predicts patterns of radiations and biodiversity

Most empirical studies support a decline in speciation rates through time, although evidence for constant speciation rates also exists. Declining rates have been explained by invoking niche-filling processes, whereas constant rates have been attributed to non-adaptive processes such as sexual selection, mutation, and dispersal. Trends in speciation rate and the processes underlying it remain unclear, representing a critical information gap in understanding patterns of global diversity. Here we show that the speciation rate is driven by frequency dependent selection. We used a frequency-dependent and DNA sequence-based model of populations and genetic-distance-based speciation, in the absence of adaptation to ecological niches. We tested the frequency-dependent selection mechanism using cichlid fish and Darwin's finches, two classic model systems for which speciation rates and richness data exist. Using negative frequency dependent selection, our model both predicts the declining speciation rate found in cichlid fish and explains their species richness. For groups like the Darwin's finches, in which speciation rates are constant and diversity is lower, the speciation rate is better explained by a model without frequency-dependent selection. Our analysis shows that differences in diversity are driven by larger incipient species abundance (and consequent lower extinction rates) with frequency-dependent selection. These results demonstrate that mutations, genetic-distance-based speciation, sexual and frequency-dependent selection are sufficient not only for promoting rapid proliferation of new species, but also for maintaining the high diversity observed in natural systems

Speciation in little: the role of range and body size in the diversification of Malagasy mantellid frogs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The rate and mode of lineage diversification might be shaped by clade-specific traits. In Madagascar, many groups of organisms are characterized by tiny distribution ranges and small body sizes, and this high degree of microendemism and miniaturization parallels a high species diversity in some of these groups. We here investigate the geographic patterns characterizing the radiation of the frog family Mantellidae that is virtually endemic to Madagascar. We integrate a newly reconstructed near-complete species-level timetree of the Mantellidae with georeferenced distribution records and maximum male body size data to infer the influence of these life-history traits on each other and on mantellid diversification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We reconstructed a molecular phylogeny based on nuclear and mitochondrial DNA for 257 species and candidate species of the mantellid frog radiation. Based on this phylogeny we identified 53 well-supported pairs of sister species that we used for phylogenetic comparative analyses, along with whole tree-based phylogenetic comparative methods. Sister species within the Mantellidae diverged at 0.2-14.4 million years ago and more recently diverged sister species had geographical range centroids more proximate to each other, independently of their current sympatric or allopatric occurrence. The largest number of sister species pairs had non-overlapping ranges, but several examples of young microendemic sister species occurring in full sympatry suggest the possibility of non-allopatric speciation. Range sizes of species included in the sister species comparisons increased with evolutionary age, as did range size differences between sister species, which rejects peripatric speciation. For the majority of mantellid sister species and the whole mantellid radiation, range and body sizes were associated with each other and small body sizes were linked to higher mitochondrial nucleotide substitution rates and higher clade diversity. In contrast, small range sizes were unexpectedly associated with a slow-down of mitochondrial substitution rates.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Based on these results we define a testable hypothesis under which small body sizes result in limited dispersal capabilities and low physiological tolerances, causing smaller and more strongly fragmented ranges. This can be thought to facilitate reproductive isolation and thus favor speciation. Contrary to the expectation of the faster speciation of such microendemic phenotype species, we only found small body sizes of mantellid frogs to be linked to higher diversification and substitution rates, but not small range sizes. A joint analysis of various species-rich regional anuran radiations might provide enough species with all combinations of range and body sizes for a more conclusive test of this hypothesis.</p

A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide

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Universal Artifacts Affect the Branching of Phylogenetic Trees, Not Universal Scaling Laws

The superficial resemblance of phylogenetic trees to other branching structures allows searching for macroevolutionary patterns. However, such trees are just statistical inferences of particular historical events. Recent meta-analyses report finding regularities in the branching pattern of phylogenetic trees. But is this supported by evidence, or are such regularities just methodological artifacts? If so, is there any signal in a phylogeny?In order to evaluate the impact of polytomies and imbalance on tree shape, the distribution of all binary and polytomic trees of up to 7 taxa was assessed in tree-shape space. The relationship between the proportion of outgroups and the amount of imbalance introduced with them was assessed applying four different tree-building methods to 100 combinations from a set of 10 ingroup and 9 outgroup species, and performing covariance analyses. The relevance of this analysis was explored taking 61 published phylogenies, based on nucleic acid sequences and involving various taxa, taxonomic levels, and tree-building methods.All methods of phylogenetic inference are quite sensitive to the artifacts introduced by outgroups. However, published phylogenies appear to be subject to a rather effective, albeit rather intuitive control against such artifacts. The data and methods used to build phylogenetic trees are varied, so any meta-analysis is subject to pitfalls due to their uneven intrinsic merits, which translate into artifacts in tree shape. The binary branching pattern is an imposition of methods, and seldom reflects true relationships in intraspecific analyses, yielding artifactual polytomies in short trees. Above the species level, the departure of real trees from simplistic random models is caused at least by two natural factors--uneven speciation and extinction rates; and artifacts such as choice of taxa included in the analysis, and imbalance introduced by outgroups and basal paraphyletic taxa. This artifactual imbalance accounts for tree shape convergence of large trees.There is no evidence for any universal scaling in the tree of life. Instead, there is a need for improved methods of tree analysis that can be used to discriminate the noise due to outgroups from the phylogenetic signal within the taxon of interest, and to evaluate realistic models of evolution, correcting the retrospective perspective and explicitly recognizing extinction as a driving force. Artifacts are pervasive, and can only be overcome through understanding the structure and biological meaning of phylogenetic trees. Catalan Abstract in Translation S1