Proximity (Mis)perception: Public Awareness of Nuclear, Refinery, and Fracking Sites

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordWhether on grounds of perceived safety, aesthetics, or overall quality of life, residents may wish to be aware of nearby energy sites such as nuclear reactors, refineries, and fracking wells. Yet people are not always accurate in their impressions of proximity. Indeed, our data show that only 54% of Americans living within 25 miles of a nuclear site say they do, and even fewer fracking-proximal (30%) and refinery-proximal (24%) residents respond accurately. In this article, we analyze factors that could either help people form more accurate perceptions or distort their impressions of proximity. We evaluate these hypotheses using a large national survey sample and corresponding geographic information system (GIS) data. Results show that among those living in close proximity to energy sites, those who perceive greater risk are less likely to report living nearby. Conversely, social contact with employees of these industries increases perceived proximity regardless of actual distance. These relationships are consistent across each site type we examine. Other potential factors—such as local news use—may play a role in proximity perception on a case-by-case basis. Our findings are an important step toward a more generalizable understanding of how the public forms perceptions of proximity to risk sites, showing multiple potential mechanisms of bias.European Union Horizon 202

High-status lobbyists are most likely to overrate their success

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record Overconfidence helps individuals reach higher status within social groups by making them seem more competent regardless of objective ability, so this bias may be especially prevalent among status-oriented members of elite communities. Based on this premise, we explore whether lobbyists in the USA misperceive their success. Using models that (1) control for legislative outcome when predicting self-assessed policy success and (2) compare self-assessed policy success on specific proposals against the average success reported by all lobbyists working on the same side of an issue, we identify systematic tendencies to overrate achievements. Lobbyists with higher incomes, who reside in Washington, DC, USA, have congressional experience and who engage in a broader range of activities are more likely to overrate their success. Public interest group lobbyists tend to underestimate success. We conclude that political elites are subject to the same biases as others when evaluating their performance, and these biases may be largely status-driven.European Research Counci

Conversion messages and attitude change: Strong arguments, not costly signals

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordA conversion narrative recounts the process that led the speaker to reject one belief for a different, usually incompatible, alternative. However, researchers know little about whether, when, and, if so, how such messages affect audience attitudes about controversial science. Using a general US population-sample experiment, we assessed the attitudinal impact of three versions of a statement by Mark Lynas, an environmental activist who converted from opposing to championing genetically modified crops. Participants were exposed to (1) a one-sided pro-genetically modified message by Lynas, (2) a two-sided pro-genetically modified message in which Lynas indicates but does not detail his conversion, or (3) a two-sided pro-genetically modified message in which Lynas explains the process that prompted his conversion. We find that his conversion messages influenced attitudes by way of perceived argument strength, but not speaker credibility. This finding implies such messages induce greater elaboration, which may lead to durable attitudes that predict behavior.Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of PennsylvaniaEuropean Union Horizon 202

Shifting medical guidelines: Compliance and spillover effects for revised antibiotic recommendations

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData sharing statement: All data and analysis scripts, along with materials and analysis plan, are permanently available at the site of the trial registration. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/8NFWCRationale: Experts have recently argued that guidelines to take the full course of antibiotics are due for revision, instead recommending that patients stop when they feel better. It is unknown how communicating revised guidelines from medical experts about how long to take a course of antibiotics will affect beliefs, behavior, and trust in guidelines more generally. Objective. This study seeks to understand how revisions to long standing advice impacts the beliefs, behavior, and trust toward such guidelines from medical experts. Method: In a pre-registered experiment, we use a national sample of UK participants (N = 1,263) to test the effects of a message that reverses the prior full-course guideline (versus a status quo message to take the full course). We also test a secondary intervention that emphasizes that medical guidance and evidence may change over time. Results: Early stoppage messages significantly shifted personal beliefs and perceived expert consensus about early stoppage (a shift of 16%, 95% CI: 13.8% to 17.9%, p <.001) and behavioral intent (a shift of 19%, 95% CI: 15.3 to 21.8%, p < .001) in the intended direction. Yet, the new guideline also slightly decreased acceptance of uncertainty about future guidelines (a decrease of 2%, 95% CI: 0.2% to 3.1%, p = .022) and general intention to comply with other guidelines in the future (a decrease of 6%, 95% CI: 2.6% to 8.4%, p < .001); it did not affect perceptions of medical researchers’ or doctors’ credibility or respondents’ epistemic efficacy. Prior belief about early stoppage did not moderate receptivity to messages. Notably, though, we also find receptivity to early stoppage messages was contingent on deference to experts. We find no effect of a secondary intervention that emphasizes that medical guidance and evidence may change over time. Conclusions. Overall, our findings suggest the (U.K.) public is likely to accept new guidelines that change long standing advice to take a full course of antibiotics. While respondents show wariness about further future revisions, these data do not show that changing guidelines undermines trust in the experts that produce them

Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this recordData Availability: Data files and scripts necessary to replicate the results in this article have been made available at the following Open Science Framework repository (https://osf.io/xygwt/)We examine the role of overconfidence in news judgment using two large nationally representative survey samples. First, we show that three in four Americans overestimate their relative ability to distinguish between legitimate and false news headlines; respondents place themselves 22 percentiles higher than warranted on average. This overconfidence is, in turn, correlated with consequential differences in real-world beliefs and behavior. We show that overconfident individuals are more likely to visit untrustworthy websites in behavioral data; to fail to successfully distinguish between true and false claims about current events in survey questions; and to report greater willingness to like or share false content on social media, especially when it is politically congenial. In all, these results paint a worrying picture: The individuals who are least equipped to identify false news content are also the least aware of their own limitations and, therefore, more susceptible to believing it and spreading it further.Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth CollegeCarnegie Corporation of New YorkWeidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University in St. Loui

Partisanship and public opinion of COVID-19: Does emphasizing Trump and his administration’s response to the pandemic affect public opinion about the coronavirus?

This is the final version. Available on open access from Routledge via the DOI in this recordDoes emphasizing the pandemic as a partisan issue polarize factual beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral intentions concerning the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic? To answer this question, we conducted a preregistered survey experiment with a “questions as treatment” design in late March 2020 with 1,587 U.S. respondents recruited via Prime Panel. Respondents were randomly assigned to answer several questions about then-president Donald J. Trump and the coronavirus (including receiving an information cue by evaluating one of Trump’s tweets) either at the beginning of the survey (treated condition) or at the end of the survey (control condition). Receiving these questions at the beginning of the survey had no direct effect on COVID-19 factual beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral intentions.European Union Horizon 202

Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005–2019), by area deprivation profile: linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals

BACKGROUND: Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK. METHODS: Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000–2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups. FINDINGS: In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5–104 were included, from a possible 2.9 m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13.2 years (12.7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69.7%) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (−0.45 years (99% CI: −0.45, −0.44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (−1.98 years (99% CI: −2.01, −1.95)). INTERPRETATION: This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and Administrative Data Research Wales

Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005-2019), by area deprivation profile : linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals

Funding: This work was supported by Health Data Research UK (HDRUK) Measuring and Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (MUrMuRUK, HDR-9006; CFC0110). Health Data Research UK (HDR-9006) is funded by: UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. This work also was co-funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) through grant number MR/S027750/1. The work was supported by the ADR Wales programme of work, part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1).Background  Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK. Methods  Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000-2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups. Findings  In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5-104 were included, from a possible 2·9m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13·2 years (12·7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69·7 %) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (-0·45 years (99%CI:-0·45,-0·44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (-1·98 years (99%CI:-2·01,-1·95)). Interpretation  This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Analysis of disease clusters and patient outcomes in people with multiple long term conditions using hypergraphs.

Objectives Having multiple long term health conditions (MLTCs), also known as multimorbidity, is becoming increasingly common as populations age. Understanding how clusters of diseases are likely to lead to other diseases and the effect of multimorbidity on healthcare resource use (HRU) will be of great importance as this trend continues. Approach Graph-based approaches, also called network analysis in the literature, have been used previously to study multimorbidity. The use of hypergraphs, which are generalisations of graphs where edges can connect to any number of nodes, and their application to the problem of understanding multimorbidity will be discussed. Analysis using hypergraphs was carried out using a population-scale cohort of people in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank to find the diseases and disease sets which are most important based on a measure of prevalence and measures of healthcare resource utilisation in secondary care. Results The most important sets of diseases based on the centrality of a hypergraph weighted by a measure of prevalence featured hypertension, and the most important was hypertension and diabetes. The most important sets of diseases based on the centrality of a hypergraph weighted by a measure of unplanned inpatient HRU were arrhythmia, heart failure and hypertension while for a measure of outpatient HRU the most important set of diseases was diabetes and hypertension. Conclusion Hypergraphs are very flexible and general mathematical objects and there is still a great deal of development that can be done to make them more useful in epidemiological settings and beyond

Neuroendocrine carcinoma of the seminal vesicles presenting with Lambert Eaton syndrome: a case report

Lambert Eaton syndrome may be the initial symptom of a seminal vesicle mass. Diagnosis needs to be obtained by transrectal biopsy and chemotherapy may delay progression of the tumor