SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.Cardiolog

Curvature-bias corrections using a pseudomass method

Momentum measurements for very high momentum charged particles, such as muons from electroweak vector boson decays, are particularly susceptible to charge-dependent curvature biases that arise from misalignments of tracking detectors. Low momentum charged particles used in alignment procedures have limited sensitivity to coherent displacements of such detectors, and therefore are unable to fully constrain these misalignments to the precision necessary for studies of electroweak physics. Additional approaches are therefore required to understand and correct for these effects. In this paper the curvature biases present at the LHCb detector are studied using the pseudomass method in proton-proton collision data recorded at centre of mass energy √(s)=13 TeV during 2016, 2017 and 2018. The biases are determined using Z→μ + μ - decays in intervals defined by the data-taking period, magnet polarity and muon direction. Correcting for these biases, which are typically at the 10-4 GeV-1 level, improves the Z→μ + μ - mass resolution by roughly 18% and eliminates several pathological trends in the kinematic-dependence of the mean dimuon invariant mass

Study of CP violation in B0 → DK⋆(892)0 decays with D → Kπ(ππ), ππ(ππ), and KK final states

A measurement of CP-violating observables associated with the interference of B0 → D0K⋆ (892)0 and B0 → D¯ 0K⋆ (892)0 decay amplitudes is performed in the D0 → K∓π ±(π +π −), D0 → π +π −(π +π −), and D0 → K+K− fnal states using data collected by the LHCb experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb−1 . CP-violating observables related to the interference of B0 s → D0K¯ ⋆ (892)0 and B0 s → D¯ 0K¯ ⋆ (892)0 are also measured, but no evidence for interference is found. The B0 observables are used to constrain the parameter space of the CKM angle γ and the hadronic parameters r DK⋆ B0 and δ DK⋆ B0 with inputs from other measurements. In a combined analysis, these measurements allow for four solutions in the parameter space, only one of which is consistent with the world average

Mass distribution of hydrodynamic jets produced on the national ignition facility

The production of supersonic jets of material via the interaction of a strong shock wave with a spatially localized density perturbation is a common feature of inertial confinement fusion and astrophysics. The spatial structure and mass evolution of supersonic jets has previously been investigated in detail [J. M. Foster et. al, Phys. Plasmas 9, 2251 (2002) and B. E. Blue et. al, Phys. Plasmas 12, 056312 (2005)]. In this paper, the results from the first series of hydrodynamic experiments will be presented in which the mass distribution within the jet was quantified. In these experiments, two of the first four beams of NIF are used to drive a 40 Mbar shock wave into millimeter scale aluminum targets backed by 100 mg/cc carbon aerogel foam. The remaining beams are delayed in time and are used to provide a point-projection x-ray backlighter source for diagnosing the structure of the jet. Comparisons between data and simulations using several codes are presented