75 research outputs found
An analysis of Australia's carbon pollution reduction scheme
The authors review the decision-making since the Labour Government came into office (November 2007). The Australian Governmentâs âCarbon Pollution Reduction Schemeâ White Paper (15 December 2008) proposes that an Australian Emissions Trading Scheme (AETS) be implemented in mid-2010. Acknowledging that the scheme is comprehensive, the paper finds that in many cases, Australia will take a softer approach to climate change through the AETS than the European Union ETS(EUETS). The paper assesses key issues in the White Paper such as emissions reduction targets, GHG coverage, sectoral coverage, inclusion of unlimited quantities of offsets from Kyoto international markets and exclusion of deforestation activities
Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy
We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable
and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is
presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and
systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of
globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude,
with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may
have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky
Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the
second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the
HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The
relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level
and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax
measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance
modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are
studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of
low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and
Space Scienc
Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming
Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershedâestuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bayâs main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface and bottom between the late 1980s and late 2010s (0.02 +/- 0.02C/year, mean +/- 1 standard error), with elevated summer rates (0.04 +/- 0.01C/year) and lower rates of winter warming (0.01 +/- 0.01C/year). Most (~85%) of this estuarine warming is driven by atmospheric effects. The secondary influence of ocean warming increases with proximity to the Bay mouth, where it accounts for more than half of summer warming in bottom waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced summer warming, and the influence of riverine warming has been limited to the heads of tidal tributaries. Future rates of warming in Chesapeake Bay will depend not only on global atmospheric trends, but also on regional circulation patterns in mid-Atlantic waters, which are currently warming faster than the atmosphere.
Supporting model data available at: https://doi.org/10.25773/c774-a36
Population, Land Use and Deforestation in the Pan Amazon Basin: a Comparison of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, PerĂș and Venezuela
This paper discusses the linkages between population change, land use, and deforestation in the Amazon regions of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, PerĂș, and Venezuela. We begin with a brief discussion of theories of populationâenvironment linkages, and then focus on the case of deforestation in the PanAmazon. The core of the paper reviews available data on deforestation, population growth, migration and land use in order to see how well land cover change reflects demographic and agricultural change. The data indicate that population dynamics and net migration exhibit to deforestation in some states of the basin but not others. We then discuss other explanatory factors for deforestation, and find a close correspondence between land use and deforestation, which suggests that land use is loosely tied to demographic dynamics and mediates the influence of population on deforestation. We also consider national political economic contexts of Amazon change in the six countries, and find contrasting contexts, which also helps to explain the limited demographic-deforestation correspondence. The paper closes by noting general conclusions based on the data, topics in need of further research and recent policy proposals.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42720/1/10668_2003_Article_6977.pd
The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set
Background
Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables.
Methods
Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set.
Results
Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15â0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15â0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58â0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48â0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34â0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of â€5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (pâ<â0.001).
Conclusions
The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy
Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19
Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genesâincluding reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)âin critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease
Climate change impacts on Australia and the benefits of early action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions
In this report commissioned for the Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change, CSIRO scientists suggest that future emissions trajectories indicates that, left unchecked, human greenhouse gas emissions will increase several fold over the 21st century. As a consequence, Australiaâs annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4â2.0°C above 1990 levels by the year 2030, and 1â6°C by 2070. This technical report outlines the likely impacts on Australia of climate change, and the benefits of global emissions reductions
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