Learned multi-stability in mechanical networks

We contrast the distinct frameworks of materials design and physical learning in creating elastic networks with desired stable states. In design, the desired states are specified in advance and material parameters can be optimized on a computer with this knowledge. In learning, the material physically experiences the desired stable states in sequence, changing the material so as to stabilize each additional state. We show that while designed states are stable in networks of linear Hookean springs, sequential learning requires specific non-linear elasticity. We find that such non-linearity stabilizes states in which strain is zero in some springs and large in others, thus playing the role of Bayesian priors used in sparse statistical regression. Our model shows how specific material properties allow continuous learning of new functions through deployment of the material itself

Load-shortening behavior of an initially curved eccentrically loaded column

To explore the feasibility of using buckled columns to provide a soft support system for simulating a free-free boundary condition in dynamic testing, the nonlinear load-shortening behavior of initially imperfect, eccentrically loaded slender columns is analyzed. Load-shortening curves are obtained for various combinations of load eccentricity and uniform initial curvature and are compared, for reference purposes, with the limiting case of the classical elastica. Results for numerous combinations of initial curvature and load eccentricity show that, over a wide range of shortening, an axially loaded slender column exhibits load-deflection compliance which is of the same order as that of a straight but otherwise identical cantilever beam under lateral tip loading

Modeling, Analysis, and Optimization Issues for Large Space Structures

Topics concerning the modeling, analysis, and optimization of large space structures are discussed including structure-control interaction, structural and structural dynamics modeling, thermal analysis, testing, and design

Using conditional kernel density estimation for wind power density forecasting

Of the various renewable energy resources, wind power is widely recognized as one of the most promising. The management of wind farms and electricity systems can benefit greatly from the availability of estimates of the probability distribution of wind power generation. However, most research has focused on point forecasting of wind power. In this paper, we develop an approach to producing density forecasts for the wind power generated at individual wind farms. Our interest is in intraday data and prediction from 1 to 72 hours ahead. We model wind power in terms of wind speed and wind direction. In this framework, there are two key uncertainties. First, there is the inherent uncertainty in wind speed and direction, and we model this using a bivariate VARMA-GARCH (vector autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, with a Student t distribution, in the Cartesian space of wind speed and direction. Second, there is the stochastic nature of the relationship of wind power to wind speed (described by the power curve), and to wind direction. We model this using conditional kernel density (CKD) estimation, which enables a nonparametric modeling of the conditional density of wind power. Using Monte Carlo simulation of the VARMA-GARCH model and CKD estimation, density forecasts of wind speed and direction are converted to wind power density forecasts. Our work is novel in several respects: previous wind power studies have not modeled a stochastic power curve; to accommodate time evolution in the power curve, we incorporate a time decay factor within the CKD method; and the CKD method is conditional on a density, rather than a single value. The new approach is evaluated using datasets from four Greek wind farms

Calculating Launch Vehicle Flight Performance Reserve

This paper addresses different methods for determining the amount of extra propellant (flight performance reserve or FPR) that is necessary to reach orbit with a high probability of success. One approach involves assuming that the various influential parameters are independent and that the result behaves as a Gaussian. Alternatively, probabilistic models may be used to determine the vehicle and environmental models that will be available (estimated) for a launch day go/no go decision. High-fidelity closed-loop Monte Carlo simulation determines the amount of propellant used with each random combination of parameters that are still unknown at the time of launch. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, several methods were used to calculate the FPR. The final chosen solution involves determining distributions for the pertinent outputs and running a separate Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a best estimate of the required FPR. This result differs from the result obtained using the other methods sufficiently that the higher fidelity is warranted