Intermittent thinning of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age

This is the published version, also available here: http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/002214308784409035.Rapid thinning and velocity increase on major Greenland outlet glaciers during the last two decades may indicate that these glaciers became unstable as a consequence of the Jakobshavn effect (Hughes, 1986), with terminus retreat leading to increased discharge from the interior and consequent further thinning and retreat. To assess whether recent trends deviate from longer-term behavior, we measured glacier surface elevations and terminus positions for Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, using historical photographs acquired in 1944, 1953, 1959, 1964 and 1985. These results were combined with data from historical records, aerial photographs, ground surveys, airborne laser altimetry and field mapping of lateral moraines and trimlines, to reconstruct the history of changes since the Little Ice Age (LIA). We identified three periods of rapid thinning since the LIA: 1902–13, 1930–59 and 1999–present. During the first half of the 20th century, the calving front appears to have been grounded and it started to float during the late 1940s. The south and north tributaries exhibit different behavior. For example, the north tributary was thinning between 1959 and 1985 during a period when the calving front was stationary and the south tributary was in balance. The record of intermittent thinning, combined with changes in ice-marginal extent and position of the calving front, together with changes in velocity, imply that the behavior of the lower parts of this glacier represents a complex ice-dynamical response to local climate forcings and interactions with drainage from the interior

Surface roughness on the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne laser altimetry

This is the published version, also available here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900041.High resolution airborne laser altimetry is used to determine the small-scale surface relief in central Greenland and estimate the contribution from spatial noise to stratigraphic records. The standard deviation of the surface roughness is 1.6 cm water equivalent, corresponding to a standard deviation of annual layer thickness of 2.3 cm we. This estimate agrees with an independent assessment of the spatial variability (2.5 cm we) based on nine shallow ice cores. The agreement suggests that the statistical nature of the surface in central Greenland remains unchanged throughout the year. By conducting airborne altimetry around proposed drilling sites, the expected noise level in the core can be evaluated and sites selected where this level is lowest

ICESat measurements reveal complex pattern of elevation changes on Siple Coast ice streams, Antarctica

This is the published version, also available here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024289.We compare ICESat data (2003–2004) to airborne laser altimetry data (1997–98 and 1999–2000) to monitor surface changes over portions of Van der Veen (VdVIS), Whillans (WIS) and Kamb ice streams (KIS) in the Ross Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The spatial pattern of detected surface changes is generally consistent with earlier observations. However, important changes have occurred during the past decade. For example, areas on the VdVIS and WIS, where large thinning was detected by the airborne surveys, are now closer to being in balance. The upper trunk of KIS continues to build up with thickening rates reaching 0.4 m/year. Our results provide new evidence that the overall mass balance of the region is becoming more positive, but a significant spatial variability exists. They also demonstrate the potential of ICESat data for detecting spatial patterns of surface elevation change in Antarctica

Surface roughness over the northern half of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne laser altimetry

This is the published version, also available here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001067.Surface roughness, defined as the standard deviation of small-scale elevation fluctuations from the linear trend over 0.5 km, can be estimated from high-resolution airborne laser altimetry. Here we present results for the northern half of the Greenland Ice Sheet using laser data collected in May 1995. Roughness is smallest in the central region straddling the ice divide, increases in amplitude toward the coast, and appears to be correlated with slope of the ice surface. For most of the study region surface roughness is 8 cm or less (<2.5 cm water equivalent). In smaller regions associated with fast flow, larger values are found. Comparison of the size of small-scale topographic disturbances with the spatial noise estimated from five closely spaced ice cores drilled in northwest Greenland shows good agreement. Similar correspondence was found earlier using nine ice cores from the Summit region. These results indicate that the airborne laser altimeter provides an efficient platform for characterizing the statistical nature of the snow surface over large areas of the polar ice sheets

Post-depositional fracturing and subsidence of pumice flow deposits: Lascar Volcano, Chile

Unconsolidated pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1993 eruption of Lascar Volcano, Chile, have, with time, become increasingly dissected by a network of deeply penetrating fractures. The fracture network comprises orthogonal sets of decimeter-wide linear voids that form a pseudo-polygonal grid visible on the deposit surface. In this work, we combine shallow surface geophysical imaging tools with remote sensing observations and direct field measurements of the deposit to investigate these fractures and their underlying causal mechanisms. Based on ground penetrating radar images, the fractures are observed to have propagated to depths of up to 10 m. In addition, orbiting radar interferometry shows that deposit subsidence of up to 1 cm/year occurred between 1993 and 1996 with continued subsidence occurring at a slower rate thereafter. In situ measurements show that 1 m below the surface, the 1993 deposits remain 5°C to 15°C hotter, 18 years after emplacement, than adjacent deposits. Based on the observed subsidence as well as estimated cooling rates, the fractures are inferred to be the combined result of deaeration, thermal contraction, and sedimentary compaction in the months to years following deposition. Significant environmental factors, including regional earthquakes in 1995 and 2007, accelerated settling at punctuated moments in time. The spatially variable fracture pattern relates to surface slope and lithofacies variations as well as substrate lithology. Similar fractures have been reported in other ignimbrites but are generally exposed only in cross section and are often attributed to formation by external forces. Here we suggest that such interpretations should be invoked with caution, and deformation including post-emplacement subsidence and fracturing of loosely packed ash-rich deposits in the months to years postemplacement is a process inherent in the settling of pyroclastic material

Minimal Holocene retreat of large tidewater glaciers in Køge Bugt, southeast Greenland

Abstract Køge Bugt, in southeast Greenland, hosts three of the largest glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet; these have been major contributors to ice loss in the last two decades. Despite its importance, the Holocene history of this area has not been investigated. We present a 9100 year sediment core record of glaciological and oceanographic changes from analysis of foraminiferal assemblages, the abundance of ice-rafted debris, and sortable silt grain size data. Results show that ice-rafted debris accumulated constantly throughout the core; this demonstrates that glaciers in Køge Bugt remained in tidewater settings throughout the last 9100 years. This observation constrains maximum Holocene glacier retreat here to less than 6 km from present-day positions. Retreat was minimal despite oceanic and climatic conditions during the early-Holocene that were at least as warm as the present-day. The limited Holocene retreat of glaciers in Køge Bugt was controlled by the subglacial topography of the area; the steeply sloping bed allowed glaciers here to stabilise during retreat. These findings underscore the need to account for individual glacier geometry when predicting future behaviour. We anticipate that glaciers in Køge Bugt will remain in stable configurations in the near-future, despite the predicted continuation of atmospheric and oceanic warming

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Digit Ratio Predicts Sense of Direction in Women

The relative length of the second-to-fourth digits (2D:4D) has been linked with prenatal androgen in humans. The 2D:4D is sexually dimorphic, with lower values in males than females, and appears to correlate with diverse measures of behavior. However, the relationship between digit ratio and cognition, and spatial cognition in particular, has produced mixed results. In the present study, we hypothesized that spatial tasks separating cue conditions that either favored female or male strategies would examine this structure-function correlation with greater precision. Previous work suggests that males are better in the use of directional cues than females. In the present study, participants learned a target location in a virtual landscape environment, in conditions that contained either all directional (i.e., distant or compass bearing) cues, or all positional (i.e., local, small objects) cues. After a short delay, participants navigated back to the target location from a novel starting location. Males had higher accuracy in initial search direction than females in environments with all directional cues. Lower digit ratio was correlated with higher accuracy of initial search direction in females in environments with all directional cues. Mental rotation scores did not correlate with digit ratio in either males or females. These results demonstrate for the first time that a sex difference in the use of directional cues, i.e., the sense of direction, is associated with more male-like digit ratio.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF ECCS-1028319)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF Graduate Student Fellowship)Mary Elisabeth Rennie Endowment for Epilepsy Researc

Mass budget of the grounded ice in Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system

We used remote-sensing and in situ measurements of surface accumulation rate, ice surface velocity, thickness and elevation to evaluate the mass budgets of grounded ice-flow regimes that form the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system. Three distinct drainage regimes are considered: the western and eastern margins of the ice shelf, and the southern grounding line at the major outlet glacier confluence, which can be identified with drainage zones 9, 11 and 10 respectively of Giovinetto and Zwally (2000). Our findings show the entire grounded portion of the basin is approximately in balance, with a mass budget of -4.2_9.8 Gt a-1. Drainages 9, 10 and 11 are within balance to the level of our measurement uncertainty, with mass budgets of -2.5_2.8 Gt a-1, -2.6_7.8 Gt a-1 and 0.9_2.3 Gt a-1, respectively. The region upstream of the Australian Lambert Glacier basin (LGB) traverse has a net mass budget of 4.4_6.3 Gt a-1, while the downstream region has -8.9_9.9 Gt a-1. These results indicate that glacier drainages 9, 10 and 11, upstream and downstream of the Australian LGB traverse, are in balance to within our measurement error

FUSION OF LASER ALTIMETRY DATA WITH DEMS DERIVED FROM STEREO IMAGING SYSTEMS

During the last two decades surface elevation data have been gathered over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from a variety of different sensors including spaceborne and airborne laser altimetry, such as NASA’s Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS), as well as from stereo satellite imaging systems, most notably from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Worldview. The spatio-temporal resolution, the accuracy, and the spatial coverage of all these data differ widely. For example, laser altimetry systems are much more accurate than DEMs derived by correlation from imaging systems. On the other hand, DEMs usually have a superior spatial resolution and extended spatial coverage. We present in this paper an overview of the SERAC (Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection) system, designed to cope with the data complexity and the computation of elevation change histories. SERAC simultaneously determines the ice sheet surface shape and the time-series of elevation changes for surface patches whose size depends on the ruggedness of the surface and the point distribution of the sensors involved. By incorporating different sensors, SERAC is a true fusion system that generates the best plausible result (time series of elevation changes) a result that is better than the sum of its individual parts. We follow this up with an example of the Helmheim gacier, involving ICESat, ATM and LVIS laser altimetry data, together with ASTER DEMs