Direct Measurement of the X-ray Time-Delay Transfer Function in Active Galactic Nuclei

The origin of the observed time lags, in nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN), between hard and soft X-ray photons is investigated using new XMM-Newton data for the narrow-line Seyfert I galaxy Ark 564 and existing data for 1H0707-495 and NGC 4051. These AGN have highly variable X-ray light curves that contain frequent, high peaks of emission. The averaged light curve of the peaks is directly measured from the time series, and it is shown that (i) peaks occur at the same time, within the measurement uncertainties, at all X-ray energies, and (ii) there exists a substantial tail of excess emission at hard X-ray energies, which is delayed with respect to the time of the main peak, and is particularly prominent in Ark 564. Observation (i) rules out that the observed lags are caused by Comptonization time delays and disfavors a simple model of propagating fluctuations on the accretion disk. Observation (ii) is consistent with time lags caused by Compton-scattering reverberation from material a few thousand light-seconds from the primary X-ray source. The power spectral density and the frequency-dependent phase lags of the peak light curves are consistent with those of the full time series. There is evidence for non-stationarity in the Ark 564 time series in both the Fourier and peaks analyses. A sharp `negative' lag (variations at hard photon energies lead soft photon energies) observed in Ark 564 appears to be generated by the shape of the hard-band transfer function and does not arise from soft-band reflection of X-rays. These results reinforce the evidence for the existence of X-ray reverberation in type I AGN, which requires that these AGN are significantly affected by scattering from circumnuclear material a few tens or hundreds of gravitational radii in extent.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Acute lung injury in paediatric intensive care: course and outcome

Introduction: Acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) carry a high morbidity and mortality (10-90%). ALI is characterised by non-cardiogenic pulmonary oedema and refractory hypoxaemia of multifactorial aetiology [1]. There is limited data about outcome particularly in children. Methods This retrospective cohort study of 85 randomly selected patients with respiratory failure recruited from a prospectively collected database represents 7.1% of 1187 admissions. They include those treated with High Frequency Oscillation Ventilation (HFOV). The patients were admitted between 1 November 1998 and 31 October 2000. Results: Of the 85, 49 developed acute lung injury and 47 had ARDS. There were 26 males and 23 females with a median age and weight of 7.7 months (range 1 day-12.8 years) and 8 kg (range 0.8-40 kg). There were 7 deaths giving a crude mortality of 14.3%, all of which fulfilled the Consensus I [1] criteria for ARDS. Pulmonary occlusion pressures were not routinely measured. The A-a gradient and PaO2/FiO2 ratio (median + [95% CI]) were 37.46 [31.82-43.1] kPa and 19.12 [15.26-22.98] kPa respectively. The non-survivors had a significantly lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio (13 [6.07-19.93] kPa) compared to survivors (23.85 [19.57-28.13] kPa) (P = 0.03) and had a higher A-a gradient (51.05 [35.68-66.42] kPa) compared to survivors (36.07 [30.2-41.94]) kPa though not significant (P = 0.06). Twenty-nine patients (59.2%) were oscillated (Sensormedics 3100A) including all 7 non-survivors. There was no difference in ventilation requirements for CMV prior to oscillation. Seventeen of the 49 (34.7%) were treated with Nitric Oxide including 5 out of 7 non-survivors (71.4%). The median (95% CI) number of failed organs was 3 (1.96-4.04) for non-survivors compared to 1 (0.62-1.62) for survivors (P = 0.03). There were 27 patients with isolated respiratory failure all of whom survived. Six (85.7%) of the non-survivors also required cardiovascular support.Conclusion: A crude mortality of 14.3% compares favourably to published data. The A-a gradient and PaO2/FiO2 ratio may be of help in morbidity scoring in paediatric ARDS. Use of Nitric Oxide and HFOV is associated with increased mortality, which probably relates to the severity of disease. Multiple organ failure particularly respiratory and cardiac disease is associated with increased mortality. ARDS with isolated respiratory failure carries a good prognosis in children

Instrumental Properties of Social Testbeds

The evaluation of an ability or skill happens in some kind of testbed, and so does with social intelligence. Of course, not all testbeds are suitable for this matter. But, how can we be sure of their appropriateness? In this paper we identify the components that should be considered in order to measure social intelligence, and provide some instrumental properties in order to assess the suitability of a testbed.Insa Cabrera, J.; Hernández Orallo, J. (2015). Instrumental Properties of Social Testbeds. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence. 9205:101-110. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-21365-1_11S1011109205Horling, B., Lesser, V.: A Survey of Multi-Agent Organizational Paradigms. The Knowledge Engineering Review 19, 281–316 (2004)Simao, J., Demazeau, Y.: On Social Reasoning in Multi-Agent Systems. Inteligencia Artificial 5(13), 68–84 (2001)Roth, A.E.: The Shapley Value: Essays in Honor of Lloyd S. Shapley. Cambridge University Press (1988)Insa-Cabrera, J., Hernández-Orallo, J.: Definition and properties to assess multi-agent environments as social intelligence tests. Technical report, CoRR (2014)Legg, S., Hutter, M.: Universal Intelligence: A Definition of Machine Intelligence. Minds and Machines 17(4), 391–444 (2007)Hernández-Orallo, J., Dowe, D.L.: Measuring universal intelligence: Towards an anytime intelligence test. Artificial Intelligence 174(18), 1508–1539 (2010)Hernández-Orallo, J.: A (hopefully) unbiased universal environment class for measuring intelligence of biological and artificial systems. In: 3rd Conference on Artificial General Intelligence, pp. 182–183 (2010)Hernández-Orallo, J., Dowe, D.L., Hernández-Lloreda, M.V.: Universal psychometrics: Measuring cognitive abilities in the machine kingdom. Cognitive Systems Research 27, 50–74 (2014

Geoarchaeological Modeling of Late Paleoindian Site Location in the Northwestern Great Lakes Region

Full-time occupation of recently deglaciated landscapes in the northwestern Great Lakes by late Paleoindian groups marks a key milestone in the colonization of the region, yet settlement-subsistence systems of these colonizing populations remains poorly understood. Here we apply geoarchaeological modeling and early Holocene environmental reconstruction to analyze environmental settings of known late Paleoindian sites in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Our results reveal significant settlement patterning associated with this early Holocene record, highlighting the spatial correlation between site locations and high ground adjacent to hilly terrain and inland lakes – prime locations for monitoring the movement of large game. The analysis highlights a core area with a high likelihood for undiscovered late Paleoindian sites in the northwest corner of Marquette County and suggests the possibility of a north-south travel corridor into the region from upper Wisconsin along the Michigamme River

Siting prisons, sighting communities: geographies of objection in a planning process

This paper reviews the planning process for a Scottish prison located near a former mining village. Analysing the letters of objection submitted by residents offers an opportunity to explore local views about prison and community and to relate these to the unique social and spatial history of the area. The planning process itself structured how residents were able to express themselves and defined what counted as a relevant objection. After deconstructing this process, the paper then restores and uses as a framework for analysis three geographies of objection stripped from local responses to the development proposal: the emotional, temporal, and spatial. Emotional expressions of objection added intensity and gave meaning to claims about the historical decline of the region and also conveyed a deep sense of the proposed building site as a lived space. Particular grounds of opposition—over fear of strangers, the fragility of a local orchid, and the pollution from mining—provide an opportunity to explore the complex nature of place meaning and community identity, ultimately leading to a conclusion that the meaning of place is always in flux. The paper argues that Simmel’s classic concept of the stranger, as the outsider who comes to stay, offers a useful analytic in understanding how the quality of proximal remoteness that prisons and other unwanted developments constitute participates in a constantly evolving sense of the local

Employers' and Employees' Understanding of Occupational Health and Safety Risks in Small Businesses: A Case Study

Many small businesses have hazardous work environments and exposures to significant occupational health and safety risks. Differences in understanding of risks by employers and employees are one of the factors leading to the hazardous work environment and risk exposures in small businesses. Employees generally describe “the tools of the trade” as the sources of risks of accidents and injuries, whereas employers generally identify “bad employees” or “bad luck” as the cause of accidents. It seems that employer and employees having the same or a shared understanding of occupational health and safety problems, their causal relations and the course of action is essential to remedy the work environment problems in the workplace. This paper describes a study that explores owner/managers’ and employees’ understandings of occupational health and safety risks in small business workplaces within the framework of the Local Theory of Work Environment. A case study of an independently operated restaurant and café in New Zealand employing 6­19 employees was undertaken.. Data was collected using participant­as­observer ethnographic observation of the workplace followed by semi structured interviews of the owner, a manager and more than fifty per cent of employees employed in the business. Preliminary findings based on interview data are reported in this paper. The results suggest that the owner/manager and employees mainly consider physical safety problems experienced by employees or food safety problems affecting the customers as the key work environment problems. The owner/manager and employees generally link common sense and breach of norms with the causal relation behind these problems. Social exchange and external certification, among others, are found to be prominent reasons for bringing to attention the perceived problems in the wider work environment context. Implicit individual element of action and explicit organizational element of action are recognised as the two courses of action remedying the occupational health and safety problems. Further studies can be directed at finding how a shared understanding of the OHS risks occurs and what influences this process

Spatial Analysis of Temporal Changes in the Pandemic of Severe Cassava Mosaic Disease in Northwestern Tanzania

Published online: 8 Sept 2017To improve understanding of the dynamics of the cassava mosaic disease (CMD) pandemic front, geospatial approaches were applied to the analysis of 3 years’ data obtained from a 2-by-2° (approximately 222-by-222 km) area of northwestern Tanzania. In total, 80 farmers’ fields were assessed in each of 2009, 2010, and 2011, with 20 evenly distributed fields per 1-by-1° quadrant. CMD-associated variables (CMD incidence, CMD severity, vector-borne CMD infection, and vector abundance) increased in magnitude from 2009 to 2010 but showed little change from 2010 to 2011. Increases occurred primarily in the two westernmost quadrants of the study area. A pandemic “front” was defined by determining the values of CMD incidence and whitefly abundance where predicted disease gradients were greatest. The pandemic-associated virus (East African cassava mosaic virus-Uganda) and vector genotype (Bemisia tabaci sub-Saharan Africa 1–subgroup 1) were both present within the area bounded by the CMD incidence front but both also occurred ahead of the front. The average speed and direction of movement of the CMD incidence front (22.9 km/year; southeast) and whitefly abundance front (46.6 km/year; southeast) were calculated, and production losses due to CMD were estimated to range from US$4.3 million to 12.2 million

Self-Modification of Policy and Utility Function in Rational Agents

Any agent that is part of the environment it interacts with and has versatile actuators (such as arms and fingers), will in principle have the ability to self-modify -- for example by changing its own source code. As we continue to create more and more intelligent agents, chances increase that they will learn about this ability. The question is: will they want to use it? For example, highly intelligent systems may find ways to change their goals to something more easily achievable, thereby `escaping' the control of their designers. In an important paper, Omohundro (2008) argued that goal preservation is a fundamental drive of any intelligent system, since a goal is more likely to be achieved if future versions of the agent strive towards the same goal. In this paper, we formalise this argument in general reinforcement learning, and explore situations where it fails. Our conclusion is that the self-modification possibility is harmless if and only if the value function of the agent anticipates the consequences of self-modifications and use the current utility function when evaluating the future.Comment: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 201

Visual analytics for collaborative human-machine confidence in human-centric active learning tasks

Active machine learning is a human-centric paradigm that leverages a small labelled dataset to build an initial weak classifier, that can then be improved over time through human-machine collaboration. As new unlabelled samples are observed, the machine can either provide a prediction, or query a human ‘oracle’ when the machine is not confident in its prediction. Of course, just as the machine may lack confidence, the same can also be true of a human ‘oracle’: humans are not all-knowing, untiring oracles. A human’s ability to provide an accurate and confident response will often vary between queries, according to the duration of the current interaction, their level of engagement with the system, and the difficulty of the labelling task. This poses an important question of how uncertainty can be expressed and accounted for in a human-machine collaboration. In short, how can we facilitate a mutually-transparent collaboration between two uncertain actors - a person and a machine - that leads to an improved outcome?In this work, we demonstrate the benefit of human-machine collaboration within the process of active learning, where limited data samples are available or where labelling costs are high. To achieve this, we developed a visual analytics tool for active learning that promotes transparency, inspection, understanding and trust, of the learning process through human-machine collaboration. Fundamental to the notion of confidence, both parties can report their level of confidence during active learning tasks using the tool, such that this can be used to inform learning. Human confidence of labels can be accounted for by the machine, the machine can query for samples based on confidence measures, and the machine can report confidence of current predictions to the human, to further the trust and transparency between the collaborative parties. In particular, we find that this can improve the robustness of the classifier when incorrect sample labels are provided, due to unconfidence or fatigue. Reported confidences can also better inform human-machine sample selection in collaborative sampling. Our experimentation compares the impact of different selection strategies for acquiring samples: machine-driven, human-driven, and collaborative selection. We demonstrate how a collaborative approach can improve trust in the model robustness, achieving high accuracy and low user correction, with only limited data sample selections

Circular Polarization Induced by Scintillation in a Magnetized Medium

A new theory is presented for the development of circular polarization as radio waves propagate through the turbulent, birefringent interstellar medium. The fourth order moments of the wavefield are calculated and it is shown that unpolarized incident radiation develops a nonzero variance in circular polarization. A magnetized turbulent medium causes the Stokes parameters to scintillate in a non-identical manner. A specific model for this effect is developed for the case of density fluctuations in a uniform magnetic field.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure, Phys. Rev. E, accepte