Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Cosmological tachyon condensation

We consider the prospects for dark matter/energy unification in k-essence type theories. General mappings are established between the k-essence scalar field, the hydrodynamic and braneworld descriptions. We develop an extension of the general relativistic dust model that incorporates the effects of both pressure and the associated acoustic horizon. Applying this to a tachyon model, we show that this inhomogeneous "variable Chaplygin gas" does evolve into a mixed system containing cold dark matter like gravitational condensate in significant quantities. Our methods can be applied to any dark energy model as well as to mixtures of dark energy and traditional dark matter.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures, title changed, typos corrected, accepted in Phys. Rev.

Economic differences between cumulative and episodic reduction of sediment from cropland

This study compares measures for reducing cumulative sediment loads from cropland with measures for reducing sediment loads from extreme storms. The issue is whether the optimal means of controlling cumulative loads are very different from the optimal controls for storm event loads. Differences are described in terms of costs and management practices. The analysis entailed developing a storm-event simulation model analogous to the SEDEC sedimentation economics model. The analogue model was used to identify the respective optimal cropland management strategies for various extreme storm conditions. These strategies were then analyzed using the annual average SEDEC, and the optimal strategies from SEDEC were analyzed for their storm-event properties. The comparisons permit conclusions concerning the relative effectiveness of management strategies for achieving cumulative sediment goals versus storm-event load goals. Data for a 223 study site in the Highland-Silver Lake Watershed in Southwestern Illinois were analyzed using this approach. The study produced four main conclusions. First, control costs for episodic sediment loads were consistently higher than the costs for proportionate reductions in annual average loads. Furthermore, strategies for reducing cumulative loads generally achieve less than proportionate reductions in cumulative loads. Second, the highest control costs were generally for the most extreme storms. Third, contour cultivation is a key element of efficient management strategies for row crops. Finally, where a permanent grass crop is grown adjacent to the stream, there is generally little more to be gained by changing upslope management practices. This suggests that grass strips along streams would greatly reduce the need to modify farming practices elsewhere in order to limit sedimentation.U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyOpe

In vitro activity of BAY 12-8039, a novel 8-methoxyquinolone, compared to activities of six fluoroquinolones against Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Moraxella catarrhalis

The in vitro activity of a novel 8-methoxyquinolone, BAY 12-8039, against recent clinical isolates of Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 404), Haemophilus influenzae (n = 330), and Moraxella catarrhalis (n = 250) was evaluated. Activity was compared to those of six other fluoroquinolones: ciprofloxacin, clinafloxacin, levofloxacin, ofloxacin, sparfloxacin and trovafloxacin. BAY 12-8039 and clinafloxacin had the highest levels of activity against S. pneumoniae, both with a MIC at which 90% of the isolates were inhibited (MIC90) of 0.06 microg/ml. Trovafloxacin and sparfloxacin were the next most active agents versus S. pneumoniae (MIC90s = 0.12 microg/ml). No differences in activity against penicillin-susceptible, -intermediate, or -resistant strains of S. pneumoniae were noted for any of the fluoroquinolones tested. MIC90s for the seven fluoroquinolones ranged from 0.008 to 0.06 microg/ml versus H. influenzae and from 0.008 to 0.12 microg/ml for M. catarrhalis. The MICs for two strains of S. pneumoniae and one strain of H. influenzae were noted to be higher than those for the general population of organisms for all of the fluoroquinolones tested. Finally, the activity of BAY 12-8039 versus S. pneumoniae was found to be diminished when MIC determinations were performed with incubation of agar dilution plates or broth microdilution trays in 5 to 7% CO2 versus ambient air

Efficient Algorithm for Nonpoint Source Pollution Control Problems

A dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for a class of nonpoint source pollution control problems. The inherently combinatorial nature of these problems--stemming from the discrete nature of the decision variables, which are production and conservation practices--gives them a special knapsack structure with multiple right hand sides and additional multiple choice constraints. This paper focuses on the computer implementation of this algorithm and its numerical testing and behavior compared with standard integer programming codes. The results show the robustness and relative efficiency of the approach. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that dynamic programming can be used to generate sensitivity analysis information for multiple choice knapsack problems

The Value of Singularities

We point out that spacetime singularities play a useful role in gravitational theories by eliminating unphysical solutions. In particular, we argue that any modification of general relativity which is completely nonsingular cannot have a stable ground state. This argument applies both to classical extensions of general relativity, and to candidate quantum theories of gravity.Comment: 5 pages, no figures; a few clarifying comments adde

Preserved retinotopic brain connectivity in macular degeneration

PURPOSE: The eye disease macular degeneration (MD) is a leading cause of blindness worldwide. There is no cure for MD, but several promising treatments aimed at restoring vision at the level of the retina are currently under investigation. These treatments assume that the patient's brain can still process appropriately the retinal input once it is restored, but whether this assumption is correct has yet to be determined. METHODS: We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and connective field modelling to determine whether the functional connectivity between the input-deprived portions of primary visual cortex (V1) and early extrastriate areas (V2/3) is still retinotopically organised. Specifically, in both patients with juvenile macular degeneration and age-matched controls with simulated retinal lesions, we assessed the extent to which the V1-referred connective fields of extrastriate voxels, as estimated on the basis of spontaneous fMRI signal fluctuations, adhered to retinotopic organisation. RESULTS: We found that functional connectivity between the input-deprived portions of visual areas V1 and extrastriate cortex is still largely retinotopically organised in MD, although on average less so than in controls. Patients with stable fixation exhibited normal retinotopic connectivity, however, suggesting that for the patients with unstable fixation, eye-movements resulted in spurious, homogeneous signal modulations across the entire input-deprived cortex, which would have hampered our ability to assess their spatial structure of connectivity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the prolonged loss of visual input due to MD, the cortico-cortical connections of input-deprived visual cortex remain largely intact. This suggests that the restoration of sight in macular degeneration can rely on a largely unchanged retinotopic representation in early visual cortex following loss of central retinal function

NASA ASCENDS Mission to Measure Atmospheric CO2 from Space: A Status Report

No abstract availabl

Measurement of complex fragments and clues to the entropy production from 42-137-MeV/nucleon Ar + Au

Intermediate-rapidity fragments with A=1-14 emitted from 42-137-MeV/nucleon Ar + Au have been measured. Evidence is presented that these fragments arise from a common moving source. Entropy values are extracted from the mass distributions by use of quantum statistical and Hauser-Feshbach theories. The extracted entropy values of S/A≈2-2.4 are much smaller than the values expected from measured deuteron-to-proton ratios, but are still considerably higher than theoretically predicted values

Structure Function of Polymer Nematic Liquid Crystals: A Monte Carlo Simulation

We present a Monte Carlo simulation of a polymer nematic for varying volume fractions, concentrating on the structure function of the sample. We achieve nematic ordering with stiff polymers made of spherical monomers that would otherwise not form a nematic state. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with theoretical and experimental predictions, most notably the bowtie pattern in the static structure function.Comment: 10 pages, plain TeX, macros included, 3 figures available from archive. Published versio