A reliable liquid helium detector

Detector and indicator system, utilizing commercial perforated germanium cryogenic thermometer as level sensor containing adjustable level discriminator with indicators, operates reliably over pressure range from 50 to 900 mm Hg without electronic adjustments

N-SAP and G-SAP neutron and gamma ray albedo model scatter shield analysis program

Computer program calculates neutron or gamma ray first order scattering from a plane or cylindrical surface to a detector point. The SAP Codes, G-SAP and N-SAP, constitute a multiple scatter albedo model shield analysis

Neutrino clustering and the Z-burst model

The possibility that the observed Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays are generated by high energy neutrinos creating "Z-bursts" in resonant interactions with the background neutrinos has been proposed, but there are difficulties in generating enough events with reasonable incident neutrino fluxes. We point out that this difficulty is overcome if the background neutrinos have coalesced into "neutrino clouds" --- a possibility previously suggested by some of us in another context. The limitations that this mechanism for the generation of UHECRs places on the high energy neutrino flux, on the masses of the background neutrinos and the characteristics of the neutrino clouds are spelled out.Comment: 13 pages and 3 figures. Contributed to the XX International Symposium on Lepton and Photon Interactions at High Energies, Rome, July 2001, and to the International Europhysics Conference on High Energy Physics, Budapest, July 2001. Preprint numbers added, misprints correcte

Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10-50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

No Lambda oscillations

We examine a recently published calculation which predicts an oscillatory behaviour for the decay of Lambdas produced together with a neutral kaon, and proposes a new expression for the wavelength of kaon strangeness oscillations. We modify the calculation by imposing the requirement that the interference of the K_L and K_S components of the kaon wave function occurs at a specific space-time point. With this requirement, the unusual results predicted vanish, and the conventional results are recovered.Comment: 9 pages Latex, no figures. Added Latex section omitted befor

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

Epoch Dependent Dark Energy

We present a model in which the equation of state parameter w approaches -1 near a particular value of z, and has significant negative values in a restricted range of z. For example, one can have w ~ -1 near z = 1, and w > -0.2 from z = 0 to z = 0.3, and for z > 9. The ingredients of the model are neutral fermions (which may be neutrinos, neutralinos, etc) which are very weakly coupled to a light scalar field. This model emphasises the importance of the proposed studies of the properties of dark energy into the region z > 1.Comment: 7pp., 2 figs. Invited talk at the 5th Int'l. Wkshp. on the Dark Side of the Universe, 1-5 June 2009 Melbourne, DSU09; to appear in the proceeding