Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Differentiating normal and problem gambling: a grounded theory approach.

A previous study (Ricketts &amp; Macaskill, 2003) delineated a theory of problem gambling based on the experiences of treatment seeking male gamblers and allowed predictions to be made regarding the processes that differentiate between normal and problem gamblers. These predictions are the focus of the present study, which also utilised a grounded theory approach, but with a sample of male high frequency normal gamblers. The findings suggest that there are common aspects of gambling associated with arousal and a sense of achievement. The use of gambling to manage negative emotional states differentiated normal and problem gambling. Perceived self-efficacy , emotion management skills and perceived likelihood of winning money back were intervening variables differentiating problem and normal gamblers.</p

REDUCE-IT USA: Results From the 3146 Patients Randomized in the United States.

BackgroundSome trials have found that patients from the United States derive less benefit than patients enrolled outside the United States. This prespecified REDUCE-IT (Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl - Intervention Trial) subgroup analysis was conducted to determine the degree of benefit of icosapent ethyl in the United States.MethodsREDUCE-IT randomized 8179 statin-treated patients with qualifying triglycerides ≥135 and &lt;500 mg/dL and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol &gt;40 and ≤100 mg/dL and a history of atherosclerosis or diabetes mellitus to icosapent ethyl 4 g/d or placebo. The primary composite end point was cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina. The key secondary composite end point was cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. A hierarchy was prespecified for examination of individual and composite end points.ResultsA total of 3146 US patients (38.5% of the trial) were randomized and followed for a median of 4.9 years; 32.3% were women and 9.7% were Hispanic. The primary composite end point occurred in 24.7% of placebo-treated patients versus 18.2% of icosapent ethyl-treated patients (hazard ratio [HR], 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.80]; P=0.000001); the key secondary composite end point occurred in 16.6% versus 12.1% (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.57-0.83]; P=0.00008). All prespecified hierarchical end points were meaningfully and significantly reduced, including cardiovascular death (6.7% to 4.7%; HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.49-0.90]; P=0.007), myocardial infarction (8.8% to 6.7%; HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.56-0.93]; P=0.01), stroke (4.1% to 2.6%; HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.43-0.93]; P=0.02), and all-cause mortality (9.8% to 7.2%; HR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.55-0.90]; P=0.004); for all-cause mortality in the US versus non-US patients, Pinteraction=0.02. Safety and tolerability findings were consistent with the full study cohort.ConclusionsWhereas the non-US subgroup showed significant reductions in the primary and key secondary end points, the US subgroup demonstrated particularly robust risk reductions across a variety of individual and composite end points, including all-cause mortality.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01492361

Progressive regression of left ventricular hypertrophy two years after bariatric surgery.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a systemic disorder associated with an increase in left ventricular mass and premature death and disability from cardiovascular disease. Although bariatric surgery reverses many of the hormonal and hemodynamic derangements, the long-term collective effects on body composition and left ventricular mass have not been considered before. We hypothesized that the decrease in fat mass and lean mass after weight loss surgery is associated with a decrease in left ventricular mass. METHODS: Fifteen severely obese women (mean body mass index [BMI]: 46.7+/-1.7 kg/m(2)) with medically controlled hypertension underwent bariatric surgery. Left ventricular mass and plasma markers of systemic metabolism, together with body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, body composition (fat mass and lean mass), and resting energy expenditure were measured at 0, 3, 9, 12, and 24 months. RESULTS: Left ventricular mass continued to decrease linearly over the entire period of observation, while rates of weight loss, loss of lean mass, loss of fat mass, and resting energy expenditure all plateaued at 9 [corrected] months (P \u3c.001 for all). Parameters of systemic metabolism normalized by 9 months, and showed no further change at 24 months after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Even though parameters of obesity, including BMI and body composition, plateau, the benefits of bariatric surgery on systemic metabolism and left ventricular mass are sustained. We propose that the progressive decrease of left ventricular mass after weight loss surgery is regulated by neurohumoral factors, and may contribute to improved long-term survival

Comparison of the bifurcation scenarios predicted by the single-mode and multimode semiconductor laser rate equations

We present a detailed comparison of the bifurcation scenarios predicted by single-mode and multimode semiconductor laser rate equation models under large amplitude injection current modulation. The influence of the gain model on the predicted dynamics is investigated. Calculations of the dependence of the time averaged longitudinal mode intensities on modulation frequency are compared with experiments performed on an AlxGa1-xAs Fabry-Pérot semiconductor laser.K. A. Corbett and M. W. Hamilto

Inflammation, genetic background and longevity

Ageing is an inexorable intrinsic process that affects all cells, tissues, organs and individuals. Due to a diminished homeostasis and increased organism frailty, ageing causes a reduction of the response to environmental stimuli and, in general, is associated to an increased predisposition to illness and death. Actually, it is characterized by a state of reduced ability to maintain health and general homeodynamics of the organism.Alarge part of the ageing phenotype is explained by an imbalance between inflammatory and anti-inflammatory networks, which results in the low grade chronic pro-inflammatory status of ageing, ‘‘inflamm-ageing’’. It is strictly linked to immunosenescence, and on the whole they are the major contributory factors to the increased frequency of morbidity and mortality among elderly. Inflammageing is compatible with longevity; even if centenarians have an increased level of inflammatory mediators in comparison to old subjects and they are very frail, they also have high level of anti-inflammatory cytokines together with protective genotypes. Actually, data on case control studies performed in Italian centenarians suggest that a pro-inflammatory genotype is unfavourable to reach extreme longevity in good health and likely favours the onset of age-related diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and Alzheimer’s disease, the leading causes of mortality and disability in the elderly. However, many associations between gene variants and longevity have been found only in Italian population. This should not be unexpected, since ageing and longevity are complex traits resulting not only and not exclusively from genetics, but rather from the interactions between genetics, environment and chance

Prevalence, predictors and prognostic implications of PR interval prolongation in patients with heart failure

Aims: To determine the prevalence, incidence, predictors and prognostic implications of PR interval prolongation in patients referred with suspected heart failure. Methods and Results: Consecutive patients referred with suspected heart failure were prospectively enrolled. After excluding patients with implantable cardiac devices and atrial fibrillation, 1420 patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HeFREF) [age: median 71 (interquartile range IQR: 63-78) years; men: 71%; NT-ProBNP: 1319 (583-3378) ng/L], 1094 with heart failure and normal ejection fraction (HeFNEF) [age: 76 (70-82) years; men: 47%; NT-ProBNP: 547 (321-1171) ng/L], and 1150 without heart failure [age: 68 (60-75) years; men: 51%; NT-ProBNP: 86 (46-140) ng/L] were included. The prevalence of first degree heart block [heart-rate corrected PR interval (PRc) >200 ms] was higher in patients with heart failure (21% HeFREF, 20% HeFNEF, 9% without heart failure). In patients with HeFREF or HeFNEF, longer baseline PRc was associated with greater age, male sex, and longer QRS duration and, in those with HeFREF, treatment with amiodarone or digoxin. Patients with heart failure in the longest PRc quartile had worse survival compared to shorter PRc quartiles but PRc was not independently associated with survival in multivariable analysis. For patients without heart failure, shorter baseline PRc was independently associated with worse survival. Conclusion: PRc prolongation is common in patients with HeFREF or HeFNEF and associated with worse survival, although not an independent predictor of outcome. The results of clinical trials investigating the therapeutic potential of shortening the PR interval by pacing are awaited

Pursuing the Longevity Dividend

The aging of humanity is about to experience a radical change as the demographic transformation to an older world is approaching its final stage. In recent decades, scientists have learned enough about the biological aging processes that many believe it will become possible to slow aging in humans. We contend that the social, economic, and health benefits that would result from such advances may be thought of as “longevity dividends,” and that they should be aggressively pursued as the new approach to health promotion and disease prevention in the 21st century. The time has arrived for governments and national and international healthcare organizations to make research into healthy aging a major research priority.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75679/1/annals.1396.050.pd