Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer

Interactions between thresholds and spatial discretizations of snow: insights from estimates of wolverine denning habitat in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Thresholds can be used to interpret environmental data in a way that is easily communicated and useful for decision-making purposes. However, thresholds are often developed for specific data products and time periods, changing findings when the same threshold is applied to datasets or periods with different characteristics. Here, we test the impact of different spatial discretizations of snow on annual estimates of wolverine denning opportunities in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, defined using a snow water equivalent (SWE) threshold (0.20 m) and threshold date (15 May) from previous habitat assessments. Annual potential wolverine denning area (PWDA) was thresholded from a 36-year (1985–2020) snow reanalysis model with three different spatial discretizations: (1) 480 m grid cells (D480), (2) 90 m grid cells (D90), and (3) 480 m grid cells with implicit representations of subgrid snow spatial heterogeneity (S480). Relative to the D480 and S480 discretizations, D90 resolved shallower snow deposits on slopes between 3050 and 3350 m elevation, decreasing PWDA by 10 %, on average. In years with warmer and/or drier winters, S480 discretizations with subgrid representations of snow heterogeneity increased PWDA, even within grid cells where mean 15 May SWE was less than the SWE threshold. These simulations increased PWDA by upwards of 30 % in low-snow years, as compared to the D480 and D90 simulations without subgrid snow heterogeneity. Despite PWDA sensitivity to different snow spatial discretizations, PWDA was controlled more by annual variations in winter precipitation and temperature. However, small changes to the SWE threshold (±0.07 m) and threshold date (±2 weeks) also affected PWDA by as much as 82 %. Across these threshold ranges, PWDA was approximately 18 % more sensitive to the SWE threshold than the threshold date. However, the sensitivity to the threshold date was larger in years with late spring snowfall, when PWDA depended on whether modeled SWE was thresholded before, during, or after spring snow accumulation. Our results demonstrate that snow thresholds are useful but may not always provide a complete picture of the annual variability in snow-adapted wildlife denning opportunities. Studies thresholding spatiotemporal datasets could be improved by including (1) information about the fidelity of thresholds across multiple spatial discretizations and (2) uncertainties related to ranges of realistic thresholds.</p

Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage

Climate change and human activities increasingly threaten lakes that store 87% of Earth's liquid surface fresh water. Yet, recent trends and drivers of lake volume change remain largely unknown globally. Here, we analyze the 1972 largest global lakes using three decades of satellite observations, climate data, and hydrologic models, finding statistically significant storage declines for 53% of these water bodies over the period 1992-2020. The net volume loss in natural lakes is largely attributable to climate warming, increasing evaporative demand, and human water consumption, whereas sedimentation dominates storage losses in reservoirs. We estimate that roughly one-quarter of the world's population resides in a basin of a drying lake, underscoring the necessity of incorporating climate change and sedimentation impacts into sustainable water resources management

Effects of Snow Water Storage on Hydrologic Partitioning Across the Mountainous, Western United States

In the montane western United States, where the majority of downstream water resources are derived from snowmelt, a warming climate threatens the timing and amount of future water availability. It is expected that the fraction of precipitation falling as snow will continue decreasing and the timing of snowmelt will continue shifting earlier in the year with unknown impacts on partitioning between evapotranspiration and streamflow. To assess this, we employ a Snow Storage Index (SSI) to represent the annual temporal phase difference between daily precipitation and daily modeled surface water inputs (SWI, the sum of rainfall and snowmelt), weighted by the respective amounts. We coupled the SSI metric with a Budyko-based framework to determine the effect of snow water storage on relative hydrologic partitioning across snow-influenced watersheds in the western U.S. Greater snow water storage was positively correlated with greater hydrologic partitioning to streamflow, particularly in the North Cascades/Cascades (r2: 0.62), Blue Mountains (r2: 0.56), Canadian Rockies (r2: 0.55), Idaho Batholith, (r2: 0.48), and Columbia Mountains/Northern Rockies (r2: 0.45). The weekly SWI:P ratio was an equally strong predictor for hydrologic partitioning, particularly in mid-spring (e.g., March/April) in the same mountainous areas (r2: 0.62&ndash;0.74, across the same eco-regions). The retention of snow water storage and subsequent release of stored water in summer months resulted in increased hydrologic partitioning to streamflow. If SSI decreases with future warming, the volume of water partitioned streamflow will decrease non-uniformly across the western U.S. with substantial implications for ecosystems and agricultural, industrial, and domestic water supplies. &nbsp;</p

DNA Repair Biomarker for Lung Cancer Risk and its Correlation With Airway Cells Gene Expression.

Background: Improving lung cancer risk assessment is required because current early-detection screening criteria miss most cases. We therefore examined the utility for lung cancer risk assessment of a DNA Repair score obtained from OGG1, MPG, and APE1 blood tests. In addition, we examined the relationship between the level of DNA repair and global gene expression. Methods: We conducted a blinded case-control study with 150 non-small cell lung cancer case patients and 143 control individuals. DNA Repair activity was measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and the transcriptome of nasal and bronchial cells was determined by RNA sequencing. A combined DNA Repair score was formed using logistic regression, and its correlation with disease was assessed using cross-validation; correlation of expression to DNA Repair was analyzed using Gene Ontology enrichment. Results: DNA Repair score was lower in case patients than in control individuals, regardless of the case's disease stage. Individuals at the lowest tertile of DNA Repair score had an increased risk of lung cancer compared to individuals at the highest tertile, with an odds ratio (OR) of 7.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.0 to 17.5; P < .001), and independent of smoking. Receiver operating characteristic analysis yielded an area under the curve  of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.82 to 0.93). Remarkably, low DNA Repair score correlated with a broad upregulation of gene expression of immune pathways in patients but not in control individuals. Conclusions: The DNA Repair score, previously shown to be a lung cancer risk factor in the Israeli population, was validated in this independent study as a mechanism-based cancer risk biomarker and can substantially improve current lung cancer risk prediction, assisting prevention and early detection by computed tomography scanning.This work was funded by grants from NIH/NCI/EDRN (#1 U01 CA111219), the Flight Attendant Medical Research Institute, Florida, the Mike Rosenbloom Foundation and Weizmann Institute of Science to ZL and TPE; and by grants from Cancer Research UK to BP and to the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre; and by a UK National Institute for Health Research Senior Fellowship to BP; and by the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre to RCR. Volunteer participant recruitment through the Cambridge Bioresource was funded by the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre

Numerous proteins with unique characteristics are degraded by the 26S proteasome following monoubiquitination

The "canonical" proteasomal degradation signal is a substrate-anchored polyubiquitin chain. However, a handful of proteins were shown to be targeted following monoubiquitination. In this study, we established-in both human and yeast cells-a systematic approach for the identification of monoubiquitination-dependent proteasomal substrates. The cellular wild-type polymerizable ubiquitin was replaced with ubiquitin that cannot form chains. Using proteomic analysis, we screened for substrates that are nevertheless degraded under these conditions compared with those that are stabilized, and therefore require polyubiquitination for their degradation. For randomly sampled representative substrates, we confirmed that their cellular stability is in agreement with our screening prediction. Importantly, the two groups display unique features: monoubiquitinated substrates are smaller than the polyubiquitinated ones, are enriched in specific pathways, and, in humans, are structurally less disordered. We suggest that monoubiquitination-dependent degradation is more widespread than assumed previously, and plays key roles in various cellular processes

A socio-environmental geodatabase for integrative research in the transboundary Rio Grande/Río Bravo basin

Integrative research on water resources requires a wide range of socio-environmental datasets to better understand human-water interactions and inform decision-making. However, in transboundary watersheds, integrating cross-disciplinary and multinational datasets is a daunting task due to the disparity of data sources and the inconsistencies in data format, content, resolution, and language. This paper introduces a socio-environmental geodatabase that transcends political and disciplinary boundaries in the Rio Grande/Río Bravo basin (RGB). The geodatabase aggregates 145 GIS data layers on five main themes: (i) Water & Land Governance, (ii) Hydrology, (iii) Water Use & Hydraulic Infrastructures, (iv) Socio-Economics, and (v) Biophysical Environment. Datasets were primarily collected from public open-access data sources, processed with ArcGIS, and documented through the FGCD metadata standard. By synthesizing a broad array of datasets and mapping public and private water governance, we expect to advance interdisciplinary research in the RGB, provide a replicable approach to dataset compilation for transboundary watersheds, and ultimately foster transboundary collaboration for sustainable resource management.The project was funded by Grant No. G15AP00132 from the United States Geological Survey. Open Access fees paid for in whole or in part by the University of Oklahoma Libraries.Ye

Impacts of increasing aridity and wildfires on aerosol loading in the intermountain Western US

Feedbacks between climate warming, land surface aridity, and wildfire-derived aerosols represent a large source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, long-term observations of aerosol optical depth, surface level aerosol loading, fire-area burned, and hydrologic simulations are used to show that regional-scale increases in aridity and resulting wildfires have significantly increased summertime aerosol loading in remote high elevation regions of the Intermountain West of the United States. Surface summertime organic aerosol loading and total aerosol optical depth were both strongly correlated (p < 0.05) with aridity and fire area burned at high elevation sites across major western US mountain ranges. These results demonstrate that surface-level organic aerosol loading is dominated by summertime wildfires at many high elevation sites. This analysis provides new constraints for climate projections on the influence of drought and resulting wildfires on aerosol loading. These empirical observations will help better constrain projected increases in organic aerosol loading with increased fire activity under climate change

Hillslope Hydrology in Global Change Research and Earth System Modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐mdeep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions

The Association between OGG1 Ser326Cys Polymorphism and Lung Cancer Susceptibility: A Meta-Analysis of 27 Studies

Background: Numerous studies have investigated association of OGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism with lung cancer susceptibility; however, the findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis based on 27 publications encompass 9663 cases and 11348 controls to comprehensively evaluate such associations. Methods: We searched publications from MEDLINE and EMBASE which were assessing the associations between OGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and lung cancer risk. We calculated pooled odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) by using either fixed-effects or random-effects model. We used genotype based mRNA expression data from HapMap for SNP rs1052133 in normal cell lines among 270 subjects with four different ethnicities. Results: The results showed that individuals carrying the Cys/Cys genotype did not have significantly increased risk for lung cancer (OR = 1.15, 95 % CI = 0.98–1.36) when compared with the Ser/Ser genotype; similarly, no significant association was found in recessive, dominant or heterozygous co-dominant model (Ser/Cys vs. Cys/Cys). However, markedly increased risks were found in relatively large sample size (Ser/Ser vs. Cys/Cys: OR = 1.29, 95 % CI = 1.13–1.48, and recessive model: OR = 1.19, 95 % CI = 1.07–1.32). As to histological types, we found the Cys/Cys was associated with adenocarcinoma risk (Ser/Ser vs. Cys/Cys: OR = 1.32, 95 % CI = 1.12–1.56; Ser/Cys vs. Cys/Cys: OR = 1.19, 95 % CI = 1.04–1.37, and recessive model OR = 1.23, 95 % CI = 1.08–1.40). No significant difference of OGG1 mRNA expression was found among genotypes between differen