Spinorial Characterizations of Surfaces into 3-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian Space Forms

We give a spinorial characterization of isometrically immersed surfaces of arbitrary signature into 3-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian space forms. For Lorentzian surfaces, this generalizes a recent work of the first author in $\mathbb{R}^{2,1}$ to other Lorentzian space forms. We also characterize immersions of Riemannian surfaces in these spaces. From this we can deduce analogous results for timelike immersions of Lorentzian surfaces in space forms of corresponding signature, as well as for spacelike and timelike immersions of surfaces of signature (0,2), hence achieving a complete spinorial description for this class of pseudo-Riemannian immersions.Comment: 9 page

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Noise induced rupture process: Phase boundary and scaling of waiting time distribution

A bundle of fibers has been considered here as a model for composite materials, where breaking of the fibers occur due to a combined influence of applied load (stress) and external noise. Through numerical simulation and a mean-field calculation we show that there exists a robust phase boundary between continuous (no waiting time) and intermittent fracturing regimes. In the intermittent regime, throughout the entire rupture process avalanches of different sizes are produced and there is a waiting time between two consecutive avalanches. The statistics of waiting times follows a Gamma distribution and the avalanche distribution shows power law scaling, similar to what have been observed in case of earthquake events and bursts in fracture experiments. We propose a prediction scheme that can tell when the system is expected to reach the continuous fracturing point from the intermittent phase.Comment: 6 pages, 8 figure

Cracklike Dynamics at the Onset of Frictional Sliding

We propose an elasto-plastic inspired friction model which incorporates interfacial stiffness. Steady state sliding friction is characterized by a generic nonmonotonic behavior, including both velocity weakening and strengthening branches. In 1D and upon the application of sideway loading, we demonstrate the existence of transient cracklike fronts whose velocity is independent of sound speed, which we propose to be analogous to the recently discovered slow interfacial rupture fronts. Most importantly, the properties of these transient inhomogeneously loaded fronts are determined by steady state front solutions at the {\em minimum} of the sliding friction law, implying the existence of a new velocity scale and a "forbidden gap" of rupture velocities. We highlight the role played by interfacial stiffness and supplement our analysis with 2D scaling arguments.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Failure time and microcrack nucleation

The failure time of samples of heterogeneous materials (wood, fiberglass) is studied as a function of the applied stress. It is shown that in these materials the failure time is predicted with a good accuracy by a model of microcrack nucleation proposed by Pomeau. It is also shown that the crack growth process presents critical features when the failure time is approached.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Europhysics Letter

Cleaved surface of i-AlPdMn quasicrystals: Influence of the local temperature elevation at the crack tip on the fracture surface roughness

Roughness of i-AlPdMn cleaved surfaces are presently analysed. From the atomic scale to 2-3 nm, they are shown to exhibit scaling properties hiding the cluster (0.45 nm) aperiodic structure. These properties are quantitatively similar to those observed on various disordered materials, albeit on other ranges of length scales. These properties are interpreted as the signature of damage mechanisms occurring within a 2-3 nm wide zone at the crack tip. The size of this process zone finds its origin in the local temperature elevation at the crack tip. For the very first time, this effect is reported to be responsible for a transition from a perfectly brittle behavior to a nanoductile one.Comment: 8 page

Dynamic instabilities of fracture under biaxial strain using a phase field model

We present a phase field model of the propagation of fracture under plane strain. This model, based on simple physical considerations, is able to accurately reproduce the different behavior of cracks (the principle of local symmetry, the Griffith and Irwin criteria, and mode-I branching). In addition, we test our model against recent experimental findings showing the presence of oscillating cracks under bi-axial load. Our model again reproduces well observed supercritical Hopf bifurcation, and is therefore the first simulation which does so

Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool.

BACKGROUND: The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST), and potential future refinements. METHODS: The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed. RESULTS: High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum). Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage estimated using expert opinion for all other interventions. Going forward, potential improvements identified include improving of effectiveness and coverage estimates for included interventions and addition of further interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Known effective interventions have the potential to reduce stillbirths and can be modelled using the LiST tool. Data for stillbirths are improving. Going forward the LiST tool should seek, where possible, to incorporate these improving data, and to continually be refined to provide an increasingly reliable tool for policy and programming purposes

Dynamics and Instabilities of Planar Tensile Cracks in Heterogeneous Media

The dynamics of tensile crack fronts restricted to advance in a plane are studied. In an ideal linear elastic medium, a propagating mode along the crack front with a velocity slightly less than the Rayleigh wave velocity, is found to exist. But the dependence of the effective fracture toughness $\Gamma(v)$ on the crack velocity is shown to destabilize the crack front if $(d\Gamma)/(dv)<0$. Short wavelength radiation due to weak random heterogeneities leads to this instability at low velocities. The implications of these results for the crack dynamics are discussed.Comment: 12 page

Subcritical crack growth in fibrous materials

We present experiments on the slow growth of a single crack in a fax paper sheet submitted to a constant force $F$. We find that statistically averaged crack growth curves can be described by only two parameters : the mean rupture time $\tau$ and a characteristic growth length $\zeta$. We propose a model based on a thermally activated rupture process that takes into account the microstructure of cellulose fibers. The model is able to reproduce the shape of the growth curve, the dependence of $\zeta$ on $F$ as well as the effect of temperature on the rupture time $\tau$. We find that the length scale at which rupture occurs in this model is consistently close to the diameter of cellulose microfibrils