Integration of natural and technological risks in Lombardy, Italy

Abstract. Multi-risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool for land planning, emergency management and the deployment of mitigation strategies. Multi-risk maps combine all available information about hazard, vulnerability, and exposed values related to different dangerous phenomena, and provide a quantitative support to complex decision making. We analyse and integrate through an indicator-based approach nine major threats affecting the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy, 25 000 km2), namely landslide, avalanche, flood, wildfire, seismic, meteorological, industrial (technological) risks; road accidents, and work injuries. For each threat, we develop a set of indicators that express the physical risk and the coping capacity or system resilience. By combining these indicators through different weighting strategies (i.e. budgetary allocation, and fuzzy logic), we calculate a total risk for each threat. Then, we integrate these risks by applying AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) weighting, and we derive a set of multi-risk maps. Eventually, we identify the dominant risks for each zone, and a number of risk hot-spot areas. The proposed approach can be applied with different degree of detail depending on the quality of the available data. This allows the application of the method even in case of non homogeneous data, which is often the case for regional scale analyses. Moreover, it allows the integration of different risk types or metrics. Relative risk scores are provided from this methodology, not directly accounting for the temporal occurrence probability of the phenomena

Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy)

Abstract. The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities. We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy), for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate. Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%. The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss). This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory

Soil slips and debris flows on terraced slopes

International audienceTerraces cover large areas along the flanks of many alpine and prealpine valleys. Soil slips and soil slips-debris flows are recurrent phenomena along terraced slopes. These landslides cause damages to people, settlements and cultivations. This study investigates the processes related to the triggering of soil slip-debris flows in these settings, analysing those occurred in Valtellina (Central Alps, Italy) on November 2000 after heavy prolonged rainfalls. 260 landslides have been recognised, mostly along the northern valley flank. About 200 soil slips and slumps occurred in terraced areas and a third of them evolved into debris flows. Field work allowed to recognise the settings at soil slip-debris flow source areas. Landslides affected up to 2.5 m of glacial, fluvioglacial and anthropically reworked deposits overlying metamorphic basement. Laboratory and in situ tests allowed to characterise the geotechnical and hydraulic properties of the terrains involved in the initial failure. Several stratigraphic and hydrogeologic factors have been individuated as significant in determining instabilities on terraced slopes. They are the vertical changes of physical soil properties, the presence of buried hollows where groundwater convergence occurs, the rising up of perched groundwater tables, the overflow and lateral infiltration from superficial drainage network, the runoff concentration by means of pathways and the insufficient drainage of retaining walls

A regional-scale conceptual and numerical groundwater flow model in fluvio-glacial sediments for the Milan Metropolitan area (Northern Italy)

Study region: The Milan metropolitan area lies on one of the most important aquifer in Italy, heavily exploited for public and industrial water supply. The area, covering 3135 km2 in the Po Plain (Northern Italy) with a continental climate, is bounded by the Po, the Adda and the Ticino rivers and by the prealpine foothills. Regional hydrology is characterised by a network of natural and man-made elements, and lowland springs. The sedimentary sequence, from bottom to top, is formed by meandering river plain deposits, the distal fringe of the glacial outwash plains and proximal braid-plain deposits. Study focus: This study proposes a general approach for aquifer geometry reconstruction and hydrodynamic parametrization of hydrofacies in fluvio-glacial deposits, and their implementation into a 3D regional groundwater flow model. This approach is based on sedimentologically-defined lithofacies/hydrofacies and their correlation in space to obtain nearly homogeneous subunits starting from available data (i.e. 8628 borehole logs, grain size distributions, well tests) and sedimentological knowledge. New hydrological insights for the region: The calibrated 3D FEM groundwater model allows quantifying the main components of the hydrogeological budget at the regional scale, and the fluxes among the different hydro-stratigraphic units. A sensitivity analysis of groundwater levels to the main recharge components suggests importance of anthropogenic disturbances with respect to natural recharge, and that land-use change may impact water resources more than climate change

Mid-term results of complex distal humeral fractures.

The aim of this study was to assess outcomes following open reduction and internal fixation in complex fractures of the distal humerus. Between 2000 and 2006, 34 patients were operated for complex fractures of the distal humerus. Bone fixation was obtained with a reverse Y-shaped reconstruction plate in 13 cases and with double plating in 21 cases. At final follow-up, all the patients were assessed with the Mayo Elbow Performance Score. Satisfactory results were observed in 71% of the cases despite a high rate of complications. Age over 65 years is correlated with increased risk for an inferior postoperative result. Complex distal humeral fractures are difficult to treat and are associated with a high incidence of complications. It is therefore mandatory to obtain good anatomical reduction and a stable fixation of lateral and medial columns of the distal humerus. The results observed in older patients suggest that an alternative treatment for these patients may be joint replacement

A one-dimensional lattice model for a quantum mechanical free particle

Two types of particles, A and B with their corresponding antiparticles, are defined in a one dimensional cyclic lattice with an odd number of sites. In each step of time evolution, each particle acts as a source for the polarization field of the other type of particle with nonlocal action but with an effect decreasing with the distance: A -->...\bar{B} B \bar{B} B \bar{B} ... ; B --> A \bar{A} A \bar{A} A ... . It is shown that the combined distribution of these particles obeys the time evolution of a free particle as given by quantum mechanics.Comment: 8 pages. Revte

Scars of discrete rotational bands in hot nuclei

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Assessing the impact of a community-based pro-active monitoring program addressing the need for care of community-dwelling citizens aged more than 80: protocol for a prospective pragmatic trial and results of the baseline Assessment

The aim of this paper is to describe the protocol of a study assessing the impact of a Community-based pro-Active Monitoring Program, by measuring the effect in counteracting the adverse outcomes related to frailty

Neu3 Activity Enhances Egfr Activation Without Affecting Egfr Expression

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The methylome of the hypothalamus of prepubertal and pubertal goats

Puberty is the fulfillment of fertility, a process involving physiological and morphological development. It is well known that the increased hypothalamic secretion of the gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) is essential for the activation of this process, even if the elements coordinating the timing of puberty have not been fully identified1,2. Recent studies provide proof that there is an epigenetic regulation of female puberty, and DNA methylation, the most studied epigenetic modification, plays a major role in it3. We analyzed DNA methylation patterns of 5 Alpine goats at their prepubertal stage and 5 that reached puberty in order to highlight differences in their methylome. Detection of methylated regions across the goat genome involved a Methyl Binding Domain (MBD) enrichment followed by deep sequencing (Hiseq2000 Illumina). The software ChIPseeqer4 permitted the identification of peaks corresponding to hyper-methylated regions. We have observed a higher methylation level in prepubertal goats. The distribution of the methylation peaks across the genome and within CpG islands per chromosome per group of animals has been analyzed. Furthermore, we have investigated differential methylation in genes associated with puberty. Specifically, Cbx7, coding for a core component of the Polycomb group silencing complex, and GnRHR, the gene coding for GnRH receptor, showed a higher number of peaks into two intragenic fragments within prepubertal goats. These results, accompanied by transcriptome analysis, provide a foundation for elucidating the role of DNA methylation in the complex mechanisms that drive puberty in goat species