Big brother is watching - using digital disease surveillance tools for near real-time forecasting

Abstract for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases 79 (S1) (2019).https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(18)34659-9/abstractPublished versio

Integrability of graph combinatorics via random walks and heaps of dimers

We investigate the integrability of the discrete non-linear equation governing the dependence on geodesic distance of planar graphs with inner vertices of even valences. This equation follows from a bijection between graphs and blossom trees and is expressed in terms of generating functions for random walks. We construct explicitly an infinite set of conserved quantities for this equation, also involving suitable combinations of random walk generating functions. The proof of their conservation, i.e. their eventual independence on the geodesic distance, relies on the connection between random walks and heaps of dimers. The values of the conserved quantities are identified with generating functions for graphs with fixed numbers of external legs. Alternative equivalent choices for the set of conserved quantities are also discussed and some applications are presented.Comment: 38 pages, 15 figures, uses epsf, lanlmac and hyperbasic

Liver transplantation for type I and type IV glycogen storage disease

Progressive liver failure or hepatic complications of the primary disease led to orthotopic liver transplantation in eight children with glycogen storage disease over a 9-year period. One patient had glycogen storage disease (GSD) type I (von Gierke disease) and seven patients had type IV GSD (Andersen disease). As previously reported [19], a 16.5-year-old-girl with GSD type I was successfully treated in 1982 by orthotopic liver transplantation under cyclosporine and steroid immunosuppression. The metabolic consequences of the disease have been eliminated, the renal function and size have remained normal, and the patient has lived a normal young adult life. A late portal venous thrombosis was treated successfully with a distal splenorenal shunt. Orthotopic liver transplantation was performed in seven children with type N GSD who had progressive hepatic failure. Two patients died early from technical complications. The other five have no evidence of recurrent hepatic amylopectinosis after 1.1–5.8 postoperative years. They have had good physical and intellectual maturation. Amylopectin was found in many extrahepatic tissues prior to surgery, but cardiopathy and skeletal myopathy have not developed after transplantation. Postoperative heart biopsies from patients showed either minimal amylopectin deposits as long as 4.5 years following transplantation or a dramatic reduction in sequential biopsies from one patient who initially had dense myocardial deposits. Serious hepatic derangement is seen most commonly in types T and IV GSD. Liver transplantation cures the hepatic manifestations of both types. The extrahepatic deposition of abnormal glycogen appears not to be problematic in type I disease, and while potentially more threatening in type IV disease, may actually exhibit signs of regression after hepatic allografting

Geographic information system for improving maternal and newborn health: recommendations for policy and programs

This correspondence argues and offers recommendations for how Geographic Information System (GIS) applied to maternal and newborn health data could potentially be used as part of the broader efforts for ending preventable maternal and newborn mortality. These recommendations were generated from a technical consultation on reporting and mapping maternal deaths that was held in Washington, DC from January 12 to 13, 2015 and hosted by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) global Maternal and Child Survival Program (MCSP). Approximately 72 participants from over 25 global health organizations, government agencies, donors, universities, and other groups participated in the meeting.The meeting placed emphases on how improved use of mapping could contribute to the post-2015 United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), agenda in general and to contribute to better maternal and neonatal health outcomes in particular. Researchers and policy makers have been calling for more equitable improvement in Maternal and Newborn Health (MNH), specifically addressing hard-to-reach populations at sub-national levels. Data visualization using mapping and geospatial analyses play a significant role in addressing the emerging need for improved spatial investigation at subnational scale. This correspondence identifies key challenges and recommendations so GIS may be better applied to maternal health programs in resource poor settings. The challenges and recommendations are broadly grouped into three categories: ancillary geospatial and MNH data sources, technical and human resources needs and community participation

Combinatorics of bicubic maps with hard particles

We present a purely combinatorial solution of the problem of enumerating planar bicubic maps with hard particles. This is done by use of a bijection with a particular class of blossom trees with particles, obtained by an appropriate cutting of the maps. Although these trees have no simple local characterization, we prove that their enumeration may be performed upon introducing a larger class of "admissible" trees with possibly doubly-occupied edges and summing them with appropriate signed weights. The proof relies on an extension of the cutting procedure allowing for the presence on the maps of special non-sectile edges. The admissible trees are characterized by simple local rules, allowing eventually for an exact enumeration of planar bicubic maps with hard particles. We also discuss generalizations for maps with particles subject to more general exclusion rules and show how to re-derive the enumeration of quartic maps with Ising spins in the present framework of admissible trees. We finally comment on a possible interpretation in terms of branching processes.Comment: 41 pages, 19 figures, tex, lanlmac, hyperbasics, epsf. Introduction and discussion/conclusion extended, minor corrections, references adde

Origine del Cromo esavalene in Val di Cecina e valutazione integrata degli effetti ambientali e sanitari indotti dalla sua presenza : Seconda fase - Relazione Conclusiva

Le analisi dei deceduti e dei ricoverati per le cause studiate nelle prime fasi del progetto hanno mostrato alcuni eccessi statisticamente significativi in alcune sub-aree in studio, i cui risultati sono integralmente riportati e discussi nel primo rapporto (Analisi di mortalit? in Relazione finale - prima fase - febbraio 2009) (Minichilli at al., 2009) e nel rapporto intermedio (Analisi dei ricoverati in Relazione intermedia - seconda fase - febbraio 2011) (Minichilli et al., 2011). Alcune delle patologie evidenziate, sia tumorali che non, sono di particolare interesse in quanto potenzialmente correlate all\u27esposizione della popolazione residente agli inquinanti indice presenti in modo non trascurabile nelle aree in studio (Cromo VI - Cr(VI), Arsenico - As, Mercurio - Hg, Boro - B, Trialometani (THM), Cloruri e Nitrati). Tra i comuni in studio nella prima fase sono stati selezionati quelli con maggiori criticit? per mortalit? o per ospedalizzazione, e per le popolazioni residenti in questi comuni ? stato effettuato un approfondimento mediante un disegno epidemiologico di tipo ecologico basato su dati individuali di mortalit? o di ricovero. I casi appartenenti alle cause selezionate sono stati collocati sul territorio con lo scopo di valutare l\u27omogeneit? della distribuzione di soggetti malati o deceduti (clustering) e di identificare eventuali addensamenti anomali (cluster), e in seconda battuta di valutare la plausibilit? di una relazione con alcune possibili cause (con particolare attenzione a quelle ambientali) che potrebbero aver contribuito agli eccessi evidenziati in microaree sub comunali.Le analisi dei deceduti e dei ricoverati per le cause studiate nelle prime fasi del progetto hanno mostrato alcuni eccessi statisticamente significativi in alcune sub-aree in studio, i cui risultati sono integralmente riportati e discussi nel primo rapporto (Analisi di mortalit? in Relazione finale - prima fase - febbraio 2009) (Minichilli at al., 2009) e nel rapporto intermedio (Analisi dei ricoverati in Relazione intermedia - seconda fase - febbraio 2011) (Minichilli et al., 2011). Alcune delle patologie evidenziate, sia tumorali che non, sono di particolare interesse in quanto potenzialmente correlate all\u27esposizione della popolazione residente agli inquinanti indice presenti in modo non trascurabile nelle aree in studio (Cromo VI - Cr(VI), Arsenico - As, Mercurio - Hg, Boro - B, Trialometani (THM), Cloruri e Nitrati). Tra i comuni in studio nella prima fase sono stati selezionati quelli con maggiori criticit? per mortalit? o per ospedalizzazione, e per le popolazioni residenti in questi comuni ? stato effettuato un approfondimento mediante un disegno epidemiologico di tipo ecologico basato su dati individuali di mortalit? o di ricovero. I casi appartenenti alle cause selezionate sono stati collocati sul territorio con lo scopo di valutare l\u27omogeneit? della distribuzione di soggetti malati o deceduti (clustering) e di identificare eventuali addensamenti anomali (cluster), e in seconda battuta di valutare la plausibilit? di una relazione con alcune possibili cause (con particolare attenzione a quelle ambientali) che potrebbero aver contribuito agli eccessi evidenziati in microaree sub comunali

Confluence of geodesic paths and separating loops in large planar quadrangulations

We consider planar quadrangulations with three marked vertices and discuss the geometry of triangles made of three geodesic paths joining them. We also study the geometry of minimal separating loops, i.e. paths of minimal length among all closed paths passing by one of the three vertices and separating the two others in the quadrangulation. We concentrate on the universal scaling limit of large quadrangulations, also known as the Brownian map, where pairs of geodesic paths or minimal separating loops have common parts of non-zero macroscopic length. This is the phenomenon of confluence, which distinguishes the geometry of random quadrangulations from that of smooth surfaces. We characterize the universal probability distribution for the lengths of these common parts.Comment: 48 pages, 33 color figures. Final version, with one concluding paragraph and one reference added, and several other small correction

The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning

Gender-Specific Marketing Strategies Used by Sports Supplements: A Descriptive Study

While the use of sports supplements is common among athletes and active adults, the marketing strategies used by these sports supplement manufacturers remain unknown—especially relative to active and athletic women. This descriptive study aims to describe marketing strategies used, such as color choices, structure function claims, and picture choice, and analyze if there are gender-specific differences within the strategies. A total of 100 best-selling sports supplements were selected from three separate third-party websites. Food products, accessories, and kitchen appliances were excluded. Supplement main webpages and sports supplement-specific webpages were explored to determine which marketing strategies were used and if there were gender-specific differences. Of 169 sports supplement webpages reviewed, only 23.1% (n=39) included pictures that were only/majority female. Only 7.1% (n=12) of supplement bottles used feminine colors, while for supplement pages, only 8.3% (n=14) utilized feminine colors and 43.2% (n=73) used masculine colors. While the number of women athletes continues to grow, sports supplement manufacturers are not using strategies targeted to women. Future research should examine the reasons for this discrepancy and women’s perceptions of purchasing sports supplements targeted to men