Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

‘Stop-go’ policy and the restriction of post-war British house-building

From the mid-1950s to the early 1980s the Treasury and Bank of England successfully advocated a policy of restricting both private and public sector house-building, as a key but covert instrument of their wider ‘stop-go’ macroeconomic policy framework. While the intensity of restrictions varied over the economic cycle, private house-building was restricted (through limiting mortgage availability) for almost all this period. This was achieved by keeping building society interest rates low relative to other interest rates and thus starving the building society movement of mortgage funds. Mortgage restriction was never publicly discussed and sometimes operated alongside ambitious housing targets and well-publicised policy initiatives to boost housing demand. This paper outlines the evolution of house-building restriction, together with its impacts on the housing sector and the wider economy. We review the evolution of the policy framework and its consequences, compare the level and stability of British house-building during this period - historically and relative to other countries, and undertake time-series econometric analysis of its impacts on both house-building and house prices. Finally, implications for debates regarding stop-go policy, Britain’s housing problem, and the distributional consequences of government macroeconomic policy are discussed

Fatal flaws in the UK asylum decision-making system: an analysis of Home Office refusal letters

The process of deciding who is in need of international protection is well established most western liberal democracies, and has been subject to critical scrutiny for decades. And yet asylum seekers remain vulnerable to serious and ongoing flaws in that system. In this paper, based on research conducted in Afghanistan 2012–2018, Schuster explores a number of shortcomings in the asylum decision-making process, specifically with regard to the rejection of claims from Afghans. The analysis of Reasons for Refusal Letters, allows Schuster to examine the use of key tools in that process (previous cases and country of origin reports). Schuster argues that the current adversarial approach, which seeks to prove an applicant is not credible or does not need protection, undermines the legitimacy of the asylum and risks refusing protection to those in need and or condemning others to years of damaging appeals before they are granted asylum. She concludes by arguing for a shift to a more investigative approach, one that seeks to identify those in need of protection, rather than to keep numbers low

Where are the Pots and Pans? Collective Responses in Ireland to Neoliberalization in a Time of Crisis: Learning from Latin America

Since 2008, Ireland has experienced a profound multi-faceted crisis, stemming from the collapse of the financial and property sectors. Despite enduring six years of neoliberal austerity measures in response to this situation, popular protest has been muted. Using Silva's [(2009) Challenging Neoliberalism in Latin America (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press)] framework of analysis of popular responses in Latin America to that region's debt crisis of the 1980s and 1990s, this article seeks to investigate why this has been the case. We assess how the crisis is being framed among popular and civil society groups, and whether increased associational and collective power is developing. In doing so, we look at processes of intra-group cooperation, cross-group cooperation and framing and brokerage mechanisms. We then ask, where such processes exist, if they can lead to a comprehensive challenge to the neoliberal policies currently being implemented, as happened in much of Latin America. We conclude that the crisis has not yet reached sufficient depth or longevity to foster a more robust popular response, but propose that analysis of similar processes in Latin America can help us understand better why this is the case, not just in Ireland, but in other countries of Europe experiencing similar situations

Lost opportunities in HIV prevention: programmes miss places where exposures are highest

Background: Efforts at HIV prevention that focus on high risk places might be more effective and less stigmatizing than those targeting high risk groups. The objective of the present study was to assess risk behaviour patterns, signs of current preventive interventions and apparent gaps in places where the risk of HIV transmission is high and in communities with high HIV prevalence. Methods: The PLACE method was used to collect data. Inhabitants of selected communities in Lusaka and Livingstone were interviewed about where people met new sexual partners. Signs of HIV preventive activities in these places were recorded. At selected venues, people were interviewed about their sexual behaviour. Peer educators and staff of NGOs were also interviewed. Results: The places identified were mostly bars, restaurants or sherbeens, and fewer than 20% reported any HIV preventive activity such as meetings, pamphlets or posters. In 43% of places in Livingstone and 26% in Lusaka, condoms were never available. There were few active peer educators. Among the 432 persons in Lusaka and 676 in Livingstone who were invited for interview about sexual behaviour, consistent condom use was relatively high in Lusaka (77%) but low in Livingstone (44% of men and 34% of women). Having no condom available was the most common reason for not using one. Condom use in Livingstone was higher among individuals socializing in places where condoms always were available. Conclusion: In the places studied we found a high prevalence of behaviours with a high potential for HIV transmission but few signs of HIV preventive interventions. Covering the gaps in prevention in these high exposure places should be given the highest priority

Sexual behaviors and their correlates among young people in Mauritius: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Indian Ocean region, including Mauritius. National records suggest a prevalence of HIV in Mauritius of < 1% in the general population, which is one of the lowest prevalence rates in southern Africa. However, HIV-positive cases have been increasing recently in Mauritius. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in January 2003 to assess the prevalence of HIVrelated sexual behaviors and their correlates among young people aged 15–24 years in Mauritius.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We identified 1200 participants using two-stage cluster sampling. Demographic, social, sexual, and knowledge of HIV/AIDS data were obtained in face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire administered by trained interviewers. The prevalence of sexual behaviors was described in relation to gender, and the correlates of ever having had sex and nonuse of condom at last sex were analyzed using logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the target population, 30.9% of males and 9.7% of females reported a history of sexual intercourse. Of the currently sexually active participants, 50.6% of men and 71.2% of women did not use condoms at their last sexual encounter. Logistic regression revealed that work experience and marijuana use were significantly associated with men's sexual experience, whereas being out of school and drinking experience were significantly associated with women's sexual experience. For both men and women, being Christian and visiting nightclubs were associated with having ever had sexual intercourse (P < 0.05). In addition, not using a condom at the first sexual encounter and lack of exposure to a nongovernmental organization (NGO) dealing with HIV/AIDS were associated with the nonuse of condoms at the last sexual encounter (P < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Young people in Mauritius are at risk of a future HIV epidemic because behaviors predisposing to HIV infection are prevalent among sexually experienced youth. A focused prevention program targeting young people should be reinforced as part of the National AIDS Control Program, taking into account the predictors of sexual behaviors identified here.</p

Diminished mental- and physical function and lack of social support are associated with shorter survival in community dwelling older persons of Botswana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality rates for older persons in Botswana have been unavailable and little is known of predictors of mortality in old age. This study may serve as a precursor for more detailed assessments.</p> <p>The objective was to assess diminished function and lack of social support as indicators of short term risk of death.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A national population based prospective survey was undertaken in Botswana; twelve rural areas and three urban centers were included.</p> <p>372 community-dwelling persons aged sixty years and over, were included; 265 were followed-up. Sixteen subjects were deceased at follow-up.</p> <p>Subjects were interviewed and clinically assessed at home. Measures of cognitive function, depression and physical function and sociodemographic information were collected. Subjects were followed-up at average 6.8 months after baseline.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall mortality rate was 10.9 per 100 person years. Age-adjusted odds ratios (OR) for death during follow-up were; 4.2 (CI 1.4–12.5) and 3.6 (CI 1.0–12.7) for those with diminished physical- and cognitive function, respectively.</p> <p>Indicators of limited social support; household with only 1 or 2 persons and eating alone, yielded age adjusted ORs of 4.3 (CI 1.5–12.5) and 6.7 (CI 2.2–20), respectively, for death during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Older community dwelling persons with diminished cognitive- or physical function, solitary daily meals and living in a small household have a significantly increased risk of rapid deterioration and death.</p> <p>Health policy should include measures to strengthen informal support and expand formal service provisions to older persons with poor function and limited social networks in order to prevent premature deaths.</p

Health care seeking among pulmonary tuberculosis suspects and patients in rural Ethiopia: a community-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health care seeking is a dynamic process that is influenced by socio-demographic, cultural and other factors. In Ethiopia, there are limited studies regarding the health seeking behaviour of tuberculosis (TB) suspects and TB patients. However, a thorough understanding of patients' motivation and actions is crucial to understanding TB and the treatment of disease. Such insights would conceivably help to reduce delay in diagnosis, improve treatment adherence and thereby reduce transmission of TB in the community. The objective of this study was to describe and analyze health care seeking among TB suspects and pulmonary TB (PTB) cases in a rural district of the Amhara Region in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Study <it>kebeles </it>were randomly selected in a cross-sectional study design. House-to-house visits were conducted in which individuals aged 15 years and above in all households of the <it>kebeles </it>were included. Subjects with symptoms suggestive of TB were interviewed about their health seeking behaviour, socio-demographic and clinical factors using a semi-structured questionnaire. Logistics regression analysis was employed to assess associations between the independent and outcome variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority, 787 (78%), TB suspects and 33 (82.5%) PTB cases had taken health care actions for symptoms from sources outside their homes. The median delay before the first action was 30 days. In logistics regression, women (AOR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6, 0.9) were found to be less likely to visit a medical health provider than men. Those with a long duration of cough (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.03, 2.1) and those with a previous history of TB (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.03, 2.3) were more likely to visit a medical health provider compared to those with a shorter duration of cough and with no history of TB.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The majority of TB suspects and PTB cases had already taken health care actions for their symptoms at the time of the survey. The availability of a simple and rapid diagnostic TB test for use at the lowest level of health care and the involvement of all health providers in case finding activities are imperative for early TB case detection.</p

General practitioner workforce planning: assessment of four policy directions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimating the supply of GPs into the future is important in forecasting shortages. The lengthy training process for medicine means that adjusting supply to meet demand in a timely fashion is problematic. This study uses Ireland as a case study to determine the future demand and supply of GPs and to assess the potential impact of several possible interventions to address future shortages.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Demand was estimated by applying GP visit rates by age and sex to national population projections. Supply was modelled using a range of parameters derived from two national surveys of GPs. A stochastic modelling approach was adopted to determine the probable future supply of GPs. Four policy interventions were tested: increasing vocational training places; recruiting GPs from abroad; incentivising later retirement; increasing nurse substitution to enable practice nurses to deliver more services.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Relative to most other European countries, Ireland has few GPs per capita. Ireland has an ageing population and demand is estimated to increase by 19% by 2021. Without intervention, the supply of GPs will be 5.7% less than required in 2021. Increasing training places will enable supply to meet demand but only after 2019. Recruiting GPs from overseas will enable supply to meet demand continuously if the number recruited is approximately 0.8 per cent of the current workforce per annum. Later retirement has only a short-term impact. Nurse substitution can enable supply to meet demand but only if large numbers of practice nurses are recruited and allowed to deliver a wide range of GP services.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A significant shortfall in GP supply is predicted for Ireland unless recruitment is increased. The shortfall will have numerous knock-on effects including price increases, longer waiting lists and an increased burden on hospitals. Increasing training places will not provide an adequate response to future shortages. Foreign recruitment has ethical considerations but may provide a rapid and effective response. Increased nurse substitution appears to offer the best long-term prospects of addressing GP shortages and presents the opportunity to reshape general practice to meet the demands of the future.</p