CEO Turnover and Foreign Market Participation

Anecdotal evidence suggests that new CEOs with foreign backgrounds direct their firms to become more international in their operations. We examine this hypothesis formally using data on U.S. S&P-500 manufacturing firms from 1992 through 1997 and biographical information on CEOs' birth and education locations that allow us to identify changes from U.S.- to foreign-connected CEOs. Robust to a variety of specifications, we find that a U.S. firm's switch from a U.S. to a foreign CEO leads to substantial increases in the firm's proportion of its foreign assets and foreign affiliate sales. In fact, our preferred specification indicates that foreign asset and affiliate sales proportions increase 30 and 50%, respectively, for the five years after there is CEO turnover to one with a foreign background. This is in contrast to U.S.-to-U.S. CEO switches in our sample that show no evidence of changes in a firms' foreign market participation. These large effects contrast with previous literature that finds little evidence for changes in firm performance with CEO turnover.

Do Bilateral Tax Treaties Promote Foreign Direct Investment?

We explore the impact of bilateral tax treaties on foreign direct investment using data from OECD countries over the period 1982-1992. We find that recent treaty formation does not promote new investment, contrary to the common expectation. For certain specifications we find that treaty formation may actually reduce investment as predicted by arguments suggesting treaties are intended to reduce tax evasion rather than promote foreign investment.

Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment

A recent American Economic Review article by David L. Carr, James R. Markusen, and Keith E. Maskus (CMM) estimates a regression specification based upon the 'knowledge-capital' model of the Multinational Enterprise (MNE). The knowledge-capital model combines 'horizontal' motivations for FDI -- the desire to place production close to customers and thereby avoid trade costs -- with 'vertical' motivations -- the desire to carry out unskilled-labor intensive production activities in locations with relatively abundant unskilled labor. The CMM estimates pool inward and outward U.S. affiliate sales data from 1986 through 1994 and appear to support the knowledge-capital model of the MNE. We show that CMM's empirical framework mis-specifies the terms measuring differences in skilled-labor abundance, key variables that identify vertical MNE motivations. After correcting this specification error estimates no longer reject the horizontal model in favor of the knowledge-capital model. Instead, the data strongly support the predictions of the horizontal model of MNEs: affiliate activity between countries decreases as absolute differences in skill-labor abundance widen. Qualitatively identical results are also found using data that include a wider variety of parent and host countries, including data for the OECD.

FDI in Space: Spatial Autoregressive Relationships in Foreign Direct Investment

Theoretical models of foreign direct investment (FDI) have only recently begun to model the role of third countries, and the empirical FDI literature has almost exclusively examined bilateral FDI data without recognizing the potential interdependence between FDI decisions to alternative host countries. This paper uses spatial econometric techniques to examine the spatial correlation between FDI to alternative (neighboring) regions. The sign of such correlations can provide evidence for or against alternative theories for FDI motivations. Using data on OECD countries from 1980-2000, we find evidence consistent with export platform FDI in Europe.

Estimating The Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment

No abstract was submitted

BrExit and foreign investment in the UK

We explore the likely effect of Brexit on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) through its possible effect on the benchmark variables that characterize the macroeconomy. For this we propose the use of a Markov regime switching structural vector auto-regression to distinguish between the volatile and stable states of the economy and account, among other effects, for the contemporaneous effects that the frequency of FDI innately generates. Our findings suggest that, if Brexit triggers a sterling depreciation in the current economic climate, this will fuel a prolonged negative effect on FDI. FDI flows may be positively affected (at most) by a sterling depreciation after Brexit only if this event drives the UK economy to a period of highly volatile growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates: a scenario that is rather unlikely. And, even then, the sterling depreciation benefits would last for only a short period of time

Assessing market attractiveness for mergers and acquisitions: the M&A Attractiveness Index Score

This paper presents a new scoring methodology designed to measure a country's capability to attract and sustain business investment activity in the forms of cross-border inflow and domestic mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We compute a theoretically grounded Index of Attractiveness for M&A purposes based on groups of country development factors which have been identified as key drivers of corporate investment activity in economics, finance and management literature. By using the Index, which has been successfully tested against country-level M&A activity in a time series analysis, we show that the drivers of M&A activity differ significantly at different stages of country maturity. Specifically, for mature countries, the quality of their regulatory systems, political stability, socio-economic environment and the sophistication of their physical infrastructure as well as the availability of sizeable assets all determine differences in country-level M&A volume and value activity. For countries at the transitional stage, it is instead their economic and financial health, socio-economic environment, technological developments and the quality of their infrastructure and the availability of sizeable assets which drive M&A activity. We also prove the predictability power of the Index, by a set of Granger causality tests, showing not only how country-level development drives future M&A activity but also how, to some extent, the inverse relationship is also true, i.e. that M&A activity can contribute to country development

Foreign Direct Investment, Aggregate Demand Conditions and Exchange Rate Nexus: A Panel Data Analysis of BRICS Economies

In this study, we attempt to provide underlying theoretical and empirical explanations for exchange rate appreciation due to foreign capital influx and aggregate demand conditions in the BRICS economies. The empirical analysis is based on a panel dataset of BRICS countries over the time period 1992–2013 to substantiate our theoretical findings. For panel co-integration, Pedroni and Johansen-Fisher panel co-integration tests are conducted to compare co-integration among panel countries. We also analyze the results from Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test among variables and use Granger Causality to test for the causal patterns in each of the individual countries. Our findings showed that the exchange rate volatility is directly affected by the flows of FDI, GDP per capita, Capital formulation and House hold consumption. The results have profound implications in terms of exchange rate stability in the BRICS countries and associated risks