The effect of Brexit on the UK Economy (so far)

The political turmoil in the UK following the referendum on future membership of the European Union in 2016 provides a natural experiment for studying the effects of political uncertainty (in the Knightian sense) on the economy. We find that the subsequent confusion and infighting in British politics has not affected the real economy much – employment is at a historical high and output growth is positive – but there are some signs of slowing investment and house price increases. The stock market has also not been much affected although it did fall after the referendum of 2016. The main effect of the Brexit vote and the subsequent political developments is found in the currency market where news that make a hard Brexit more likely cause the currency to depreciate. We conclude that leaving the European Union without an agreement is likely to make the currency depreciate and the stock market fall while output declines. In contrast, leaving with an agreement that gives continued access to the Single Market would likely make the currency appreciate, the stock market rise and employment and output increase further

Groundwater mixing and geochemical assessment of low-enthalpy resources in the geothermal field of southwestern Tunisia

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Scrubbing process and chemical equilibria controlling the composition of light hydrocarbons in natural gas discharges: An example from the geothermal fields of El Salvador

[1] The compositional features of fluids from both fumarolic discharges and productive geothermal wells of Ahuachapan-Chipilapa, Berlin-Chinameca, and San Vicente geothermal systems (El Salvador) are described and discussed in order to investigate the complex geochemical interactions involving geothermal fluids within the shallowest part of the hydrothermal circulation pathways. Our results highlight that secondary processes are able to strongly affect and modify the chemical characteristics of geothermal gases once they discharge to the surface as natural manifestations, mainly in relation to the chemical-physical properties of each gas species. The effects of both gas dissolution in shallow aquifers and gas-water-rock chemical interactions on gas discharge composition make it difficult to get a correct evaluation of the thermodynamic conditions that characterize the geothermal reservoirs by applying the common geoindicators based on the chemical equilibria of the H2O-CO2-H2-CH4-CO system. Differently, the composition of the C1-C2-C3 alkanes and the C3 and C4 alkane-alkene pair, established within the geothermal reservoirs under the control of chemical reactions, remains stable in samples collected from discharging gas vents. These results suggest that the relative abundances of hydrocarbons characterized by similar structure and molecular size seem to be mainly regulated by the diffusion velocity of gases through the liquid-dominated system. Therefore the chemical features of the light organic gas fraction of naturally discharging fluids can be successfully utilized for the evaluation of geothermal reservoir temperatures and redox conditions, providing useful indications in terms of geothermal exploration and exploitation. On this basis, the distribution, speciation, and relative abundances of light hydrocarbons can also be considered highly promising in geochemical monitoring of active volcanic systems