55 research outputs found
An "All Possible Steps" Approach to the Accelerated Use of Gillespie's Algorithm
Many physical and biological processes are stochastic in nature.
Computational models and simulations of such processes are a mathematical and
computational challenge. The basic stochastic simulation algorithm was
published by D. Gillespie about three decades ago [D.T. Gillespie, J. Phys.
Chem. {\bf 81}, 2340, (1977)]. Since then, intensive work has been done to make
the algorithm more efficient in terms of running time. All accelerated versions
of the algorithm are aimed at minimizing the running time required to produce a
stochastic trajectory in state space. In these simulations, a necessary
condition for reliable statistics is averaging over a large number of
simulations. In this study I present a new accelerating approach which does not
alter the stochastic algorithm, but reduces the number of required runs. By
analysis of collected data I demonstrate high precision levels with fewer
simulations. Moreover, the suggested approach provides a good estimation of
statistical error, which may serve as a tool for determining the number of
required runs.Comment: Accepted for publication at the Journal of Chemical Physics. 19
pages, including 2 Tables and 4 Figure
Effect of Varying Concentrations of Ethanol and Lime Extracts Pre - treatments on the Aflatoxins and Chemical Quality Characteristics of Stored Irvingia Seeds
In this study the effects of different concentrations of ethanol and lime extracts pre- treatments on the aflatoxins contamination and quality characteristics of stored Irvingia seeds were investigated. The quantity of total aflatoxins produced by Aspergillus flavus((FR33818)) on stored Irvingia seeds was determined using ELISA method. Aspergillus flavus used for this study was identified by ITS rDNA sequence analysis by CABI identification services UK. The results showed that the aflatoxins contaminations and the overall quality characteristics of the Irvingia seeds were influenced by the pre-treatments applied. No aflatoxins were produced at the different concentrations of the ethanol and lime extracts used for the first two month of the storage period. However aflatoxins were produced from the third month but the concentrations in the stored Irvingia seeds decreased with increasing concentrations of the pre-treatments applied except for sample pre-treated with 70% ethanol that recorded no aflatoxins throughout the study period. The pre-treatments applied also significantly improved the chemical qualities of the seeds when compared with the control sample. Thus the finding of this study showed that 70% ethanol and lime extracts concentrations could be used to improve the shelf-life and other quality characteristics of stored Irvingia seeds. Keywords: Aflatoxins, Aspergillus flavus, Ethanol, Lime extracts, Pre-treatment
Infrared Behavior of High-Temperature QCD
The damping rate \gamma_t(p) of on-shell transverse gluons with ultrasoft
momentum p is calculated in the context of next-to-leading-order
hard-thermal-loop-summed perturbation of high-temperature QCD. It is obtained
in an expansion to second order in p. The first coefficient is recovered but
that of order p^2 is found divergent in the infrared. Divergences from
light-like momenta do also occur but are circumvented. Our result and method
are critically discussed, particularly regarding a Ward identity obtained in
the literature. When enforcing the equality between \gamma_t(0) and
\gamma_l(0), a rough estimate of the magnetic mass is obtained. Carrying a
similar calculation in the context of scalar quantum electrodynamics shows that
the early ultrasoft-momentum expansion we make has little to do with the
infrared sensitivity of the result.Comment: REVTEX4, 55 page
Multi-objective Dual-Sale Channel Supply Chain Network Design Based on NSGA-II
[[abstract]]In this study, we propose a two-echelon multi-objective dual-sale channel supply chain network (DCSCN) model. The goal is to determine (i) the set of installed DCs, (ii) the set of customers the DC should work with, how much inventory each DC should order and (iv) the distribution routes for physical retailers or online e-tailers (all starting and ending at the same DC). Our model overcomes the drawback by simultaneously tackling location and routing decisions. In addition to the typical costs associated with facility location and the inventory-related costs, we explicitly consider the pivotal routing costs between the DCs and their assigned customers. Therefore, a multiple objectives location-routing model involves two conflicting objectives is initially proposed so as to permit a comprehensive trade-off evaluation. To solve this multiple objectives programming problem, this study integrates genetic algorithms, clustering analysis, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). NSGA-II searches for the Pareto set. Several experiments are simulated to demonstrate the possibility and efficacy of the proposed approach.[[notice]]補正完畢[[incitationindex]]EI[[booktype]]紙
Exact results for hydrogen recombination on dust grain surfaces
The recombination of hydrogen in the interstellar medium, taking place on
surfaces of microscopic dust grains, is an essential process in the evolution
of chemical complexity in interstellar clouds. The H_2 formation process has
been studied theoretically, and in recent years also by laboratory experiments.
The experimental results were analyzed using a rate equation model. The
parameters of the surface, that are relevant to H_2 formation, were obtained
and used in order to calculate the recombination rate under interstellar
conditions. However, it turned out that due to the microscopic size of the dust
grains and the low density of H atoms, the rate equations may not always apply.
A master equation approach that provides a good description of the H_2
formation process was proposed. It takes into account both the discrete nature
of the H atoms and the fluctuations in the number of atoms on a grain. In this
paper we present a comprehensive analysis of the H_2 formation process, under
steady state conditions, using an exact solution of the master equation. This
solution provides an exact result for the hydrogen recombination rate and its
dependence on the flux, the surface temperature and the grain size. The results
are compared with those obtained from the rate equations. The relevant length
scales in the problem are identified and the parameter space is divided into
two domains. One domain, characterized by first order kinetics, exhibits high
efficiency of H_2 formation. In the other domain, characterized by second order
kinetics, the efficiency of H_2 formation is low. In each of these domains we
identify the range of parameters in which, the rate equations do not account
correctly for the recombination rate. and the master equation is needed.Comment: 23 pages + 8 figure
Optimisation of Perioperative Cardiovascular Management to Improve Surgical Outcome II (OPTIMISE II) trial: study protocol for a multicentre international trial of cardiac output-guided fluid therapy with low-dose inotrope infusion compared with usual care in patients undergoing major elective gastrointestinal surgery.
INTRODUCTION: Postoperative morbidity and mortality in older patients with comorbidities undergoing gastrointestinal surgery are a major burden on healthcare systems. Infections after surgery are common in such patients, prolonging hospitalisation and reducing postoperative short-term and long-term survival. Optimal management of perioperative intravenous fluids and inotropic drugs may reduce infection rates and improve outcomes from surgery. Previous small trials of cardiac-output-guided haemodynamic therapy algorithms suggested a modest reduction in postoperative morbidity. A large definitive trial is needed to confirm or refute this and inform widespread clinical practice. METHODS: The Optimisation of Perioperative Cardiovascular Management to Improve Surgical Outcome II (OPTIMISE II) trial is a multicentre, international, parallel group, open, randomised controlled trial. 2502 high-risk patients undergoing major elective gastrointestinal surgery will be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio using minimisation to minimally invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide protocolised administration of intravenous fluid combined with low-dose inotrope infusion, or usual care. The trial intervention will be carried out during and for 4 hours after surgery. The primary outcome is postoperative infection of Clavien-Dindo grade II or higher within 30 days of randomisation. Participants and those delivering the intervention will not be blinded to treatment allocation; however, outcome assessors will be blinded when feasible. Participant recruitment started in January 2017 and is scheduled to last 3 years, within 50 hospitals worldwide. ETHICS/DISSEMINATION: The OPTIMISE II trial has been approved by the UK National Research Ethics Service and has been approved by responsible ethics committees in all participating countries. The findings will be disseminated through publication in a widely accessible peer-reviewed scientific journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN39653756.The OPTIMISE II trial is supported by Edwards Lifesciences (Irvine, CA) and the UK National Institute for Health Research through RMP’s NIHR Professorship
Single-dose administration and the influence of the timing of the booster dose on immunogenicity and efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine: a pooled analysis of four randomised trials.
BACKGROUND: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, with a regimen of two standard doses given with an interval of 4-12 weeks. The planned roll-out in the UK will involve vaccinating people in high-risk categories with their first dose immediately, and delivering the second dose 12 weeks later. Here, we provide both a further prespecified pooled analysis of trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and exploratory analyses of the impact on immunogenicity and efficacy of extending the interval between priming and booster doses. In addition, we show the immunogenicity and protection afforded by the first dose, before a booster dose has been offered. METHODS: We present data from three single-blind randomised controlled trials-one phase 1/2 study in the UK (COV001), one phase 2/3 study in the UK (COV002), and a phase 3 study in Brazil (COV003)-and one double-blind phase 1/2 study in South Africa (COV005). As previously described, individuals 18 years and older were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive two standard doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (5 × 1010 viral particles) or a control vaccine or saline placebo. In the UK trial, a subset of participants received a lower dose (2·2 × 1010 viral particles) of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 for the first dose. The primary outcome was virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, defined as a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)-positive swab combined with at least one qualifying symptom (fever ≥37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, or anosmia or ageusia) more than 14 days after the second dose. Secondary efficacy analyses included cases occuring at least 22 days after the first dose. Antibody responses measured by immunoassay and by pseudovirus neutralisation were exploratory outcomes. All cases of COVID-19 with a NAAT-positive swab were adjudicated for inclusion in the analysis by a masked independent endpoint review committee. The primary analysis included all participants who were SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative at baseline, had had at least 14 days of follow-up after the second dose, and had no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from NAAT swabs. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose. The four trials are registered at ISRCTN89951424 (COV003) and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606 (COV001), NCT04400838 (COV002), and NCT04444674 (COV005). FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Dec 6, 2020, 24 422 participants were recruited and vaccinated across the four studies, of whom 17 178 were included in the primary analysis (8597 receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 8581 receiving control vaccine). The data cutoff for these analyses was Dec 7, 2020. 332 NAAT-positive infections met the primary endpoint of symptomatic infection more than 14 days after the second dose. Overall vaccine efficacy more than 14 days after the second dose was 66·7% (95% CI 57·4-74·0), with 84 (1·0%) cases in the 8597 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 248 (2·9%) in the 8581 participants in the control group. There were no hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group after the initial 21-day exclusion period, and 15 in the control group. 108 (0·9%) of 12 282 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 127 (1·1%) of 11 962 participants in the control group had serious adverse events. There were seven deaths considered unrelated to vaccination (two in the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 group and five in the control group), including one COVID-19-related death in one participant in the control group. Exploratory analyses showed that vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination was 76·0% (59·3-85·9). Our modelling analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Similarly, antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning by day 90 (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·59-0·74]). In the participants who received two standard doses, after the second dose, efficacy was higher in those with a longer prime-boost interval (vaccine efficacy 81·3% [95% CI 60·3-91·2] at ≥12 weeks) than in those with a short interval (vaccine efficacy 55·1% [33·0-69·9] at <6 weeks). These observations are supported by immunogenicity data that showed binding antibody responses more than two-fold higher after an interval of 12 or more weeks compared with an interval of less than 6 weeks in those who were aged 18-55 years (GMR 2·32 [2·01-2·68]). INTERPRETATION: The results of this primary analysis of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 were consistent with those seen in the interim analysis of the trials and confirm that the vaccine is efficacious, with results varying by dose interval in exploratory analyses. A 3-month dose interval might have advantages over a programme with a short dose interval for roll-out of a pandemic vaccine to protect the largest number of individuals in the population as early as possible when supplies are scarce, while also improving protection after receiving a second dose. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR), The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, the Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca
Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.
BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca
Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK
Background
A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials.
Methods
This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674.
Findings
Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation.
Interpretation
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials
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