MONETARY EXCHANGE RATE MODEL REVISITED: COINTEGRATION AND FORECASTING IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA

ABSTRACT This study re-examines the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals link with in a panel data framework. Pure time series and pooled time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models (Sarantis (1994) and Groen (2000)). Using recently developed Panel Data Techniques; we would test the exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in a quarterly panel of 19 countries mostly from developed region extending from 1973.1 to 1997.1. Present analysis would be centered on three issues. First, we test whether exchange rates cointegrated with long run determinants predicted by economic theory. For this purpose, we would be employed Pedroni (1997) and Larsson et al (2001) panel cointegration tests for empirical validation of the study. Second, we will also test the short run implications of exchange rate model. These short run implications will be tested; through adapting the panel VEC model the short run identification schemes of Johansen and Juselius (1994). The last issue is to examine the ability for monetary fundamentals to forecast future exchange rate returns. The present endeavor will follow Mark and Sul (2001) approach for forecasting in the case of Panel Data Testing.Panel cointegration; Prediction; Exchange rates.

The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration

The role of exchange rate policy in economic development has been the subject of much debate and controversy in the development literature. Interest rates and exchange rates are usually viewed as important in the transmission of monetary impulses to the real economy. In the short run the standard view of academics and policy-makers is that a monetary expansion lowers the interest rate and rises the exchange rate, with these price changes then affecting the level and composition of aggregate demand. Frequently, these influences are described as the liquidity effects of monetary expansion, viewed as the joint effect of providing larger quantities of money to the private sector. Popular theories of exchange-rate determination also predict a link between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. These theories combine the uncovered interest parity relationship with the assumption that the real exchange rate deviates from its long-run level only temporarily. Under these assumptions, shocks to the real exchange rate—which are often viewed as caused by shocks to monetary policy—are expected to reverse themselves over time. This study investigates the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials using recently developed panel cointegration technique. Although this kind of relationship has been studied by a number of researchers,1 very little evidence in support of the relationship has been reported in the case of developing countries.

Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach

The question whether real money causes real output appears to be important for many economists working in the area of macroeconomics and, has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques, producing conflicting results. One often applied method to investigate the empirical relationship between money and real activity is Granger causality analysis [Granger (1969)]. Using this approach, the causality question can be sharply posed as whether past values of money help to predict current values of output. This concept, however, should be clearly distinguished from any richer philosophical notion of causality [cf. Holland (1986)]. Present paper examines the relationship between money (both M1 and M2) and income (Real GDP) for 15 developing countries using a newly developed heterogeneous dynamic panel data approach.1 Sims (1972) postulated “the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from money to income agrees with the post war U.S. data, whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected”. Since then a voluminous literature has emerged testing the direction of causality.2 Some studies have tested the relationship between these variables and the direction of causality for a particular country using time series techniques [e.g., Hsiao (1979) for Canada, Stock and Watson (1989) for U.S. data, Friedman and Kuttner (1992, 1993) for U.S. data, Thoma (1994) for U.S. data, Christiana and Ljungquist (1988) for U.S. data, Davis and Tanner (1997) for U.S. data, Jusoh (1986) for Malaysia, Zubaidi, et al. (1996) for Malaysia, Biswas and Saunders (1998) for India, and Bengali, et al. (1999) for Pakistan]. Other studies have tested the above on a number of countries, for example Krol and Ohanian (1990) used the data for Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.K. Hayo (1999) using data from 14 European Union (EU) countries plus Canada, Japan, and the United States. More recently Hafer and Kutan (2002) used a sample of 20 industrialised and developing countries. This paper contributes to this later strand of the literature, which it extends in three directions. First, it employed a newly developed panel cointegration technique [Larsson, et al. (2001)], to examine the long-run relationship between money and income. Second, the study performs panel causality test, recently developed by Hurlin and Venet (2001), to explore the direction of causality between the said variables. Third, the important contribution of the present study is to test whether relationship between money and income is homogeneous or heterogeneous across countries

Investigation of Cloud Scheduling Algorithms for Resource Utilization Using CloudSim

Compute Cloud comprises a distributed set of High-Performance Computing (HPC) machines to stipulate on-demand computing services to remote users over the internet. Clouds are capable enough to provide an optimal solution to address the ever-increasing computation and storage demands of large scientific HPC applications. To attain good computing performances, mapping of Cloud jobs to the compute resources is a very crucial process. Currently we can say that several efficient Cloud scheduling heuristics are available, however, selecting an appropriate scheduler for the given environment (i.e., jobs and machines heterogeneity) and scheduling objectives (such as minimized makespan, higher throughput, increased resource utilization, load balanced mapping, etc.) is still a difficult task. In this paper, we consider ten important scheduling heuristics (i.e., opportunistic load balancing algorithm, proactive simulation-based scheduling and load balancing, proactive simulation-based scheduling and enhanced load balancing, minimum completion time, Min-Min, load balance improved Min-Min, Max-Min, resource-aware scheduling algorithm, task-aware scheduling algorithm, and Sufferage) to perform an extensive empirical study to insight the scheduling mechanisms and the attainment of the major scheduling objectives. This study assumes that the Cloud job pool consists of a collection of independent and compute-intensive tasks that are statically scheduled to minimize the total execution time of a workload. The experiments are performed using two synthetic and one benchmark GoCJ workloads on a renowned Cloud simulator CloudSim. This empirical study presents a detailed analysis and insights into the circumstances requiring a load balanced scheduling mechanism to improve overall execution performance in terms of makespan, throughput, and resource utilization. The outcomes have revealed that the Sufferage and task-aware scheduling algorithm produce minimum makespan for the Cloud jobs. However, these two scheduling heuristics are not efficient enough to exploit the full computing capabilities of Cloud virtual machines

ISLAMIC COUNSELING AND COUNSELING WITH COGNITIVE BEHAVIOR THERAPY TO PREVENT ANXIETY (MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEMS) A STUDENT AT ISLAMIC BOARDING SCHOOL OF SALMAN AL-FARISI KARANGANYAR SOLO

This study aims to discuss how the implementation of Islamic Guidance and Counseling with cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) in preventing mental health problems of a student at the Salman Al-Farisi Islamic Boarding School Karanganyar Solo? (2) What are the results of students after undergoing the process of Islamic Guidance and Counseling with cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) in preventing mental health problems of a student at Islamic Boarding School Salman Al-Farisi Karanganyar Solo. This research uses qualitative research with descriptive analysis. In analyzing Islamic Guidance and Counseling with Cognitive Behavior Therapy in preventing mental health problems of a student at Islamic Boarding School Salman Al-Farisi Karanganyar Solo, the data presented in this chapter are data presentation in the form of interviews and observations. In this study, it was concluded that mental health problems (anxiety) experienced by a student greatly affected the client's mental and physical condition. From the counselor's observation before carrying out the counseling process, the problem experienced by a student was that he often experienced depression and anxiety that he had experienced. In handling this case, the counselor uses cognitive behavioral therapy, the counseling process uses interviews (face to face with clients) by directing how to think positively and behave well. By changing the client's attitude or behavior. The end result of this counseling process can be seen from a change in the client's attitude or the client's behavior that is not good enough to get better

PENGUJIAN KAPASITAS KERJA APLIKATOR PUPUK ORGANIK TIPE SABUK BERJALAN PADA SAWAH TADAH HUJAN

Unsur hara tanah memiliki peran penting dalam peningkatan produktivitas tanaman. Hal ini yang kemudian membuat petani harus menggunakan berbagai jenis pupuk dengan fungsi memberikan kecukupan nutrisi serta unsur hara yang dibutuhkan dalam pertumbuhan tanaman. Pengaplikasian pupuk organik pada lahan pertanian membutuhkan tenaga dan biaya yang besar, apalagi kalau lahan tersebut luas. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut maka digunakan aplikator pupuk organik. Aplikator pupuk organik ini kemudian digandeng dengan menggunakan traktor roda dua sebagai penariknya. Penelitian yang dilakukan bertujuan untuk menentukan kapasitas kerja dan efisiensi penggunaan aplikator pada sawah tadah hujan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan metode percobaan di lapangan dan dianalisis deskriptif. Pengujian aplikator ini menggunakan tiga perlakuan kecepatan, yaitu pada 2,71 km/jam, 3,38 km/jam dan 4,62 km/jam. Ukuran petakan yang digunakan untuk masing-masing kecepatan adalah 45 m x  27 m. Hasil pengukuran dan perhitungan diperoleh bahwa kecepatan aplikator yang baik pada lahan sawah tadah hujan adalah 2,71 km/jam. Kapasitas kerja yang diperoleh adalah 0,35 ha/jam untuk kapasitas lapang teoritis. Sedangkan untuk kapasitas lapang efektif adalah 0,26 ha/jam. Dari kedua kapasitas kerja tersebut diperoleh efisiensi lapang 74,74%.Unsur hara tanah memiliki peran penting dalam peningkatan produktivitas tanaman. Hal ini yang kemudian membuat petani harus menggunakan berbagai jenis pupuk dengan fungsi memberikan kecukupan nutrisi serta unsur hara yang dibutuhkan dalam pertumbuhan tanaman. Pengaplikasian pupuk organik pada lahan pertanian membutuhkan tenaga dan biaya yang besar, apalagi kalau lahan tersebut luas. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut maka digunakan aplikator pupuk organik. Aplikator pupuk organik ini kemudian digandeng dengan menggunakan traktor roda dua sebagai penariknya. Penelitian yang dilakukan bertujuan untuk menentukan kapasitas kerja dan efisiensi penggunaan aplikator pada sawah tadah hujan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan metode percobaan di lapangan dan dianalisis deskriptif. Pengujian aplikator ini menggunakan tiga perlakuan kecepatan, yaitu pada 2,71 km/jam, 3,38 km/jam dan 4,62 km/jam. Ukuran petakan yang digunakan untuk masing-masing kecepatan adalah 45 m x  27 m. Hasil pengukuran dan perhitungan diperoleh bahwa kecepatan aplikator yang baik pada lahan sawah tadah hujan adalah 2,71 km/jam. Kapasitas kerja yang diperoleh adalah 0,35 ha/jam untuk kapasitas lapang teoritis. Sedangkan untuk kapasitas lapang efektif adalah 0,26 ha/jam. Dari kedua kapasitas kerja tersebut diperoleh efisiensi lapang 74,74%

A Poster Digital Sain Media for Humanity Interaction based Interactive Augmented Reality

Interactive and innovative learning media supported by Augmented Reality (AR) is specifically used in the field of science in helping the development of student learning process at State University of Malang (UM). This media is designed to build the pillar of learning innovation strategy through IT fusion on curriculum and learning. Specifically, the main target in the development of teaching media with interaction through AR mobile media and science posters integrated with virtual communications is to improve the visual capabilities of information. Several stages to be done to realize this service are: 1)build a framework of the system in a comprehensive manner, 2)testing with a number of students as a user response, 3)making showcase and 4)demonstrating application system with multimedia content with science materials with 3D perspective (animation and interactive video). The software engineering method used in this application development is the waterfall model, while the qualitative method approach is needed to measure the effectiveness and efficacy of this AR science product on increasing the level of student understanding after using this media through a questioner. It is expected that with the development of this media will accelerate the formation of learning innovation in life-based learning in UM in the future. In broader impact, this work will be able to make UM as a learning innovation university as the competitive and superior university as well as become a reference in the technology of learning media

INVENTARISASI ANGGREK DI HUTAN BUKIT LAWANG DESA TIMBANG JAYA KECAMATAN BAHOROK KABUPATEN LANGKAT

Indonesia has 25% of the world's flowering plant species. One of the largest flowering plants in Indonesia is the Orchidaceae family. There are 4,000 – 5,000 species of orchids scattered in various provinces, one of which is in North Sumatra. There is still little information about the Family Orchidaceae found in the Bukit Lawang Forest, the purpose of this research is to determine the types of orchids found in the Bukit Lawang Forest, Timbang Jaya Village, Bahorok District. This research was conducted from December 2020 to January 2021. The research method is exploratory by making an inventory of the types of orchids found along the exploration path. The results found 9 species of orchids (7 genera) consisting of 7 epiphytes and 2 terrestrial, namely Bulbophyllum sp., Bromheadia sp., Plocoglottis sp., Epidendrum sp., Pinalia sp., Dendrobium sp. and Dendrobium lobolatum