A statistical model of the international spread of wild poliovirus in Africa used to predict and prevent outbreaks

Published versio

Estimating the Extent of Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Infection

BACKGROUND: Eight outbreaks of paralytic polio attributable to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) have highlighted the risks associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use in areas of low vaccination coverage and poor hygiene. As the Polio Eradication Initiative enters its final stages, it is important to consider the extent to which these viruses spread under different conditions, so that appropriate strategies can be devised to prevent or respond to future cVDPV outbreaks. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This paper examines epidemiological (temporal, geographic, age, vaccine history, social group, ascertainment), and virological (type, genetic diversity, virulence) parameters in order to infer the numbers of individuals likely to have been infected in each of these cVDPV outbreaks, and in association with single acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases attributable to VDPVs. Although only 114 virologically-confirmed paralytic cases were identified in the eight cVDPV outbreaks, it is likely that a minimum of hundreds of thousands, and more likely several million individuals were infected during these events, and that many thousands more have been infected by VDPV lineages within outbreaks which have escaped detection. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of the extent of cVDPV circulation suggest widespread transmission in some countries, as might be expected from endemic wild poliovirus transmission in these same settings. These methods for inferring extent of infection will be useful in the context of identifying future surveillance needs, planning for OPV cessation and preparing outbreak response plans

Immunogenicity and efficacy of oral vaccines in developing countries: lessons from a live cholera vaccine

Oral vaccines, whether living or non-living, viral or bacterial, elicit diminished immune responses or have lower efficacy in developing countries than in developed countries. Here I describe studies with a live oral cholera vaccine that include older children no longer deriving immune support from breast milk or maternal antibodies and that identify some of the factors accounting for the lower immunogenicity, as well as suggesting counter-measures that may enhance the effectiveness of oral immunization in developing countries. The fundamental breakthrough is likely to require reversing effects of the 'environmental enteropathy' that is often present in children living in fecally contaminated, impoverished environments

Differences in Brain Function and Changes with Intervention in Children with Poor Spelling and Reading Abilities

Previous fMRI studies in English-speaking samples suggested that specific interventions may alter brain function in language-relevant networks in children with reading and spelling difficulties, but this research strongly focused on reading impaired individuals. Only few studies so far investigated characteristics of brain activation associated with poor spelling ability and whether a specific spelling intervention may also be associated with distinct changes in brain activity patterns. We here investigated such effects of a morpheme-based spelling intervention on brain function in 20 children with comparatively poor spelling and reading abilities using repeated fMRI. Relative to 10 matched controls, children with comparatively poor spelling and reading abilities showed increased activation in frontal medial and right hemispheric regions and decreased activation in left occipito-temporal regions prior to the intervention, during processing of a lexical decision task. After five weeks of intervention, spelling and reading comprehension significantly improved in the training group, along with increased activation in the left temporal, parahippocampal and hippocampal regions. Conversely, the waiting group showed increases in right posterior regions. Our findings could indicate an increased left temporal activation associated with the recollection of the new learnt morpheme-based strategy related to successful training

A theoretical framework to describe communication processes during medical disability assessment interviews

BACKGROUND: Research in different fields of medicine suggests that communication is important in physician-patient encounters and influences satisfaction with these encounters. It is argued that this also applies to the non-curative tasks that physicians perform, such as sickness certification and medical disability assessments. However, there is no conceptualised theoretical framework that can be used to describe intentions with regard to communication behaviour, communication behaviour itself, and satisfaction with communication behaviour in a medical disability assessment context. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to describe the conceptualization of a model for the communication behaviour of physicians performing medical disability assessments in a social insurance context and of their claimants, in face-to-face encounters during medical disability assessment interviews and the preparation thereof. CONCEPTUALIzATION: The behavioural model, based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), is conceptualised for the communication behaviour of social insurance physicians and claimants separately, but also combined during the assessment interview. Other important concepts in the model are the evaluation of communication behaviour (satisfaction), intentions, attitudes, skills, and barriers for communication. CONCLUSION: The conceptualization of the TPB-based behavioural model will help to provide insight into the communication behaviour of social insurance physicians and claimants during disability assessment interviews. After empirical testing of the relationships in the model, it can be used in other studies to obtain more insight into communication behaviour in non-curative medicine, and it could help social insurance physicians to adapt their communication behaviour to their task when performing disability assessment

Comportamentos agressivos em crianças e adolescentes com risco para esquizofrenia: diferenças entre gêneros

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate whether differences in aggression-related behavioral problems occur between boys and girls at high risk for schizophrenia living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. METHOD: Using the Child Behavior Checklist, we compared the prevalence of behavioral problems between genders for the offspring (6-18 years) of mothers with diagnosis of schizophrenia and a comparison group of children born to women with no severe mental disorders recruited at the gynecology outpatient clinic of the same hospital. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders, Patient Edition was applied for the evaluation of diagnostic status of mothers. RESULTS: Male children of women with schizophrenia had a lower prevalence of aggressive behavior compared to females (4% vs. 36%; p = 0.005), whereas no gender differences regarding aggression were detected in the comparison group (24% vs. 32%; p = 0.53). Logistic regression analyses showed that male gender and being a child of women with schizophrenia interacted so as to favor lower prevalence of aggressive behavior (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: These findings reinforce the notion that behavioral gender differences related to schizophrenia are already detectable in childhood.OBJETIVO: Investigar diferenças da ocorrência de comportamentos agressivos entre crianças e adolescentes do sexo masculino e feminino com risco genético para desenvolver esquizofrenia. MÉTODO: A prevalência de comportamentos agressivos foi medida utilizando o inventário de comportamentos para crianças e adolescentes, Child Behavior Checklist, e comparada entre os gêneros para o grupo de crianças filhas de mulheres com esquizofrenia e para um grupo de crianças filhas de mulheres atendidas no serviço de ginecologia do mesmo hospital. A entrevista clínica estruturada para DSM-IV (The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders Patient Edition) foi utilizada para confirmar o diagnóstico materno. RESULTADOS: Os filhos de mulheres com esquizofrenia do sexo masculino apresentaram prevalência menor de comportamentos agressivos quando comparados às meninas (4% x 36%; p = 0,005), o que não ocorreu para o grupo comparativo (24% x 32%; p = 0,53). A análise de regressão logística mostrou que pertencer ao sexo masculino e ser filho de mulher com esquizofrenia interagiram de forma a favorecer menor prevalência de comportamentos agressivos (p = 0,03). CONCLUSÃO: Esses achados corroboram para a noção que as diferenças comportamentais entre os gêneros na esquizofrenia podem ser detectadas precocemente durante a infância

How absolute is zero? An evaluation of historical and current definitions of malaria elimination

Decisions to eliminate malaria from all or part of a country involve a complex set of factors, and this complexity is compounded by ambiguity surrounding some of the key terminology, most notably "control" and "elimination." It is impossible to forecast resource and operational requirements accurately if endpoints have not been defined clearly, yet even during the Global Malaria Eradication Program, debate raged over the precise definition of "eradication." Analogous deliberations regarding the meaning of "elimination" and "control" are basically nonexistent today despite these terms' core importance to programme planning. To advance the contemporary debate about these issues, this paper presents a historical review of commonly used terms, including control, elimination, and eradication, to help contextualize current understanding of these concepts. The review has been supported by analysis of the underlying mathematical concepts on which these definitions are based through simple branching process models that describe the proliferation of malaria cases following importation. Through this analysis, the importance of pragmatic definitions that are useful for providing malaria control and elimination programmes with a practical set of strategic milestones is emphasized, and it is argued that current conceptions of elimination in particular fail to achieve these requirements. To provide all countries with precise targets, new conceptual definitions are suggested to more precisely describe the old goals of "control" - here more exactly named "controlled low-endemic malaria" - and "elimination." Additionally, it is argued that a third state, called "controlled non-endemic malaria," is required to describe the epidemiological condition in which endemic transmission has been interrupted, but malaria resulting from onwards transmission from imported infections continues to occur at a sufficiently high level that elimination has not been achieved. Finally, guidelines are discussed for deriving the separate operational definitions and metrics that will be required to make these concepts relevant, measurable, and achievable for a particular environment