Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices and non-food prices. Our main finding is that, in the long run, domestic food and non-food prices are determined by the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short to medium run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth affects food price inflation in the short run, though excess money supply does not seem to drive inflation in the long run. Our results suggest a challenging time ahead for Ethiopia, with the need for a multipronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account the cereal sector, as food staple growth is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.Agriculture; Cointegration analysis; Ethiopia; Exchange rate; Money demand; Food prices; Forecast; Inertia; Inflation

Rainfall Thresholding and Susceptibility assessment of rainfall induced landslides: application to landslide management in St Thomas, Jamaica

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10064-009-0232-zThe parish of St Thomas has one of the highest densities of landslides in Jamaica, which impacts the residents, local economy and the built and natural environment. These landslides result from a combination of steep slopes, faulting, heavy rainfall and the presence of highly weathered volcanics, sandstones, limestones and sandstone/shale series and are particularly prevalent during the hurricane season (June–November). The paper reports a study of the rainfall thresholds and landslide susceptibility assessment to assist the prediction, mitigation and management of slope instability in landslide-prone areas of the parish

Gender, Disaster, and Resilience: Assessing Women\u27s Water and Sanitation Needs in Leogane, Haiti, before and after the 201 O Earthquake

This study investigates differences in men\u27s and women\u27s access to water and sanitation in Leogane, Haiti (population -300,000), a town situated at the epicenter of the January 2010 earthquake. While research suggests that women\u27s water and sanitation access is crucial to health, security, and equity in post-disaster situations, there are a number of limitations to current participa­tory approaches in post-disaster reconstruction. Underlining the social impor­tance of water access in Haiti were reports citing a Jack of potable water and sanitation as one factor contributing to the spread of cholera, which was intro­duced by UN peacekeepers aher the earthquake. Limited access to water and sanitation facilities was also reported as a factor in the lack of security for women and children in the internally displaced persons camps. The results of this NSF-RAPID study are presented pertaining to gender issues in the context of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction efforts in Haiti. We ask specifically how gender dimensions can be integrated into community-based participatory processes of water and sanitation planning, which face many challenges in post-disaster situations. We conclude that more robust participatory processes that include women and other marginalized groups in planning and decision ­making can be used to elicit and support local knowledge, practices and preferences, ultimately leading to more appropriate infrastructure systems that will be more socially, economically, and ecologically sustainable

Reducing Biomass Recalcitrance by Heterologous Expression of a Bacterial Peroxidase in Tobacco (\u3cem\u3eNicotiana benthamiana\u3c/em\u3e)

Commercial scale production of biofuels from lignocellulosic feed stocks has been hampered by the resistance of plant cell walls to enzymatic conversion, primarily owing to lignin. This study investigated whether DypB, the lignin-degrading peroxidase from Rodococcus jostii, depolymerizes lignin and reduces recalcitrance in transgenic tobacco (Nicotiana benthamiana). The protein was targeted to the cytosol or the ER using ER-targeting and retention signal peptides. For each construct, five independent transgenic lines were characterized phenotypically and genotypically. Our findings reveal that expression of DypB in the cytosol and ER does not affect plant development. ER-targeting increased protein accumulation, and extracts from transgenic leaves showed higher activity on classic peroxidase substrates than the control. Intriguingly, in situ DypB activation and subsequent saccharification released nearly 200% more fermentable sugars from transgenic lines than controls, which were not explained by variation in initial structural and non-structural carbohydrates and lignin content. Pyrolysis-GC-MS analysis showed more reduction in the level of lignin associated pyrolysates in the transgenic lines than the control primarily when the enzyme is activated prior to pyrolysis, consistent with increased lignin degradation and improved saccharification. The findings reveal for the first time that accumulation and in situ activation of a peroxidase improves biomass digestibility

If you feed them, they will come: A prospective study of the effects of complimentary food on attendance and physician attitudes at medical grand rounds at an academic medical center

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence suggests that attendance at medical grand rounds at academic medical centers is waning. The present study examined whether attendance at medical grand rounds increased after providing complimentary food to attendees and also assessed attendee attitudes about complimentary food.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this prospective, before-and-after study, attendance at medical grand rounds was monitored from September 25, 2002, to June 2, 2004, using head counts. With unrestricted industry (eg, pharmaceutical) financial support, complimentary food was provided to medical grand rounds attendees beginning June 4, 2003. Attendance was compared during the pre-complimentary food and complimentary food periods. Attitudes about the complimentary food were assessed with use of a survey administered to attendees at the conclusion of the study period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean (± SD) overall attendance by head counts increased 38.4% from 184.1 ± 90.4 during the pre-complimentary food period to 254.8 ± 60.5 during the complimentary food period (<it>P </it>< .001). At the end of the study period, 70.1% of the attendee survey respondents indicated that they were more likely to attend grand rounds because of complimentary food, 53.6% indicated that their attendance increased as a result of complimentary food, and 53.1% indicated that their attendance would decrease if complimentary food was no longer provided. Notably, 80.3% indicated that food was not a distraction, and 81.7% disagreed that industry representatives had influence over medical grand rounds because of their financial support for the food.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Providing free food may be an effective strategy for increasing attendance at medical grand rounds.</p

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. METHODS: Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. RESULTS: From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. CONCLUSION: Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors

Prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms and their determinant factors among patients with cancer in southern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

ObjectiveThe study was aimed to assess the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms and their determinant factors among patients with cancer attending follow-up at Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital cancer treatment centre, Ethiopia.DesignInstitution-based cross-sectional study design was implemented.SettingPatients with cancer at Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital cancer treatment centre from October 2019 to December 2019.ParticipantsRandomly selected 415 patients with cancer who had follow-up at cancer treatment centre.Main outcome measuresAnxiety and depression symptoms were assessed using Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale.ResultThe prevalence rates of depression and anxiety symptoms were found to be 244 (58.8%) and 249 (60.0%), respectively. Older age (&gt;50 years) (AOR (adjusted OR)=2.24, 95% CI=1.14 to 4.40), being unemployed (AOR=1.96, 95% CI=1.08 to 3.56), advanced stage of cancer such as stage III (AOR=5.37, 95% CI=1.34 to 21.45) and stage IV (AOR=4.55, 95% CI=1.12 to 18.44), comorbid psychotic symptoms (AOR=1.67, 95% CI=1.07 to 2.61) and eating problem in the past 2 weeks (AOR=6.16, 95% CI=1.98 to 19.11) were independent factors significantly associated with depressive symptoms. In addition, cancer stage such as stage II (AOR=3.92, 95% CI=1.07 to 14.36) and stage IV (AOR=5.04, 95% CI=1.44 to 17.59) and comorbid psychotic symptoms (AOR=1.73, 95% CI=1.12 to 2.66) were significantly associated with anxiety symptoms.ConclusionDepression and anxiety symptoms among patients with cancer were considerably high. Age, occupation, cancer stage, comorbid psychotic symptoms and eating problem were determinant factors of depressive symptoms among patients with cancer. Moreover, cancer stage and comorbid psychosis were determinants of anxiety symptoms. Healthcare professionals working in the oncology unity need to conduct routine screening and treatment of depression and anxiety symptoms for patients with cancer.</jats:sec

Sulfur degassing at Erta Ale (Ethiopia) and Masaya (Nicaragua) volcanoes: Implications for degassing processes and oxygen fugacities of basaltic systems

We investigate the relationship between sulfur and oxygen fugacity at Erta Ale and Masaya volcanoes. Oxygen fugacity was assessed utilizing Fe3+/∑Fe and major element compositions measured in olivine‐hosted melt inclusions and matrix glasses. Erta Ale melts have Fe3+/∑Fe of 0.15–0.16, reflecting fO2 of ΔQFM 0.0 ± 0.3, which is indistinguishable from fO2 calculated from CO2/CO ratios in high‐temperature gases. Masaya is more oxidized at ΔQFM +1.7 ± 0.4, typical of arc settings. Sulfur isotope compositions of gases and scoria at Erta Ale (δ34Sgas − 0.5‰; δ34Sscoria + 0.9‰) and Masaya (δ34Sgas + 4.8‰; δ34Sscoria + 7.4‰) reflect distinct sulfur sources, as well as isotopic fractionation during degassing (equilibrium and kinetic fractionation effects). Sulfur speciation in melts plays an important role in isotope fractionation during degassing and S6+/∑S is 0.67 in Masaya melt inclusions. No change is observed in Fe3+/∑Fe or S6+/∑S with extent of S degassing at Erta Ale, indicating negligible effect on fO2, and further suggesting that H2S is the dominant gas species exsolved from the S2−‐rich melt (i.e., no redistribution of electrons). High SO2/H2S observed in Erta Ale gas emissions is due to gas re‐equilibration at low pressure and fixed fO2. Sulfur budget considerations indicate that the majority of S injected into the systems is emitted as gas, which is therefore representative of the magmatic S isotope composition. The composition of the Masaya gas plume (+4.8‰) cannot be explained by fractionation effects but rather reflects recycling of high δ34S oxidized sulfur through the subduction zone