Measuring Trade Advantages of the Qualifying Industrial Zones Program of Jordan and Egypt Offered by the United States for Having Signed Peace Treaties with Israel

This paper uses detailed cross country and over time data to show that despite various limitations, the QIZs of Jordan and subsequently Egypt, along with certain US FTAs, have contributed significantly to an increase in participating countries’ shares of exports to the US in the nine most common categories of clothing items for which the effects of tariff and quota exemptions are likely to be strongest. These influences, although perhaps diminishing after a certain period of time, are stronger than those of exchange rate, transport cost and changes in openness over time. What is perhaps most surprising is that these effects are quite clearly discernable even in the case of Jordan despite its lack of relevant raw materials and prior industrial experience. The results also demonstrate the very significant effects exercised by quotas and their phasing out on the changing country shares in US imports of the selected commodities

Establishing an Anthropogenic Nitrogen Baseline Using Native American Shell Middens

Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, has been heavily influenced by anthropogenic nutrients for more than 200 years. Recent efforts to improve water quality have cut sewage nitrogen (N) loads to this point source estuary by more than half. Given that the bay has been heavily fertilized for longer than monitoring programs have been in place, we sought additional insight into how N dynamics in the system have historically changed. To do this, we measured the N stable isotope (δ15N) values in clam shells from as early as 3000 BP to the present. Samples from Native American middens were compared with those collected locally from museums, an archeological company, and graduate student thesis projects, during a range of time periods. Overall, δ15N values in clam shells from Narragansett Bay have increased significantly over time, reflecting known patterns of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. Pre-colonization midden shell δ15N values were significantly lower than those post-European contact. While there were no statistical differences among shells dated from the late fifteenth century to 2005, there was a significant difference between 2005 and 2015 shells, which we attribute to the higher δ15N values in the effluent associated with recent sewage treatment upgrades. In contrast, the δ15N values of shells from the southern Rhode Island coast remained constant through time; while influenced by human activities, these areas are not directly influenced by point-source sewage discharge. Overall, our results show that this isotope technique for measuring δ15N values in clam shells provides useful insight into how N dynamics in coastal ecosystems have changed during thousands of years, providing managers vital historical information when setting goals for N reduction

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1.95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.87-2.04) and has since decreased to 0.95 million deaths (0.91-1.01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3.16 million, 2.79-3.67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1.94 million (1.63-2.29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36.8 million (34.8-39.2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65.7% in Lesotho to 85.7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Frog Model Wakeup Time on the Complete Graph

The frog model is a system of random walks where active particles set sleeping particles in motion. On the complete graph with n vertices it is equivalent to a well-understood rumor spreading model. We given an alternate and elementary proof that the wakeup time, that is, the expected time for every particle to be activated, is &Theta(log n). Additionally, we give an explicit distributional equation for the wakeup time as a mixture of geometric random variables

A prospective analysis of glove perforation in primary and revision total hip and total knee arthroplasty.

Literature in regard to glove perforation rates in revision total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is scarce. Our purpose was to determine the incidence of perforation in revision TJA. Gloves from all scrubbed personnel were tested based on the American Society for Testing and Materials. A total of 3863 gloves were collected from 58 primary and 36 revision arthroplasty cases. Surgeons had a 3.7% outer-glove perforation rate in primary TJA compared with 8.9% in revision TJA. When both gloves were perforated, the outer-glove perforation was recognized intraoperatively 100% of the time, and the inner-glove perforation was noted only 19% of the time. The surgeon has the highest rate of glove perforation. Outer-glove perforations should prompt careful inspection of the inner glove

On the gravitational, dilatonic and axionic radiative damping of cosmic strings

We study the radiation reaction on cosmic strings due to the emission of dilatonic, gravitational and axionic waves. After verifying the (on average) conservative nature of the time-symmetric self-interactions, we concentrate on the finite radiation damping force associated with the half-retarded minus half-advanced ``reactive'' fields. We revisit a recent proposal of using a ``local back reaction approximation'' for the reactive fields. Using dimensional continuation as convenient technical tool, we find, contrary to previous claims, that this proposal leads to antidamping in the case of the axionic field, and to zero (integrated) damping in the case of the gravitational field. One gets normal positive damping only in the case of the dilatonic field. We propose to use a suitably modified version of the local dilatonic radiation reaction as a substitute for the exact (non-local) gravitational radiation reaction. The incorporation of such a local approximation to gravitational radiation reaction should allow one to complete, in a computationally non-intensive way, string network simulations and to give better estimates of the amount and spectrum of gravitational radiation emitted by a cosmologically evolving network of massive strings.Comment: 48 pages, RevTex, epsfig, 1 figure; clarification of the domain of validity of the perturbative derivation of the string equations of motion, and of their renormalizabilit

A safe method of extracting DNA from Coccidioides immitis

Human-pathogenic fungi such as Coccidioides immitis and Histoplasma capsulatum must be handled in Biosafety level 3 containment facilities which make for a very awkward working environment (J.Y. Richmond and R.W. McKinney, eds. Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories, 3rd ed. NIH, Washington). In this paper we describe a safe and convenient method of extracting DNA from such fungi in which the culture is killed by steaming, allowing removal from the containment facilities, as soon as possible. The method was first developed with the non-pathogen Neurospora crassa, has worked well for both C. immitis and H. capsulatum, and should be useful for extracting DNA from any pathogenic fungus