Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market

Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy – the authors suggest.Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy – the authors suggest

Caffeine effects on AdoR mRNA expression in Drosophila melanogaster

In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether exposure to caffeine in the early stages of development affect AdoR mRNA expression levels in the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) and how this will relate to the developmental success of flies. Adenosine receptors are seen as the most important biochemical targets of caffeine. Simultaneously adenosine signaling orchestrates the development and growth of insects. We demonstrate that AdoR mRNA expression in D. melanogaster is persistent from early stages till imago. Strong alterations in AdoR expression were observed in larvae that had been treated with caffeine. However, after the imaginal molt, the differences in AdoR expression between the insects from all of the test groups evened out despite a wide range of developmental success in the groups. Taken together, these results suggest that caffeine affects the expression of its cellular targets even from the early stages of fruit fly development and thus there is a significantly lower larvae-to-adult survival rate. Moreover, we also proved that the expression of AdoR undergoes a peculiar reset during the maturation of D. melanogaster despite the conditions in which larvae developed

Real estate development enterprises in the Polish market and issues related to its analysis

We analyse the real estate developer sector in Poland and explain how the housing construction process is financed. The main economic indicators that are used in the profitability analysis are explained in detail. Moreover, we analyse the real estate developer business plan and propose a model to analyse the housing construction process, focusing on the accounting of costs and profits

Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw

This paper presents a simple disequilibrium model in the primary housing market, calibrated to the Warsaw market. Our aim is to point out that the primary housing market, due to the long construction process is always in disequilibrium, which has important policy implications. We discuss the last housing cycle and show how a combination of slight demand shocks with short-term rigid supply leads to strong fluctuations of house prices and new construction. The primary market can create a significant distress to the economy, because when house prices rise, this sector attracts capital and workers and is able to generate excessive supply, which finally can lead to the burst of the price bubble. The cyclical character is a permanent feature of the property market and can be explained by the inelasticity of supply. Market participants form price and demand expectations based on past observations. This causes frequent cycles that, under specific conditions, can lead to economic crises. We believe that the model describes the reality of the primary housing market better than equilibrium models do, so it can be useful for central banks and financial supervision institutions in the analysis of the impact of fiscal and monetary policy and regulations on the real estate market

ATM-deficient neural precursors develop senescence phenotype with disturbances in autophagy.

ATM is a kinase involved in DNA damage response (DDR), regulation of response to oxidative stress, autophagy and mitophagy. Mutations in the ATM gene in humans result in ataxi A-Telangiectasia disease (A-T) characterized by a variety of symptoms with neurodegeneration and premature ageing among them. Since brain is one of the most affected organs in A-T, we have focused on senescence of neural progenitor cells (NPCs) derived from A-T reprogrammed fibroblasts. Accordingly, A-T NPCs obtained through neural differentiation of iPSCs in 5% oxygen possessed some features of senescence including increased activity of SA-β-gal and secretion of IL6 and IL8 in comparison to control NPCs. This phenotype of A-T NPC was accompanied by elevated oxidative stress. A-T NPCs exhibited symptoms of impaired autophagy and mitophagy with lack of response to chloroquine treatment. Additional sources of oxidative stress like increased oxygen concentration (20 %) and H2O2 respectively aggravated the phenotype of senescence and additionally disturbed the process of mitophagy. In both cases only A-T NPCs reacted to the treatment. We conclude that oxidative stress may be responsible for the phenotype of senescence and impairment of autophagy in A-T NPCs. Our results point to senescent A-T cells as a potential therapeutic target in this disease

Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny

This article explains why the housing and commercial real estate market are in a permanent disequilibrium. The real estate market converges towards the equilibrium, but it changes due to credit constraints, expectations and the long investment process. The cycles on this market are much more volatile than those of the whole economy. Moreover, the market is very local. Often, one can observe the accumulation of different factors, which lead to herding and speculations and finally result in a crisis. Because the market is strongly financed by banks, problems on the market affect the whole financial system. Thus, an appropriate and prudent valuation of the property is needed, which helps to smooth the demand and also reduces the risk for the investor and the bank

On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices

This article discusses and explains the dynamics of the primary housing market, focus-ing on housing supply, demand, price and construction costs dynamics. We focus our attention on the primary housing market, because it can create an excessive supply, which can cause distress to the economy. Due to multiplier effects, even small changes in fundamental factors, such as a minor changes in the interest rate, result in demand shocks. Positive demand shifts cannot be easily satisfied, as supply is rigid in the short run. This usually makes house prices grow and developers increase their production, which will be delivered to the market with a lag. Housing developers have the marketing tools to heat up the market for a prolonged period of time. Rising prices can lead to further demand increases, because housing is a consumer and an investment good. When demand moves back to its long run level, the economy is left with excessive supply, falling prices and bad mortgages. We create a simple four-equation model, which is able to replicate the dynamics of the Warsaw primary housing market. Our model replicates historical data in an appropriate way and we apply it to forecast house prices in the next two years on quarterly basis

On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices

This article discusses and explains the dynamics of the primary housing market, focus-ing on housing supply, demand, price and construction costs dynamics. We focus our attention on the primary housing market, because it can create an excessive supply, which can cause distress to the economy. Due to multiplier effects, even small changes in fundamental factors, such as a minor changes in the interest rate, result in demand shocks. Positive demand shifts cannot be easily satisfied, as supply is rigid in the short run. This usually makes house prices grow and developers increase their production, which will be delivered to the market with a lag. Housing developers have the marketing tools to heat up the market for a prolonged period of time. Rising prices can lead to further demand increases, because housing is a consumer and an investment good. When demand moves back to its long run level, the economy is left with excessive supply, falling prices and bad mortgages. We create a simple four-equation model, which is able to replicate the dynamics of the Warsaw primary housing market. Our model replicates historical data in an appropriate way and we apply it to forecast house prices in the next two years on quarterly basis

Bibliograficzna baza danych CYTBIN

Referat omawia problematykę tworzenia i udostępniania baz danych w Internecie na podstawie doświadczeń zdobytych przez autorów w czasie prac nad bibliograficzną bazą danych CYTBIN. Baza ta została zaprojektowana i zaimplementowana z wykorzystaniem programu Microsoft Access. Wyjaśniono przyczyny wyboru tego narzędzia, uwzględniając zarówno jego zalety jak i wady. Wiele miejsca poświęcono opisowi złożonej struktury bazy CYTBIN, wynikającej z natury trudnych w implementacji relacji charakterystycznych dla baz cytowań. Wybór programu MS Access jako narzędzia do projektowania i tworzenia baz danych zdeterminował pośrednio zastosowanie metod publikacji online związanych z tym oprogramowaniem. Najlepszym rozwiązaniem okazała się technika Active Server Pages (ASP). Przedstawiono korzyści i ograniczenia płynące z tego wyboru. Szczegółowo scharakteryzowano bezpłatny serwis ASPHost, umożliwiający udostępnianie baz danych MS Access z wykorzystaniem ASP. Wiele wysiłku twórcy bazy CYTBIN włożyli w przygotowanie kwerend. Opisano problemy z ich tworzeniem zarówno dla wersji offline jak i online bazy

Posztszocialista lakásrendszerek Magyarországon és Lengyelországban

A tanulmány a magyar és a lengyel lakásrendszer átalakulását elemzi. A két ország lakásrendszereinek fejlődése számos közös vonást mutatott a második világháború utáni időszakban, s a rendszerváltás után is hasonló irányban változtak: a közösségi bérlakásszektor beszűkült, az állami lakásfinanszírozás megszűnt, a magántulajdoni szektor vált meghatározóvá, ahol a tiszta piaci viszonyokat átszövik a rokoni/családi, valamint a szocialista lakásrendszerből átöröklött kapcsolatok. A gazdaság 2000 utáni stabilizációjával párhuzamosan a lakáshitelezés gyors fejlődésnek indult, mindkét országban jelentős súllyal jelent meg a devizaalapú hitelezés. A két ország a lakáspolitikai beavatkozásai, lakáspiaci folyamatai különböztek egymástól, s a 2008-as gazdasági/pénzügyi válság is eltérően hatott. A szerzők arra a következtetésre jutottak, hogy bár a lakásrendszer fejlődése sok szempontból nagyon különböző utat járt be a két országban, ezek az utak az azonos lakásrendszerek eltérő változatainak tekinthetők. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: G21, I38, R31, R38