Reject inference methodology skewed missing data problem

Statistical models are most predictive and robust when the historical data used to build the model covers sufficient representation from the population. A financial organization uses a scoring model, developed with historical data, to determine if a consumer should be granted a line of credit for which they apply. When the existing model is too old or the applicant population has changed, a new model is to be developed, but the range of historical data, essential to the predictive model development, does not include the entire applicant population because of the declines. A technique called reject inference is typically used to infer the unknown performance of the reject population as a new scoring model is developed. This paper explores several techniques that have been published, selects the most promising technique, and introduces an adjustment to the existing technique

フィリピンにおける社会林業 (Social Forestry) 政策の展開と展望

森林荒廃国の一つであるフィリピンにおいて, 森林再生の一方法として公有林内居住者の生活の向上と荒廃林地の再開発に重点を置いた社会林業 (Social Forestry) 政策が1982年に制度化された。本研究の目的は, フィリピンの全公有林が対象である社会林業政策が, 気候的, 社会経済的に異なる条件下のいかなる社会構造の中で受け入れられているかを明らかにすることである。住民に植林を促す要因としては果実や林産物市場の存在と土地占有権の確立が考えられる。土地の収益性の向上は土地の占有意識の私有化を促すと考えられ, 両者は密接に関連していると言える。一方, 植林行動を抑制する要因としては, 既存の商品作物との空間的競合, 農業収入の多さおよび気候と密接に関連する労働投入条件が挙げられる。フィリピンにおいて社会林業政策が最も効果的に受け入れられるのは, 湿潤熱帯気候区に属し, 植栽木の市場が存在するという環境のもとで占有面積4ha以上, 農業収入の中間所得者層に属する住民であると考えられる。This study focuses on how climatic and socioeconomic conditions influences farmers' receptiveness to the social forestry program in the Philippines. This research shows that the marketing factor for the wood products, as well as the specific land tenure arrangement of the households seem to adopt the practice of tree planting as an economic activity. Farmers' consciousness of demesne over the forestlands is reinforced in particular by the marketability variable. On the other hand, spatial competition with existing cash crops, income level from cash crops, and labor input for agricultural work influenced by climatic conditions seem to constrain farmers against tree planting activities. The social forestry program in the Philippines therefore seems to function most effectively when farmers are favored by the following conditions : (a) their lands are located within humid tropical area ; (b) they occupy areas larger than 4 ha ; (c) they are in the middle-income class in relation to their agricultural output ; and (d) they have easy access to markets for the wood products from the trees

Renin blockade: a double-edged sword?

Aliskiren, a direct renin inhibitor, blocks the first step of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system (RAAS), thereby reducing plasma renin activity and the circulating levels of angiotensin I, angiotensin II, and aldosterone. Extensive RAAS blockade can be achieved through the administration of aliskiren; however, renin blockade is a double-edged sword because the renin/prorenin receptor-associated pathway is also reportedly modulated by direct renin inhibitor. This research highlight discusses the findings of a recent clinical study of aliskiren and explores the complex interactions of key molecules in the RAAS pathway in response to aliskiren administration

The influence of the distance between the backrest of a chair and the position of the pelvis on the maximum pressure on the ischium and estimated shear force.

PURPOSE: For some people with leg disorders, the alternative to becoming bedridden is sitting in a wheelchair for long periods of time. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relation between the backrest of a chair and the position of the pelvis on the maximum pressure at the ischium and the estimated shear force encountered while sitting in a chair.METHODS: Ten healthy males aged 22.4 +/- 2.3 years without pathologies in the leg and/or trunk participated in this study. The subjects were instructed to sit in a chair and the pressure and shear forces were measured under three sitting conditions: In the standard position, a 5 cm forward position and a 10 cm forward position. The effects of the positions of the pelvis on the maximum pressure at the ischium were measured by an instrument for measuring pressure distribution and the shear forces were estimated using an experimental model proposed by us.RESULTS: Comparisons were made among the three sitting positions; the range of displacement of the maximum pressure point was not significant. The estimated shear force on the seat was 15.5 +/- 12.4 N in the standard position, 34.4 +/- 8.5 N in the 5-cm forward position, and 53.2 +/- 16.7 N in the 10 cm forward position. There were significant differences among the three values (p < 0.01).CONCLUSIONS: Displacing the pelvis forward and leaning against the backrest tends to increase the shear force and raise the risk of decubitus ulcers

Probable association of T Tauri stars with the L1014 dense core

Using the Wide Field Grism Spectrograph 2 (WFGS2), we have carried out slit-less spectroscopy, g'r'i' photometry, and slit spectroscopy on the L1014 dense core. We detected three Halpha emission line stars. We interpret one as weak-line T Tauri star (WTTS) and the others as classical T Tauri stars (CTTS). Since their g'-i' colors and/or classified spectral types are consistent with those of T Tauri stars and two of them show less extinction than the cloud, these three stars are likely to be T Tauri stars associated with L1014. Adopting an age range for T Tauri stars, 1-10 Myr, the color-magnitude diagram suggests a distance of ~400-900 pc, rather than the previously assumed distance, 200 pc. This could strongly affect on the mass estimate of L1014-IRS, which is thought to be either a very young protostar or proto-brown dwarf.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, to be published in Vol.58, No.5, October 25, 200