Effect of existing practices on reducing Aedes aegypti pre-adults in key breeding containers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of existing practices of residents in reducing pre-adult Aedes aegypti (L.) infestation and to assess the effect of dengue-related knowledge on the practices. A house-to-house survey was conducted in two areas with different socioeconomic status in Ho Chi Minh City between October and November 2007. Some residents in both the areas used covers on the productive containers such as the jars and plastic buckets (i.e., 58% and 81% in the two study areas), and it was effective in reducing Ae. aegypti infestation: odds ratio (OR) of 4.0 and 4.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49-10.76 and 1.2-19.57, respectively) for the containers with inappropriate covers compared with those with appropriate covers in the two areas, respectively. Appropriate cover use was an effective practice; however, no beneficial role of the knowledge related to dengue in promoting the practice was identified

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

High potential risk of dengue transmission during the hot-dry season in Nha Trang City, Vietnam.

We visited houses and inspected water-holding containers to determine the potential risks of dengue transmission during different seasons. This survey was conducted in two neighbourhoods of Nha Trang City in July and December 2006, which correspond to the middle of the hot-dry season and the beginning of the cool-wet season, respectively. We inspected a total of 1438 wet containers in 196 premises during both survey periods; 20% of the containers were positive for Aedes aegypti larvae and 8% for A. aegypti pupae. Indoor water-holding containers, which were sparsely distributed, exhibited high pupal productivity and efficiency (pupal productivity of a type of container/prevalence of that type of container) in either the first survey conducted in July, or the second, conducted in December. Although rainfall may not influence the number and distribution of water-holding containers in the city, the high average temperature in the first survey period resulted in a higher potential risk of dengue transmission. Our analysis suggests that if intensive source reduction is conducted in summer and containers with high pupal productivity and efficiency are targeted, the risk of dengue transmission in the city could be effectively reduced

Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model

Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r?>?0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r?>?0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.Publisher Correction: A supplementary file containing Fig S1 was omitted from the original version of this Article. This has been corrected in the HTML version of the Article; the PDF version was correct at time of publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58890-

Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa

Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Nina and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread

Population Based Cohort Study for Pediatric Infectious Diseases Research in Vietnam

A population-based cohort study on pediatric infectious diseases was established at Khanh Hoa Province, central Vietnam in 2006, to determine the etiology and risk factors for severe pediatric infectious diseases (SPID) such as acute respiratory infection (ARI), diarrhea and dengue which are the major causes of under 5 mortality. A population census survey was conducted in Nha-Trang and Ninh-Hoa to collect demographic, social-behavioral data and disease burden on SPID. The study site covered a population of 353,525 residing in 75,826 households with 24,781 children less than 5 years. Hospital databases from two hospitals covering the region were obtained. Linking the census and hospital databases, we were able to investigate on a variety of SPID such as environmental tobacco smoking exposure and increased risked of pediatric pneumonia hospitalization, population density, water supply and risk of dengue fever and animal livestock and risk of hospitalized diarrhea. To determine incidence, viral etiology and risk factors for pediatric ARI/pneumonia, we setup a population based prospective hospitalized Pediatric ARI surveillance at Khanh Hoa General Hospital, Nha-Trang in February 2007. The study has revealed RSV, rhinovirus and influenza A as major viral pathogens, role of multiple viral infection and its interaction with bacteria in the development of pneumonia. In addition, we are also conducting a birth cohort study to investigate the incidence of congenital infection and its impact on physical-neurological development, and role of host genetic polymorphism on SPID hospitalization in Vietnam. Population mobility, high cost of regular census update and low mortality are the challenges

JASMINE: Near-infrared astrometry and time-series photometry science

The Japan Astrometry Satellite Mission for INfrared Exploration (JASMINE) is a planned M-class science space mission by the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. JASMINE has two main science goals. One is Galactic archaeology with a Galactic Center survey, which aims to reveal the Milky Way’s central core structure and formation history from Gaia-level (∼25 ${\mu}$as) astrometry in the near-infrared (NIR) Hw band (1.0–1.6 ${\mu}$m). The other is an exoplanet survey, which aims to discover transiting Earth-like exoplanets in the habitable zone from NIR time-series photometry of M dwarfs when the Galactic Center is not accessible. We introduce the mission, review many science objectives, and present the instrument concept. JASMINE will be the first dedicated NIR astrometry space mission and provide precise astrometric information on the stars in the Galactic Center, taking advantage of the significantly lower extinction in the NIR. The precise astrometry is obtained by taking many short-exposure images. Hence, the JASMINE Galactic Center survey data will be valuable for studies of exoplanet transits, asteroseismology, variable stars, and microlensing studies, including discovery of (intermediate-mass) black holes. We highlight a swath of such potential science, and also describe synergies with other missions

Effect of peridomestic environments on repeated infestation by preadult Aedes aegypti in urban premises in Nha Trang City, Vietnam.

To determine the effect of peridomestic environments on Aedes aegypti infestation in urban premises, we conducted two consecutive surveys in the hot-dry and cool-wet seasons. Most Ae. aegypti pupae (79%) were recovered from premises where preadult forms (larvae and/or pupae) had been detected in both surveys. Hence, repeated infestation appears to be a useful parameter to identify premises associated with a high potential risk of dengue transmission. Multivariate analysis revealed that not only the persistent presence of containers discarded outdoors, wells, large plastic buckets, jars, and concrete toilet basins in the premises (adjusted odds ratios [aORs] = 63.3, 23.3, 22.5, 6.6, and 5.6, respectively) but also the presence of six or more residents was significantly associated with repeated infestation (aOR = 6.1). Premises with six or more residents along with specific container types from which a large number of pupae were recovered should be targeted in dengue-control programs