3,172 research outputs found

    Developing Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves From Satellite-Based Precipitation: Methodology and Evaluation

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    Given the continuous advancement in the retrieval of precipitation from satellites, it is important to develop methods that incorporate satellite-based precipitation data sets in the design and planning of infrastructure. This is because in many regions around the world, in situ rainfall observations are sparse and have insufficient record length. A handful of studies examined the use of satellite-based precipitation to develop intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves; however, they have mostly focused on small spatial domains and relied on combining satellite-based with ground-based precipitation data sets. In this study, we explore this issue by providing a methodological framework with the potential to be applied in ungauged regions. This framework is based on accounting for the characteristics of satellite-based precipitation products, namely, adjustment of bias and transformation of areal to point rainfall. The latter method is based on previous studies on the reverse transformation (point to areal) commonly used to obtain catchment-scale IDF curves. The paper proceeds by applying this framework to develop IDF curves over the contiguous United States (CONUS); the data set used is Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks – Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). IDFs are then evaluated against National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 to provide a quantitative estimate of their accuracy. Results show that median errors are in the range of (17–22%), (6–12%), and (3–8%) for one-day, two-day and three-day IDFs, respectively, and return periods in the range (2–100) years. Furthermore, a considerable percentage of satellite-based IDFs lie within the confidence interval of NOAA Atlas 14

    A Policy Maker’s Guide to Designing Payments for Ecosystem Services

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    Over the past five years, there has been increasing interest around the globe in payment schemes for the provision of ecosystem services, such as water purification, carbon sequestration, flood control, etc. Written for an Asian Development Bank project in China, this report provides a user-friendly guide to designing payments for the provision of ecosystem services. Part I explains the different types of ecosystem services, different ways of assessing their value, and why they are traditionally under-protected by law and policy. This is followed by an analysis of when payments for services are a preferable approach to other policy instruments. Part II explains the design issues underlying payments for services. These include identification of the service as well as potential buyers and sellers, the level of service needed, payment timing, payment type, and risk allocation. Part II contains a detailed analysis of the different types of payment mechanisms, ranging from general subsidy and certification to mitigation and offset payments. Part III explores the challenges to designing a payment scheme. These include the ability to monitor service provision, secure property rights, perverse incentives, supporting institutions, and poverty alleviation

    Chaos, containment and change: responding to persistent offending by young people

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    This article reviews policy developments in Scotland concerning 'persistent young offenders' and then describes the design of a study intended to assist a local planning group in developing its response. The key findings of a review of casefiles of young people involved in persistent offending are reported. It emerges that youth crime and young people involved in offending are more complex and heterogeneous than is sometimes assumed. This, along with a review of some literature about desistance from offending, reaffirms the need for properly individualised interventions. Studies of 'desisters' suggest the centrality of effective and engaging working relationships in this process. However, these studies also re-assert the significance of the social contexts of workers’ efforts to bring 'change' out of 'chaos'. We conclude therefore that the 'new correctionalism' must be tempered with appreciation of the social exclusion of young people who offend

    Dynamics and stability of the Godel universe

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    We use covariant techniques to describe the properties of the Godel universe and then consider its linear response to a variety of perturbations. Against matter aggregations, we find that the stability of the Godel model depends primarily upon the presence of gradients in the centrifugal energy, and secondarily on the equation of state of the fluid. The latter dictates the behaviour of the model when dealing with homogeneous perturbations. The vorticity of the perturbed Godel model is found to evolve as in almost-FRW spacetimes, with some additional directional effects due to shape distortions. We also consider gravitational-wave perturbations by investigating the evolution of the magnetic Weyl component. This tensor obeys a simple plane-wave equation, which argues for the neutral stability of the Godel model against linear gravity-wave distortions. The implications of the background rotation for scalar-field Godel cosmologies are also discussed.Comment: Revised version, to match paper published in Class. Quantum Gra

    Recombination rate and selection strength in HIV intra-patient evolution

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    The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible, as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes is available.Comment: to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog
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