An integrated method for ranking of risk in BOT projects

In BOT approach, the private sector is granted a concession to plan, design, construct, operate and maintain a project in a certain period of time and after that it should be transferred to the government. In this paper, at first the risks of the BOT projects are identified, then we rank the risks based on their severity and effect on project objectives (time, cost, quality, safety and environmental) by two methods, namely FTOPSIS and FSAW. In the next stage, obtained results by NGT method are integrated. Afterward, the occurrence and detection values of each risk are determined by experts and ultimately the risks are evaluated according to risk priority number (RPN) of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) technique. Finally, an example is shown to highlight the procedure of the proposed method at the end of this paper

A Fuzzy AHP Model in Risk Ranking

The signification risks associated with construction projects need special attention from contractors to analyze and mange the risks. Risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk factors throughout the life cycle of the project and in the best interest of its objectives. In proposed model, we firstly identify risks in the construction projects and suitable criteria for evaluate risks and then structure the proposed AHP model. Finally we measure the significant risks in construction projects (SRCP) based on the project’s objectives by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) technique. Keyword: Construction projects, Project Risk Management, Fuzzy AH

An integrated method for ranking of risk in BOT projects

In BOT approach, the private sector is granted a concession to plan, design, construct, operate and maintain a project in a certain period of time and after that it should be transferred to the government. In this paper, at first the risks of the BOT projects are identified, then we rank the risks based on their severity and effect on project objectives (time, cost, quality, safety and environmental) by two methods, namely FTOPSIS and FSAW. In the next stage, obtained results by NGT method are integrated. Afterward, the occurrence and detection values of each risk are determined by experts and ultimately the risks are evaluated according to risk priority number (RPN) of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) technique. Finally, an example is shown to highlight the procedure of the proposed method at the end of this paper

Genetic characterization of Garra rufa (Heckel, 1843) populations in Tigris Basin, Iran using microsatellite markers

The isolation-by-distance theory states that the genetic differentiation between individuals raised by increasing geographic distance. Therefore, this study tested this hypothesis for Garra rufa, a freshwater fish species of Iranian inland waters, from six rivers located at the different distances in Tirgis basin. For this purpose, eight variable microsatellite loci were applied to identify geographic-based population structure of G. rufa. From 240 fish of six populations, 102 alleles were found with a mean number of 11.625 to 13.250 alleles. Heterozygosity was ranged 0.567-0.638 in six studied populations. Moreover, a significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg were found in the studied populations. Unweight pair group analysis indicated that the six studied populations could be divided into four major clusters. The results revealed a fairly high level of genetic variation in the microsatellite loci within six studied populations. Wright’s fixation index (Fst) ranged between 0.013-0.044 indicating little genetic differentiation between populations. Within this range, however, we found a strong positive relation between Fst and geographical distance lending support to the isolation-by-distance theory

Hydrogen embrittlement behavior in FeCCrNiBSi TRIP steel

The effect of plastic deformations on the hydrogen embrittlement (HE) of transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) steel was studied. In situ tensile tests showed that with increasing hydrogen current density, total elongation loss was raised to 36.8% as compared to an uncharged specimen. The electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) observation indicated that hydrogen charging decreased stacking fault energy (SFE), resulting in the formation of more α′- martensite by both indirect and direct transformation. The α′- martensite volume fraction at the same degree of deformation in uncharged and charged samples was 31% and 39%, respectively. With plastic deformation, reversible trap sites were raised because of the increased dislocation density and the formation of α′- martensite, which was obtained from EBSD characterization and had a good correlation with the results of the thermal desorption spectroscopy (TDS) analysis

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Extracting, recognizing, and counting white blood cells from microscopic images by using complex-valued neural networks

In this paper a method related to extracting white blood cells (WBCs) from blood microscopic images and recognizing them and counting each kind of WBCs is presented. In medical science diagnosis by check the number of WBCs and compared with normal number of them is a new challenge and in this context has been discussed it. After reviewing the methods of extracting WBCs from hematology images, because of high applicability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in classification we decided to use this effective method to classify WBCs, and because of high speed and stable convergence of complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs) compare to the real one, we used them to classification purpose. In the method that will be introduced, first the white blood cells are extracted by RGB color system′s help. In continuance, by using the features of each kind of globules and their color scheme, a normalized feature vector is extracted, and for classifying, it is sent to a complex-valued back-propagation neural network. And at last, the results are sent to the output in the shape of the quantity of each of white blood cells. Despite the low quality of the used images, our method has high accuracy in extracting and recognizing WBCs by CVNNs, and because of this, certainly its result on high quality images will be acceptable. Learning time of complex-valued neural networks, that are used here, was significantly less than real-valued neural networks