Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Implementation and evaluation of a store-and-forward teledermatology workflow in a United States safety-net hospital urgent care emergency center: A retrospective cohort studyCapsule Summary

Background: Teledermatology (TD) is an important method for increasing access to care in outpatient settings. However, less is known regarding its use in emergency/urgent care centers. Objective: To evaluate the effect of TD on urgent care emergency center (UCEC) dwell time and postencounter utilization. Study type and methods: This retrospective cohort study evaluated patients in a safety-net hospital (Parkland Health, Dallas, Texas, USA) UCEC, who (1) received a TD consult in 2018, (2) were referred to dermatology clinic in 2017, or (3) were referred to dermatology clinic in 2018 without a TD consult. Results: We evaluated 2024 patients from 2017 to 2018. Of the 973 referred to dermatology clinic in 2018, 332 (34%) received TD consultations. Mean dwell time for patients receiving TD was longer versus the 2017 cohort (303 vs 204 minutes, respectively). Patients receiving TD consultation with inflammatory skin conditions had lower odds of dermatology clinic visits compared with those that did not (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.8). Teledermatology was not associated with differences in repeat UCEC utilization. Limitations: Single institution study and inability to account for differences in patient complexity. Conclusion: TD increases dwell time in a safety-net hospital’s UCEC but can reduce dermatology clinic utilization for patients with inflammatory skin conditions

Direct observation of the dead-cone effect in quantum chromodynamics

The direct measurement of the QCD dead cone in charm quark fragmentation is reported, using iterative declustering of jets tagged with a fully reconstructed charmed hadron

Direct observation of the dead-cone effect in quantum chromodynamics

At particle collider experiments, elementary particle interactions with large momentum transfer produce quarks and gluons (known as partons) whose evolution is governed by the strong force, as described by the theory of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) [1]. The vacuum is not transparent to the partons and induces gluon radiation and quark pair production in a process that can be described as a parton shower [2]. Studying the pattern of the parton shower is one of the key experimental tools in understanding the properties of QCD. This pattern is expected to depend on the mass of the initiating parton, through a phenomenon known as the dead-cone effect, which predicts a suppression of the gluon spectrum emitted by a heavy quark of mass m and energy E, within a cone of angular size m/E around the emitter [3]. A direct observation of the dead-cone effect in QCD has not been possible until now, due to the challenge of reconstructing the cascading quarks and gluons from the experimentally accessible bound hadronic states. Here we show the first direct observation of the QCD dead-cone by using new iterative declustering techniques [4, 5] to reconstruct the parton shower of charm quarks. This result confirms a fundamental feature of QCD, which is derived more generally from its origin as a gauge quantum field theory. Furthermore, the measurement of a dead-cone angle constitutes the first direct experimental observation of the non-zero mass of the charm quark, which is a fundamental constant in the standard model of particle physics.The direct measurement of the QCD dead cone in charm quark fragmentation is reported, using iterative declustering of jets tagged with a fully reconstructed charmed hadron.In particle collider experiments, elementary particle interactions with large momentum transfer produce quarks and gluons (known as partons) whose evolution is governed by the strong force, as described by the theory of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). These partons subsequently emit further partons in a process that can be described as a parton shower which culminates in the formation of detectable hadrons. Studying the pattern of the parton shower is one of the key experimental tools for testing QCD. This pattern is expected to depend on the mass of the initiating parton, through a phenomenon known as the dead-cone effect, which predicts a suppression of the gluon spectrum emitted by a heavy quark of mass $m_{\rm{Q}}$ and energy $E$, within a cone of angular size $m_{\rm{Q}}$/$E$ around the emitter. Previously, a direct observation of the dead-cone effect in QCD had not been possible, owing to the challenge of reconstructing the cascading quarks and gluons from the experimentally accessible hadrons. We report the direct observation of the QCD dead cone by using new iterative declustering techniques to reconstruct the parton shower of charm quarks. This result confirms a fundamental feature of QCD. Furthermore, the measurement of a dead-cone angle constitutes a direct experimental observation of the non-zero mass of the charm quark, which is a fundamental constant in the standard model of particle physics

Measurement of the lifetime and Λ separation energy of 3ΛH

The most precise measurements to date of the 3ΛH lifetime τ and Λ separation energy BΛ are obtained using the data sample of Pb-Pb collisions at √= 5.02 TeV collected by ALICE at the LHC. The 3ΛH is reconsNN structed via its charged two-body mesonic decay channel (3ΛH→ 3He + π− and the charge-conjugate process). The measured values τ=[253±11 (stat.)±6 (syst.)] ps and BΛ=[102±63 (stat.)±67 (syst.)] keV are compatible with predictions from effective field theories and confirm that the 3ΛH structure is consistent with a weakly-bound system

Σ(1385)± resonance production in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV

Hadronic resonances are used to probe the hadron gas produced in the late stage of heavy-ion collisions since they decay on the same timescale, of the order of 1 to 10 fm/c, as the decoupling time of the system. In the hadron gas, (pseudo)elastic scatterings among the products of resonances that decayed before the kinetic freeze-out and regeneration processes counteract each other, the net effect depending on the resonance lifetime, the duration of the hadronic phase, and the hadronic cross sections at play. In this context, the Σ(1385)± particle is of particular interest as models predict that regeneration dominates over rescattering despite its relatively short lifetime of about 5.5 fm/c. The first measurement of the Σ(1385)± resonance production at midrapidity in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector is presented in this Letter. The resonances are reconstructed via their hadronic decay channel, Λπ, as a function of the transverse momentum (pT) and the collision centrality. The results are discussed in comparison with the measured yield of pions and with expectations from the statistical hadronization model as well as commonly employed event generators, including PYTHIA8/Angantyr and EPOS3 coupled to the UrQMD hadronic cascade afterburner. None of the models can describe the data. For Σ(1385)±, a similar behaviour as K∗(892)0 is observed in data unlike the predictions of EPOS3 with afterburner

Investigation of K+K− interactions via femtoscopy in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Femtoscopic correlations of non-identical charged kaons (K+K−) are studied in Pb−Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon−nucleon collision sNN−−−√=2.76 TeV by ALICE at the LHC. One-dimensional K+K− correlation functions are analyzed in three centrality classes and eight intervals of particle-pair transverse momentum. The Lednický and Luboshitz interaction model used in the K+K− analysis includes the final-state Coulomb interactions between kaons and the final-state interaction through a0(980) and f0(980) resonances. The mass of f0(980) and coupling were extracted from the fit to K+K− correlation functions using the femtoscopic technique for the first time. The measured mass and width of the f0(980) resonance are consistent with other published measurements. The height of the ϕ(1020) meson peak present in the K+K− correlation function rapidly decreases with increasing source radius, qualitatively in agreement with an inverse volume dependence. A phenomenological fit to this trend suggests that the ϕ(1020) meson yield is dominated by particles produced directly from the hadronization of the system. The small fraction subsequently produced by FSI could not be precisely quantified with data presented in this paper and will be assessed in future work