Comparing Physics Scheme Performance for a Lake Effect Snowfall Event in Northern Lower Michigan

High resolution forecast models, such as those used to predict severe convective storms, can also be applied to predictions of lake effect snowfall. A high resolution WRF model forecast model is provided to support operations at NWS WFO Gaylord, Michigan, using a 12 ]km and 4 ]km nested configuration. This is comparable to the simulations performed by other NWS WFOs adjacent to the Great Lakes, including offices in the NWS Eastern Region who participate in regional ensemble efforts. Ensemble efforts require diversity in initial conditions and physics configurations to emulate the plausible range of events in order to ascertain the likelihood of different forecast scenarios. In addition to providing probabilistic guidance, individual members can be evaluated to determine whether they appear to be biased in some way, or to better understand how certain physics configurations may impact the resulting forecast. On January 20 ]21, 2011, a lake effect snow event occurred in Northern Lower Michigan, with cooperative observing and CoCoRaHS stations reporting new snow accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and liquid equivalents of 0.1 ]0.25 h. The event of January 21, 2011 was particularly well observed, with numerous surface reports available. It was also well represented by the WRF configuration operated at NWS Gaylord. Given that the default configuration produced a reasonable prediction, it is used here to evaluate the impacts of other physics configurations on the resulting prediction of the primary lake effect band and resulting QPF. Emphasis here is on differences in planetary boundary layer and cloud microphysics parameterizations, given their likely role in determining the evolution of shallow convection and precipitation processes. Results from an ensemble of seven microphysics schemes and three planetary boundary layer schemes are presented to demonstrate variability in forecast evolution, with results used in an attempt to improve the forecasts in the 2011 ]2012 lake effect season

The Tail Flip Escape Response of the Brown Shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the Context of Predator-Prey Interactions

This investigation has used high speed and conventional video techniques to investigate the tail flip escape behaviour of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the context of predator-prey interactions. Shrimp length has a significant effect upon the displacement, velocity and acceleration achieved during a tail flip. Displacement per tail flip increases from approximately 12 mm in small (10 mm) shrimps, to 90 mm in large (> 60 mm) shrimps. Mean velocity, maximum velocity and maximum acceleration increase from approximately 0.4 m.s-l, 0.6 m.s-1 and 70 m.s-2 respectively in small shrimps, to 1.1 m.s-1, 1.8 m.s-1 and 160 m.s-2 in shrimps of between 50-60 mm, but performance in shrimps larger than this declines slightly. The body flexion movement of Crangon crangon during tail flips is relatively symmetrical, with the result that both the head region and the tail region are moved through the water with respect to the shrimp's centre of mass. This is associated with the use of a head fan (formed by expansion of the antennal scales) as well as a tail fan (formed by expansion of the uropods) for generating thrust. Removal of the head fan results in a decline in tail flip velocity by 35 %, compared with a 58 % decline when the tail fan is removed. Escapes by Crangon crangon have been found to consist of either a single tail flip, or a series of tail flips which together constitute an escape swimming bout. The first flexion phase of an escape translates the shrimp laterally or vertically depending on whether its body is rotated about the longitudinal axis during the initial stages of an escape. If the first flexion is vertical, a lateral roll often occurs during the following re-extension phase. Consequently, subsequent tail flips of an escape occur with the shrimp swimming on its side, and steering in the horizontal plane is achieved by modifying the angle of rotational pitch between one tail flip and the next. This tail flip mechanism is in direct contrast to that of many other types of larger decapods, which instead tend to tail flip in an upright body position. Horizontal escape trajectories of shrimps have been investigated in an arena with a hard substratum (preventing shrimps from burying) using both a natural stimulus (juvenile cod, Gadus morhua) and an artificial stimulus (a wooden rod) to evoke tail flip responses. Both types of stimuli result in the first tail flip of a response being laterally (rather than vertically) directed, and generate similar escape trajectories. When a shrimp is attacked from either head-on or tail-on, the probability of an escape occurring to the left side of the shrimp is approximately equal to an escape occurring to the right side. If an attack occurs from the side of a shrimp, escapes are directed preferentially to the contralateral side of the stimulus. Also, if the shrimp is exposed to a lateral sub-threshold pre-stimulus before being attacked from the front or the rear, escapes are directed preferentially to the contralateral side of the prestimulus. The escape angle of the first tail flip of a response (with respect to the shrimp's body axis, where the head =

Canine socialisation: a narrative systematic review

There are over 10 million pet dogs in the UK alone, and they have become a member of modern human families. If not properly socialised as puppies, dogs have a higher risk of problematic behaviours during adulthood, yet socialisation studies are lacking. Much of the experimental research was carried out at least 50 years ago, and the importance of socialisation was demonstrated so clearly that further studies with unsocialised controls would be deemed unethical. In this review, the aim was to evaluate all literature relevant to canine socialisation. This review used PRISMA-P guidelines to identify 29 studies: 14 were questionnaire-based studies (two of which also had a testing element), 15 included some form of experimental manipulation relating to socialisation, and one was a purely observational study. Based on this literature review, we recommend future research into minimum necessary socialisation levels, as well as breed differences in the timing of effective socialisation. Such studies will help owners and breeders produce well-adjusted adult dogs

Effect of environmental complexity and stocking density on fear and anxiety in broiler chickens

Barren housing and high stocking densities may contribute to negative affective states in broiler chickens, reducing their welfare. We investigated the effects of environmental complexity and stocking density on broilers’ attention bias (measure of anxiety) and tonic immobility (measure of fear). In Experiment 1, individual birds were tested for attention bias (n = 60) and in Experiment 2, groups of three birds were tested (n = 144). Tonic immobility testing was performed on days 12 and 26 (n = 36) in Experiment 1, and on day 19 (n = 72) in Experiment 2. In Experiment 1, no differences were observed in the attention bias test. In Experiment 2, birds from high-complexity pens began feeding faster and more birds resumed feeding than from low-complexity pens following playback of an alarm call, suggesting that birds housed in the complex environment were less anx-ious. Furthermore, birds housed in high-density or high-complexity pens had shorter tonic immobility durations on day 12 compared to day 26 in Experiment 1. In Experiment 2, birds from high-density pens had shorter tonic immobility durations than birds housed in low-density pens, which is contrary to expectations. Our results suggest that birds at 3 weeks of age were less fearful under high stocking density conditions than low density conditions. In addition, results indicated that the complex environment improved welfare of broilers through reduced anxiety

An assessment of students', academics' and health professionals' abilities to site stomas accurately on human cadavers

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The etiological role of common respiratory viruses in acute respiratory infections in older adults::A systematic review and meta-analysis

Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI) constitute a substantial disease burden in adults and elderly individuals. We aimed to identify all case-control studies investigating the potential role of respiratory viruses in the etiology of ARI in older adults aged ≥65 years. We conducted a systematic literature review (across 7 databases) of case-control studies published from 1996 to 2017 that investigated the viral profile of older adults with and those without ARI. We then computed a pooled odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval and virus-specific attributable fraction among the exposed (AFE) for 8 common viruses: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza virus (Flu), parainfluenza virus (PIV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), adenovirus (AdV), rhinovirus (RV), bocavirus (BoV), and coronavirus (CoV). From the 16 studies included, there was strong evidence of possible causal attribution for RSV (OR, 8.5 [95% CI, 3.9-18.5]; AFE, 88%), Flu (OR, 8.3 [95% CI, 4.4-15.9]; AFE, 88%), PIV (OR, not available; AFE, approximately 100%), HMPV (OR, 9.8 [95% CI, 2.3-41.0]; AFE, 90%), AdV (OR, not available; AFE, approximately 100%), RV (OR, 7.1 [95% CI, 3.7-13.6]; AFE, 86%) and CoV (OR, 2.8 [95% CI, 2.0-4.1]; AFE, 65%) in older adults presenting with ARI, compared with those without respiratory symptoms (ie, asymptomatic individuals) or healthy older adults. However, there was no significant difference in the detection of BoV in cases and controls. This review supports RSV, Flu, PIV, HMPV, AdV, RV, and CoV as important causes of ARI in older adults and provides quantitative estimates of the absolute proportion of virus-associated ARI cases to which a viral cause can be attributed. Disease burden estimates should take into account the appropriate AFE estimates (for older adults) that we report

Integrating personality research and animal contest theory: aggressiveness in the green swordtail <i>Xiphophorus helleri</i>

&lt;p&gt;Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within-and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, &lt;i&gt;Xiphophorus helleri&lt;/i&gt;, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e. g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness.&lt;/p&gt

Microplastics disrupt hermit crab shell selection

Microplastics (plastics < 5 mm) are a potential threat to marine biodiversity. However, the effects of microplastic pollution on animal behaviour and cognition are poorly understood. We used shell selection in common European hermit crabs (Pagurus bernhardus) as a model to test whether microplastic exposure impacts the essential survival behaviours of contacting, investigating and entering an optimal shell. We kept 64 female hermit crabs in tanks containing either polyethylene spheres (n = 35) or no plastic (n = 29) for 5 days. We then transferred subjects into suboptimal shells and placed them in an observation tank with an optimal alternative shell. Plastic-exposed hermit crabs showed impaired shell selection: they were less likely than controls to contact optimal shells or enter them. They also took longer to contact and enter the optimal shell. Plastic exposure did not affect time spent investigating the optimal shell. These results indicate that microplastics impair cognition (information-gathering and processing), disrupting an essential survival behaviour in hermit crabs

An Assessment of Students’ and Health Professional’ Abilities to Site Stomas Accurately on Human Cadavers

Peer reviewedPublisher PD