U.S. public and private venture capital markets, 1998-2001: A fundamental information analysis

Systematic analysis of U.S. capital markets reveals important empirical facts that analytical modeling or empirical research seeking to explain the 1998-2001 movements needs to recognize. There is no single "bubble point" at which U.S. capital markets had an epiphany that valuations required a sharp downward re-evaluation. Rather, different sectors had different points after which ex post sustained declines occurred. For the NASDAQ/NYSE/AMEX public capital markets, the sustained ex post declines occurred starting in March 2000 for the computer software industry and in September 2000 for the computer hardware industry. Private venture capital investment in new ventures peaked in the March 2000 quarter for software and in the September 2000 quarter for hardware and communications. Four sectors exhibiting extreme price movements are identified - computer hardware, computer software, telecommunications, and biotech/pharmaceuticals. These sectors had observable characteristics prior to 1998 that implied higher risk - they had higher relative risk (CAPM beta), higher standard deviation of security returns, more extreme revenue growth increases (decreases) in the upper (lower) tails, and a higher propensity for negative net income. During the 1998-2001 period, companies in these sectors had abnormally high revenue growth rates. An Internet sample of companies exhibits even higher abnormal revenue growth rates relative to either prior periods or other companies in the 1998-2001 period. The large relative increases and decreases in the market capitalization of U.S. capital markets in 1998-2001 may well have more grounding in risk-reward asset pricing theory than many commentators have recognized.capital markets; stock prices; Internet stocks; stock market bubble;

Mask formulas for cograssmannian Kazhdan-Lusztig polynomials

We give two contructions of sets of masks on cograssmannian permutations that can be used in Deodhar's formula for Kazhdan-Lusztig basis elements of the Iwahori-Hecke algebra. The constructions are respectively based on a formula of Lascoux-Schutzenberger and its geometric interpretation by Zelevinsky. The first construction relies on a basis of the Hecke algebra constructed from principal lower order ideals in Bruhat order and a translation of this basis into sets of masks. The second construction relies on an interpretation of masks as cells of the Bott-Samelson resolution. These constructions give distinct answers to a question of Deodhar.Comment: 43 page

Bound Chains of Tilted Dipoles in Layered Systems

Ultracold polar molecules in multilayered systems have been experimentally realized very recently. While experiments study these systems almost exclusively through their chemical reactivity, the outlook for creating and manipulating exotic few- and many-body physics in dipolar systems is fascinating. Here we concentrate on few-body states in a multilayered setup. We exploit the geometry of the interlayer potential to calculate the two- and three-body chains with one molecule in each layer. The focus is on dipoles that are aligned at some angle with respect to the layer planes by means of an external eletric field. The binding energy and the spatial structure of the bound states are studied in several different ways using analytical approaches. The results are compared to stochastic variational calculations and very good agreement is found. We conclude that approximations based on harmonic oscillator potentials are accurate even for tilted dipoles when the geometry of the potential landscape is taken into account.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. Submitted to Few-body Systems special issue on Critical Stability, revised versio

Adaptations in the Temporalis Muscles of Rabbits after Masseter Muscle Removal

Masseter muscles were surgically removed in six young female rabbits so that we could study adaptations of the superficial temporalis muscles (ST) to increased functional requirements. Eight weeks following surgery, we used morphological measurements, histochemistry, contractile properties in situ, and occlusal force in vivo to compare the muscles in the experimental animals and six control rabbits. Analysis of the results demonstrated a decrease in fatigability of ST after masseter myectomy. Incisal occlusal force decreased by 65% during the first two weeks, and no recovery was observed during the following six weeks. At eight weeks post-surgery, the mass, twitch tensions, and tetanic tensions of ST were not significantly different from those of the controls. An increase in the percent of the cross-sectional area composed of fast fatigue-resistant fibers, a slower time-to-peak twitch tension, and a decrease in fatigability suggest an increase in oxidative metabolism. Analysis of these results suggests that muscles used for highly repetitious activities with submaximal loadings adapt to increased functional requirements by increasing fatigue-resistant properties.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68261/2/10.1177_00220345860650110201.pd

Transcript of The Dory Derby Accident

This story is an excerpt from a longer interview that was collected as part of the Launching through the Surf: The Dory Fleet of Pacific City project. In this story, Don Grotjohn recounts an accident that occurred during a Dory Derby competition

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder

Shadowing in photo-production : role of in-medium hadrons

We study the effects of in-medium hadronic properties on shadowing in photon-nucleus interactions in Glauber model as well as in the multiple scattering approach. A reasonable agreement with the experimental data is obtained in a scenario of downward spectral shift of the hadrons. Shadowing is found to be insensitive to the broadening of the spectral functions. An impact parameter dependent analysis of shadowing might shed more light on the role of in-medium properties of hadrons.Comment: Title modified; version to appear in PRC, Rapid Communication

Density Waves in Layered Systems with Fermionic Polar Molecules

A layered system of two-dimensional planes containing fermionic polar molecules can potentially realize a number of exotic quantum many-body states. Among the predictions, are density-wave instabilities driven by the anisotropic part of the dipole-dipole interaction in a single layer. However, in typical multilayer setups it is reasonable to expect that the onset and properties of a density-wave are modified by adjacent layers. Here we show that this is indeed the case. For multiple layers the critical strength for the density-wave instability decreases with the number of layers. The effect depends on density and is more pronounced in the low density regime. The lowest solution of the instability corresponds to the density waves in the different layers being in-phase, whereas higher solutions have one or several adjancet layers that are out of phase. The parameter regime needed to explore this instability is within reach of current experiments.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Final version in EPJD, EuroQUAM special issue "Cold Quantum Matter - Achievements and Prospects

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. In press with Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, N

Sustained ventricular arrhythmias among patients with acute coronary syndromes with no ST-segment elevation: incidence, predictors, and outcomes

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of ventricular arrhythmias among patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes is unknown. We studied the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of sustained ventricular arrhythmias in 4 large randomized trials of such patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled the datasets of the Global Use of Streptokinase and tPA for Occluded Arteries (GUSTO)-IIb, Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin Therapy (PURSUIT), Platelet IIb/IIIa Antagonism for the Reduction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Events in a Global Organization Network (PARAGON)-A, and PARAGON-B trials (n=26 416). We identified independent predictors of ventricular fibrillation (VF) and ventricular tachycardia (VT) and compared the 30-day and 6-month mortality rates of patients who did (n=552) and did not (n=25 864) develop these arrhythmias during the index hospitalization. Independent predictors of in-hospital VF included prior hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, prior myocardial infarction, and ST-segment changes at presentation. Except for hypertension, these variables also independently predicted in-hospital VT. In Cox proportional-hazards modeling, in-hospital VF and VT were independently associated with 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 23.2 [95% CI, 18.1 to 29.8] for VF and HR, 7.6 [95% CI, 5.5 to 10.4] for VT) and 6-month mortality (HR, 14.8 [95% CI, 12.1 to 18.3] for VF and HR, 5.0 [95% CI, 3.8 to 6.5] for VT). These differences remained significant after excluding patients with heart failure or cardiogenic shock and those who died <24 hours after enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the use of effective therapies for non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes, ventricular arrhythmias in this setting are associated with increased 30-day and 6-month mortality. More effective therapies are needed to improve the survival of patients with these arrhythmias