Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Leap Motion Controller–based training for upper extremity rehabilitation in children and adolescents with physical disabilities: A randomized controlled trial

Study Design: Randomized controlled trial. Introduction: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), cerebral palsy (CP), and brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) are the most common disorders that cause upper extremity impairments in children and adolescents. Leap Motion Controller–based training (LMCBT) is a novel therapeutic method for upper extremity rehabilitation. Purpose of the Study: The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential efficacy of an 8-week LMCBT program set as an upper extremity rehabilitation program by comparing conventional rehabilitation program in children and adolescents with physical disabilities such as JIA, CP, and BPBI. Methods: A randomized control trial which included children and adolescents of different disabilities (JIA, CP, BPBI) were grouped according to their diagnosis. All patients were randomized into 2 groups namely LMCBT (group I) and conventional treatment (group II) for the treatment (3 days/8 weeks). Duruoz Hand Index and Jebson Taylor Hand Function Test were used as primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes included the nine-hole peg test, Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire, and assessments of grip and pinch strength using a dynamometer. Results: One hundred three patients were included in the study, and 92 of them completed the treatment. After treatment, significant differences were found in Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire, Duruoz Hand Index, Jebson Taylor Hand Function Test, nine-hole peg test, and grip and pinch strength scores in almost all groups (effect size [ES] = 0.10 to -0.77 for group I and 0.09 to -0.70 for group II in CP; ES = 0.31 to 2.65 for the group I and 0.12 to 1.66 for group II in JIA; and ES = 0 to -0.44 for group I and 0.08 to -0.62 for group II in BPBI) (P .05). Conclusions: This study has quantitatively shown that LMCBT should be used as an effective alternative treatment option in children and adolescents with physical disabilities.Research and Development: 215S191 215S19

Cross-cultural adaptation, validity and reliability of Turkish version of Oxford Ankle Foot Questionnaire for children with congenital talipes equinovarus & nbsp

Background: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Oxford Ankle Foot Questionnaire (OxAFQ) to provide cultural adaptation. Methods: This study involved translation, back translation, and cross-cultural adaptation. Forty-nine patients with congenital talipes equinovarus were evaluated using the Turkish version of OxAFQ. Turkish version of the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) was used as a gold standard to validate the Turkish version of the OxAFQ. The validation was assessed with Spearman correlation analysis by using CHAQ. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed with Cronbach alpha (internal consistency) and exploratory factor analysis. Results: High validity was found between OxAFQ and CHAQ (r =-0.422-0.292) (p < 0.01). Reliability analysis showed that OxAFQ had a high level of Cronbach alpha (alpha = 0.88-0.96) and internal consistency (ICC = 0.90-0.96). Conclusion: The Turkish version of OxAFQ is a valid, reliable and useful quality of life questionnaire in patients with congenital talipes equinovarus and it is proper for use by health professionals and researchers