Temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States: Quantifying the responses to anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Changes in extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, and precipitation frequency can have adverse impacts on human health, air quality, agricultural productivity, and water resources. Using the aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) "single forcing" simulations (3 ensemble members each) from the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, we investigate aerosol- versus greenhouse gas-induced changes in high temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States. We identify changes in these events from 1860 to 2005 and the associated large-scale dynamical conditions. Small changes in these extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the individual, opposite-signed effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, aerosols lead to lower extreme high temperatures and fewer warm spells over the western US (-2.1 K regional average; -20 days/year) and over the central and northeast US (-1.5 K; -12 days/year). In GHG, a similar but opposite-signed response pattern occurs (+2.7 K and +14 days/year over the western US; +2.5 K and +10 days/year in the central and northeast US). The similar spatial response patterns in AER versus GHG suggest a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the regional distribution of the forcing agent. The influence of both greenhouse gases and aerosols on extreme high temperature is weakest in the southeast US, collocated with the observed "warming hole". No statistically significant change occurs in AER, and a warming of only +1.8 K occurs in GHG. Warming in this region continues to be muted over the 21st century under the RCP 8.5 scenario, with increases in extreme temperatures more than 1 K smaller than elsewhere. Aerosols induce decreases in the number of days per year with at least 10mm of precipitation (R10mm) over the eastern US in summer and winter and over the southern US in spring of roughly 1 day/year. In contrast, greenhouse gases induce increases in R10mm over the eastern US in winter (+0.8 days/year), the northern and central US during spring (+1 day/year), and the southeast US during summer (+0.5 days/year), but decreases over the northeast US in summer (-0.2 days/year). In RCP 8.5, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate

Local and Remote Mean and Extreme Temperature Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistryclimate models: NOAA GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to -0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India, significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m(exp -2))(exp -1) depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by local rather than remote aerosol forcing

Pumping Iron in the Preoperative Period: Is It Beneficial in Reducing Blood Transfusions?

Carla Patel pictured.https://openworks.mdanderson.org/aprn-week-23/1002/thumbnail.jp

The Role of PKR/eIF2α Signaling Pathway in Prognosis of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

In this study, we investigated whether PKR protein expression is correlated with mRNA levels and also evaluated molecular biomarkers that are associated with PKR, such as phosphorylated PKR (p-PKR) and phosphorylated eIF2α (p-eIF2α).We determined the levels of PKR protein expression and mRNA in 36 fresh primary lung tumor tissues by using Western blot analysis and real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR), respectively. We used tissue microarrays for immunohistochemical evaluation of the expression of p-PKR and p-eIF2α proteins. We demonstrated that PKR mRNA levels are significantly correlated with PKR protein levels (Spearman's rho = 0.55, p<0.001), suggesting that PKR protein levels in tumor samples are regulated by PKR mRNA. We also observed that the patients with high p-PKR or p-eIF2α expression had a significantly longer median survival than those with little or no p-PKR or p-eIF2α expression (p = 0.03 and p = 0.032, respectively). We further evaluated the prognostic effect of combined expression of p-PKR plus PKR and p-eIF2α plus PKR and found that both combinations were strong independent prognostic markers for overall patient survival on stage I and all stage patients.Our findings suggest that PKR protein expression may controlled by transcription level. Combined expression levels of PKR and p-PKR or p-eIF2α can be new markers for predicting the prognosis of patients with NSCLC

Histopathologic Response Criteria Predict Survival of Patients with Resected Lung Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

Introduction:We evaluated the ability of histopathologic response criteria to predict overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with or without neoadjuvant chemotherapy.Methods:Tissue specimens from 358 patients with NSCLC were evaluated by pathologists blinded to the patient treatment and outcome. The surgical specimens were reviewed for various histopathologic features in the tumor including percentage of residual viable tumor cells, necrosis, and fibrosis. The relationship between the histopathologic findings and OS was assessed.Results:The percentage of residual viable tumor cells and surgical pathologic stage were associated with OS and DFS in 192 patients with NSCLC receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy in multivariate analysis (p = 0.005 and p = 0.01, respectively). There was no association of OS or DFS with percentage of viable tumor cells in 166 patients with NSCLC who did not receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.31 and p = 0.45, respectively). Long-term OS and DFS were significantly prolonged in patients who had ⩽10% viable tumor compared with patients with >10% viable tumor cells (5 years OS, 85% versus 40%, p < 0.0001 and 5 years DFS, 78% versus 35%, p < 0.001).Conclusion:The percentages of residual viable tumor cells predict OS and DFS in patients with resected NSCLC after neoadjuvant chemotherapy even when controlled for pathologic stage. Histopathologic assessment of resected specimens after neoadjuvant chemotherapy could potentially have a role in addition to pathologic stage in assessing prognosis, chemotherapy response, and the need for additional adjuvant therapies

Endoscopic ultrasonography-identified celiac adenopathy remains a poor prognostic factor despite preoperative chemoradiotherapy in esophageal adenocarcinoma

ObjectiveWe reviewed our experience with preoperative chemoradiotherapy in patients with adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus and pretreatment endoscopic ultrasonography-identified celiac adenopathy.MethodsOne hundred eighty-six patients with adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus were staged with endoscopic ultrasonography before treatment from 1997 through 2004. All patients were treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT group) and surgical intervention or induction chemotherapy followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy (C→CRT group) and surgical intervention. Survival analysis (excluding operative mortality) evaluated various pretreatment factors.ResultsMultivariable Cox regression analysis showed that pretreatment endoscopic ultrasonography-identified celiac adenopathy was a significant predictor of decreased long-term survival (P = .03). Median and 3-year survivals were 49 months and 54% in the endoscopic ultrasonography-identified cN0 M0 group (n = 65), 45 months and 56% in the endoscopic ultrasonography-identified cN1 M0 group (n = 96), and 19 months and 12% in the endoscopic ultrasonography-identified celiac adenopathy (cM1a) group (n = 18; P = .03). Increased systemic relapse was noted in the endoscopic ultrasonography-identified cM1a group (44% vs 22%, P = .07). The only factor associated with increased survival in the endoscopic ultrasonography-identified cM1a group (27 vs 15 months, P = .02) was the addition of induction chemotherapy before concurrent chemoradiotherapy and surgical intervention.ConclusionsEndoscopic ultrasonography-identified celiac adenopathy in patients with adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus conveys a poor prognosis despite preoperative chemoradiotherapy. These patients should be stratified in future multimodality trials. The investigation of induction chemotherapy before concurrent chemoradiotherapy might be warranted in this high-risk group of patients

Mid-21st century ozone air quality and health burden in China under emissions scenarios and climate change

Despite modest emissions reductions of air pollutants in recent years, China still suffers from poor air quality, and the outlook for future air quality in China is uncertain. We explore the impact of two disparate 2050 emissions scenarios relative to 2015 in the context of a changing climate with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 (GFDL-AM3) chemistry-climate model. We impose the same near-term climate change for both emission scenarios by setting global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) to the average over 2010–2019 and 2046–2055, respectively, from a three-member ensemble of GFDL coupled climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. By the 2050s, annual mean surface ozone increases throughout China by up to 8 ppbv from climate change alone (estimated by holding air pollutants at 2015 levels while setting SIC and SST to 2050 conditions in the model) and by 8–12 ppbv in a scenario in which emissions of ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) increase by ~10%. In a scenario in which NO x and anthropogenic VOC emissions decline by 60%, annual mean surface ozone over China decreases by 16–20 ppbv in the 2050s relative to the 2010s. The ozone increase from climate change alone results in an additional 62 000 premature deaths in China as compared to 330 000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s under a strong emissions mitigation scenario. In springtime over Southwestern China in the 2050s, the model projects 9–12 ppbv enhancements to surface ozone from the stratosphere (diagnosed with a model tracer) and from international anthropogenic emissions (diagnosed by differencing AM3 simulations with the same emissions within China but higher versus lower emissions in the rest of the world). Our findings highlight the effectiveness of emissions controls in reducing the health burden in China due to air pollution, and also the potential for climate change and rising global emissions to offset, at least partially, some of the ozone decreases attained with regional emission reductions in China

Understanding recent tropospheric ozone trends in the context of large internal variability: a new perspective from chemistry-climate model ensembles

Observational records of meteorological and chemical variables are imprinted by an unknown combination of anthropogenic activity, natural forcings, and internal variability. With a 15-member initial-condition ensemble generated from the CESM2-WACCM6 chemistry-climate model for 1950&ndash;2014, we extract signals of anthropogenic ('forced') change from the noise of internally arising climate variability on observed tropospheric ozone trends. Positive trends in free tropospheric ozone measured at long-term surface observatories, by commercial aircraft, and retrieved from satellite instruments generally fall within the ensemble range. CESM2-WACCM6 tropospheric ozone trends are also bracketed by those in a larger ensemble constructed from five additional chemistry-climate models. Comparison of the multi-model ensemble with observed tropospheric column ozone trends in the northern tropics implies an underestimate in regional precursor emission growth over recent decades. Positive tropospheric ozone trends clearly emerge from 1950 to 2014, exceeding 0.2 DU yr&minus;1 at 20&ndash;40 N in all CESM2-WACCM6 ensemble members. Tropospheric ozone observations are often only available for recent decades, and we show that even a two-decade record length is insufficient to eliminate the role of internal variability, which can produce regional tropospheric ozone trends oppositely signed from ensemble mean (forced) changes. By identifying regions and seasons with strong anthropogenic change signals relative to internal variability, initial-condition ensembles can guide future observing systems seeking to detect anthropogenic change. For example, analysis of the CESM2-WACCM6 ensemble reveals year-round upper tropospheric ozone increases from 1995 to 2014, largest at 30 S&ndash;40 N during boreal summer. Lower tropospheric ozone increases most strongly in the winter hemisphere, and internal variability leads to trends of opposite sign (ensemble overlaps zero) north of 40 N during boreal summer. This decoupling of ozone trends in the upper and lower troposphere suggests a growing prominence for tropospheric ozone as a greenhouse gas despite regional efforts to abate warm season ground-level ozone. &nbsp;</p

Heterogeneity and chemical reactivity of the remote troposphere defined by aircraft measurements

The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a photochemical climatology of air parcels based on in situ measurements with the NASA DC-8 aircraft along objectively planned profiling transects through the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In this paper we present and analyze a data set of 10 s (2 km) merged and gap-filled observations of the key reactive species driving the chemical budgets of O3 and CH4 (O3, CH4, CO, H2O, HCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, C2H6, higher alkanes, alkenes, aromatics, NOx, HNO3, HNO4, peroxyacetyl nitrate, other organic nitrates), consisting of 146,494 distinct air parcels from ATom deployments 1 through 4. Six models calculated the O3 and CH4 photochemical tendencies from this modeling data stream for ATom 1. We find that 80 %&ndash;90 % of the total reactivity lies in the top 50 % of the parcels; and 25 %&ndash;35 %, in the top 10 %, supporting previous model-only studies that tropospheric chemistry is driven by a fraction of all the air. In other words, accurate simulation of the least reactive 50 % of the troposphere is unimportant for global budgets. Surprisingly, the probability densities of species and reactivities averaged on a model scale (100 km) differ only slightly from the 2 km ATom data, indicating that much of the heterogeneity in tropospheric chemistry can be captured with current global chemistry models. Comparing the ATom reactivities over the tropical oceans with climatological statistics from six global chemistry models, we find generally good agreement with the reactivity rates for O3 and CH4. In the Pacific but not Atlantic, however, models distinctly underestimate O3 production below 2 km, and this can be traced lower NOX levels than observed. Attaching photochemical reactivities to measurements of chemical species allows for a richer, yet more constrained-to-what-matters, set of metrics for model evaluation.</p

Aberrant Expression of Proteins Involved in Signal Transduction and DNA Repair Pathways in Lung Cancer and Their Association with Clinical Parameters

Because cell signaling and cell metabolic pathways are executed through proteins, protein signatures in primary tumors are useful for identifying key nodes in signaling networks whose alteration is associated with malignancy and/or clinical outcomes. This study aimed to determine protein signatures in primary lung cancer tissues.We analyzed 126 proteins and/or protein phosphorylation sites in case-matched normal and tumor samples from 101 lung cancer patients with reverse-phase protein array (RPPA) assay. The results showed that 18 molecules were significantly different (p<0.05) by at least 30% between normal and tumor tissues. Most of those molecules play roles in cell proliferation, DNA repair, signal transduction and lipid metabolism, or function as cell surface/matrix proteins. We also validated RPPA results by Western blot and/or immunohistochemical analyses for some of those molecules. Statistical analyses showed that Ku80 levels were significantly higher in tumors of nonsmokers than in those of smokers. Cyclin B1 levels were significantly overexpressed in poorly differentiated tumors while Cox2 levels were significantly overexpressed in neuroendocrinal tumors. A high level of Stat5 is associated with favorable survival outcome for patients treated with surgery.Our results revealed that some molecules involved in DNA damage/repair, signal transductions, lipid metabolism, and cell proliferation were drastically aberrant in lung cancer tissues, and Stat5 may serve a molecular marker for prognosis of lung cancers