Environmental gradients and prey availability relative to glacial features in Kittlitz's murrelet foraging habitat

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2009"The goal of this study was to characterize Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) foraging habitat relative to prey availability and oceanography in Kenai Fjords National Park, a glacial-marine system. I conducted oceanographic, hydroacoustic, trawl, beach seine, and marine bird surveys monthly from June-August in 2007 and 2008. High sediment load from glacial river runoff shaped the marine ecosystem, and this appeared critically important to Kittlitz's murrelets at sea. Submerged moraines influenced inner fjord habitat that was characterized by cool, fresh, stratified, and silt-laden waters. This silty glacial runoff limited light availability to chlorophyll near tidewater glaciers, but zooplankton abundance was enhanced in the surface waters, perhaps due to the absence of a photic cue for vertical migration. Zooplankton community structure was influenced by glacial features and varied along an increasing temperature gradient over the summer. Acoustic measurements suggested that low density aggregations of fish and zooplankton were available in the surface waters near glacial river outflows where murrelets typically forage. Dense fish aggregations moved into the fjords by August. Kittlitz's murrelets were more likely to occur in areas with higher acoustic biomass near glaciers, making these birds more susceptible to climate change than the congeneric marbled murrelet (B. marmoratus), which was most associated with shallow, ice-free areas"--Leaf iiiU.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey Natural Resource Protection Progra

Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea

Introduction: Seabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. Methods: Using a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. Results: The best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). Discussion: Our results indicated that pelagic shearwaters (Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy

The influence of glaciers on coastal marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2016Glacier runoff (i.e., meltwater and rainwater discharged at the glacier terminus) provides about half of the freshwater discharge into coastal margins of the Gulf of Alaska, where contemporary glacier melting rates are among the highest in the world. Roughly 410 billion metric tons of glacier runoff enter the Gulf of Alaska each year. With freshwater discharge volumes of that magnitude, I hypothesized that glacier runoff has both direct and indirect effects on the receiving coastal marine ecosystems that support rich food webs, abundant and diverse marine communities, commercial fisheries and tourism industries. To examine the influence of glacier runoff on coastal marine ecosystems, I focused on three questions: 1) How does the marine food web respond to physical and biological gradients induced by glacier runoff? 2) What is the contribution of riverine organic matter (OM) and ancient carbon resources in glacier runoff to marine food webs from plankton to seabirds? and 3) How does the influence of glaciers on coastal marine ecosystems differ at small to large spatial and temporal scales? I measured physical, chemical and biological indices within four fjord systems along the eastern Gulf of Alaska coast. In chapter one I used geostatistics as well as parametric and non-parametric models to demonstrate a strong influence of glacier runoff on ocean conditions and coastal food webs across all the fjord systems. In chapter two I used isotopes (δ2H, δ13C, δ15N, and Δ14C) to trace riverine OM and ancient carbon resources into the marine food web. This work included the development of a novel multi-trophic level 3-isotope Bayesian mixing model to estimate the proportion of allochthonous resources in animal tissues. Mean estimates from 14 species groups spanning copepods to seabirds ranged from 12 – 45 % riverine OM source assimilation in coastal fjords, but ancient carbon use by marine food webs was low. In the third chapter I synthesized information on the scale-dependent influence of glaciers on lower-trophic level productivity, predator-prey interactions and ways that humans may be affected by anticipated changes in glacier coverage. This contemporary understanding of glacier influence on coastal ecosystems aligns with paleoenvironmental evidence suggesting that over geological time scales glaciers have and will continue to shape marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska.Introduction -- Chapter 1: Glacier runoff strongly influences food webs in Gulf of Alaska fjords -- Chapter 2. Tracing biogeochemical subsidies from glacier runoff into Alaska coastal marine food webs -- Chapter 3. Scale-dependent influence of glaciers on marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska -- Conclusion

Table_1_Climate change and pulse migration: intermittent Chugach Inuit occupation of glacial fiords on the Kenai Coast, Alaska.docx

For millennia, Inuit peoples of the Arctic and Subarctic have been challenged by the impacts of climate change on the abundance of key subsistence species. Responses to climate-induced declines in animal populations included switching to alternative food sources and/or migrating to regions of greater availability. We examine these dynamics for the Chugach Inuit (Sugpiat) people of southern coastal Alaska by synthesizing a large body of evidence from archeological sites, including radiocarbon dates and archaeofaunal assemblages, and by applying contemporary knowledge of glaciomarine ecosystems, spatial patterns of resource richness, and ocean-climate induced regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska. We hypothesize that Chugach groups migrated from Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula during periods of low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to harvest harbor seals, which were seasonally aggregated near tidewater glaciers during pupping season, as well as piscivorous seabirds, Pacific cod, and other species that thrive under cool ocean conditions. During warming phases, the Chugach returned to Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to fish for salmon and other species that abound during higher SSTs. Drivers of this coupled human-natural system of repeated (pulse) migration include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific that has been shown to generate step-like regime shifts in the marine food web; and coastal glaciers that structure the functioning of fiord ecosystems and support high levels of biological productivity. The culturally-constructed Chugach niche in the glaciomarine habitat of the Gulf of Alaska was based on intergenerationally transmitted ecological knowledge that enabled a resilient, mobile response to climate and resource variation.</p

Kittlitz’s Murrelet Seasonal Distribution and Post-breeding Migration from the Gulf of Alaska to the Arctic Ocean

Kittlitz’s Murrelets (Brachyramphus brevirostris) nest during summer in glaciated or recently deglaciated (post-Wisconsin) landscapes. They forage in adjacent marine waters, especially those influenced by glacial meltwater. Little is known of their movements and distribution outside the breeding season. To identify post-breeding migrations of murrelets, we attached satellite transmitters to birds (n = 47) captured at sea in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands during May – July 2009 – 15 and tracked 27 birds that migrated from capture areas. Post-breeding murrelets migrated toward the Bering Sea, with short periods of movement (median 2 d) separated by short stopovers (median 1 d). Travel speeds averaged 79.4 km d-1 (83.5 SD, 449.1 maximum). Five Kittlitz’s Murrelets tagged in Prince William Sound in May migrated to the Bering Sea by August and four continued north to the Arctic Ocean, logging 2500 – 4000 km of travel. Many birds spent 2‒3 weeks with little movement along coasts of the Alaska Peninsula or eastern Bering Sea during late August through September, also the pre-basic molt period. Ship-based surveys, many of which were conducted concurrently with our telemetry studies, confirmed that substantial numbers of Kittlitz’s Murrelets migrate into the Arctic Ocean during autumn. They also revealed that some birds spend winter and spring in the Bering Sea in association with ice-edge, polynya, or marginal ice zone habitats before returning to summer breeding grounds. We conclude that this species is best characterized as a sub-Arctic and Arctic species, which has implications for future risk assessments and threat mitigation.Les guillemots de Kittlitz (Brachyramphus brevirostris) nichent pendant l’été dans des lieux englacés ou récemment déglacés (post-Wisconsinien). Ils se nourrissent dans les eaux de mer adjacentes, surtout celles influencées par l’eau de fonte glaciaire. On en sait peu sur leurs mouvements et leur répartition en dehors de la saison de reproduction. Afin de déterminer les migrations des guillemots après la reproduction, nous avons fixé des émetteurs satellitaires à des oiseaux(n = 47) capturés en mer dans le golfe d’Alaska et sur les îles Aléoutiennes, de mai à juillet 2009 à 2015, ce qui nous a permis de suivre 27 oiseaux qui ont migré depuis l’endroit où ils ont été capturés. Après la reproduction, les guillemots ont migré vers la mer de Béring, avec de courtes périodes de mouvement (médiane de 2 d) parsemées de brèves escales (médiane de 1 d). Leurs vitesses de déplacement ont atteint 79,4 km d-1 en moyenne (écart type de 83,5 et maximum de 449,1). Cinq guillemots de Kittlitz étiquetés au golfe du Prince William en mai ont migré vers la mer de Béring avant le mois d’août, et quatre ont poursuivi leur route vers le nord, jusqu’à l’océan Arctique, ce qui s’est traduit par des déplacements de 2 500 à 4 000 km. De nombreux oiseaux ont passé de deux à trois semaines à se déplacer très peu sur les côtes de la péninsule d’Alaska ou de l’est de la mer de Béring de la fin d’août jusqu’en septembre, ce qui correspond également à la période de mue de prébase. Des dénombrements effectués par bateau, dont grand nombre ont été réalisés en même temps que nos études télémétriques, ont permis de confirmer qu’un nombre important de guillemots de Kittlitz migrent dans l’océan Arctique à l’automne. Ils ont également permis de révéler que les oiseaux passent l’hiver et le printemps dans la mer de Béring, plus précisément dans les habitats de lisières de glace, de polynie ou de zones de marge glaciaire avant de regagner leurs lieux de reproduction d’été. Nous concluons que cette espèce est mieux caractérisée comme espèce subarctique ou espèce arctique, ce qui a des incidences sur l’atténuation des menaces et sur les évaluations des risques futures

DataSheet_1_Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea.docx

IntroductionSeabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type.MethodsUsing a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. ResultsThe best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters).DiscussionOur results indicated that pelagic shearwaters (Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy. </p

Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016.

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Three-quarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events co-occurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017

Best practices for assessing forage fish fisheries-seabird resource competition

Worldwide, in recent years capture fisheries targeting lower-trophic level forage fish and euphausiid crustaceans have been substantial (∼20 million metric tons [MT] annually). Landings of forage species are projected to increase in the future, and this harvest may affect marine ecosystems and predator-prey interactions by removal or redistribution of biomass central to pelagic food webs. In particular, fisheries targeting forage fish and euphausiids may be in competition with seabirds, likely the most sensitive of marine vertebrates given limitations in their foraging abilities (ambit and gape size) and high metabolic rate, for food resources. Lately, apparent competition between fisheries and seabirds has led to numerous high-profile conflicts over interpretations, as well as the approaches that could and should be used to assess the magnitude and consequences of fisheries-seabird resource competition. In this paper, we review the methods used to date to study fisheries competition with seabirds, and present “best practices” for future resource competition assessments. Documenting current fisheries competition with seabirds generally involves addressing two major issues: 1) are fisheries causing localized prey depletion that is sufficient to affect the birds? (i.e., are fisheries limiting food resources?), and 2) how are fisheries-induced changes to forage stocks affecting seabird populations given the associated functional or numerical response relationships? Previous studies have been hampered by mismatches in the scale of fisheries, fish, and seabird data, and a lack of causal understanding due to confounding by climatic and other ecosystem factors (e.g., removal of predatory fish). Best practices for fisheries-seabird competition research should include i) clear articulation of hypotheses, ii) data collection (or summation) of fisheries, fish, and seabirds on matched spatio-temporal scales, and iii) integration of observational and experimental (including numerical simulation) approaches to establish connections and causality between fisheries and seabirds. As no single technique can provide all the answers to this vexing issue, an integrated approach is most promising to obtain robust scientific results and in turn the sustainability of forage fish fisheries from an ecosystem perspective