Enforcement Evasion Highlights Need for Better Satellite‐Based Forest Governance

Our recent article, “Are Brazil’s Deforesters Avoiding Detection?” demonstrated that focusing illegal deforestation enforcement on the subset of forest monitored by the flagship PRODES system has caused PRODES to capture a declining share of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Deforesters may be purposively seeking out forests not monitored for enforcement. Addressing the problem would help Brazil maintain a cutting‐edge forest governance model worthy of transfer to other nations. Two commentaries questioned our decision to investigate solely PRODES and not additional government monitoring systems. We focused on PRODES because it is the most salient deforestation monitoring system. Other key deforestation monitoring systems are all either limited to the same monitoring footprint as PRODES, not used for enforcement, or are rarely used for measuring forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon. We do agree with the commentaries that Brazil’s new satellite monitoring protocol for greenhouse gas emissions estimation is critical progress of the type we were advocating in our original article.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138285/1/conl12379_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138285/2/conl12379.pd

Roads & SDGs, tradeoffs and synergies: learning from Brazil's Amazon in distinguishing frontiers

To inform the search for SDG synergies in infrastructure provision, and to reduce SDG tradeoffs, the authors show that road impacts on Brazilian Amazon forests have varied significantly across settings. Forest loss varied predictably with prior development – both prior roads and prior deforestation – and in a spatial pattern suggesting a synergy between forests and urban growth in such frontiers. Examining multiple roads investments, the authors estimate impact for settings of high, medium and low prior roads and deforestation. Census-tract observations are numerous for each setting and reveal a pattern, not consistent with endogeneity, that confirms our predictions for this kind of frontier. Impacts are: low after relatively high prior development; larger for medium prior development, at the forest margin; then low again for low prior development. For the latter setting, the authors note that in such isolated areas, interactions with conservation policies influence forest impacts over time. These Amazonian results suggest 'SDG strategic' locations of infrastructure, an idea they suggest for other frontiers while highlighting differences in those frontiers and their SDG opportunities

Mapping and characterizing social-ecological land systems of South America

Humans place strong pressure on land and have modified around 75% of Earth’s terrestrial surface. In this context, ecoregions and biomes, merely defined on the basis of their biophysical features, are incomplete characterizations of the territory. Land system science requires classification schemes that incorporate both social and biophysical dimensions. In this study, we generated spatially explicit social-ecological land system (SELS) typologies for South America with a hybrid methodology that combined data-driven spatial analysis with a knowledge-based evaluation by an interdisciplinary group of regional specialists. Our approach embraced a holistic consideration of the social-ecological land systems, gathering a dataset of 26 variables spanning across 7 dimensions: physical, biological, land cover, economic, demographic, political, and cultural. We identified 13 SELS nested in 5 larger social-ecological regions (SER). Each SELS was discussed and described by specific groups of specialists. Although 4 environmental and 1 socioeconomic variable explained most of the distribution of the coarse SER classification, a diversity of 15 other variables were shown to be essential for defining several SELS, highlighting specific features that differentiate them. The SELS spatial classification presented is a systematic and operative characterization of South American social-ecological land systems. We propose its use can contribute as a reference framework for a wide range of applications such as analyzing observations within larger contexts, designing system-specific solutions for sustainable development, and structuring hypothesis testing and comparisons across space. Similar efforts could be done elsewhere in the world

PLOSOne Spatial Probit Data and script

Dataset used in PLOSOne manuscript and Matlab script that runs one one the spatial probit models with regional dependencies

What Drives Downsizing of Protected Areas?: A Case Study of Amazon National Park

Researchers, NGOs, and the Brazilin government have paid significant attention to the preservation of Brazil’s natural landscapes. As a result, more than 25 million ha have been added to the system of protected areas in the region. However, the size and legal status of many protected areas throughout the Brazilian Amazon are being eroded. Understanding the drivers and outcomes of these reductions to protected areas is essential for the long-term management and preservation of ecosystem services. The objective of this article is to understand the social, political, and institutional factors behind a 2012 reduction to Amazon National Park (ANP), the first one created in Brazil’s Amazonia. Regional, national, and international demands for cattle and gold spurred an influx of migrants to the region, which increased the demand for land in and around ANP. In addition, the park’s semi-circled boundary created confusion on the ground over its exact limits. Institutional conflicts among environmental and colonization federal agencies further compounded the problem. Lastly, national energy shortages motivated the federal government to seek a site for hydropower generation that overlapped park boundaries. The coalescence of these drivers resulted in the encroachment and eventual downsizing of ANP by 47,080 hectares, and in the modification of 43 percent of the pre-2012 perimeter of the park

Smallholder timber sales along the Transamazon Highway: a comment

Amazon Logging Forestry Deforestation

Sustainability Consequences of Making Land Change Decisions Based on Current Climatology in the Brazilian Cerrados

Brazil is one of the largest suppliers of commodities in the world, partly due to the agricultural expansion in the Brazilian savannas (also known as Cerrado) that began in the 1970s. However, as areas with better soil and climate for agriculture become scarce, farmers have been advancing to the ecotone between the savanna and xeric shrubland, where precipitation is less reliable for rainfed agriculture. The expected increase in temperature will lead to extended drought periods, with negative consequences for surface and groundwater resources. This study explores the hazards associated with making land-use decisions based on current climatology in regions where projected increases in temperature and reductions in water availability are anticipated to pose significant challenges to rainfed agriculture in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. We modeled future farmland expansion and how that matches with future climate change predictions (2016–2046). According to our estimates, at least 129 thousand km2 of cropland and 418 thousand km2 of pastures will be added in places with projected higher annual temperatures ranging from 26–30 °C. This is equivalent to ~60% of the current agricultural areas, and a novel agro-climatology will emerge for the Cerrado biome. Therefore, we discuss the agro-environmental policies that are pushing and pulling farmland expansion in the Cerrado. For instance, payments for environmental services could support the conservation of native vegetation on private land in regions with the highest temperature increases and deforestation risks. Moreover, in areas with expected reduced water yields, such as in the western Cerrado, the protection of riparian vegetation and strict regulation of water use could mitigate future risks to agriculture

Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation

Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation