217 research outputs found
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An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model
One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times
The radial evolution of solar wind speeds
The WSA-ENLIL model predicts significant evolution of the solar wind speed. Along a flux tube the solar wind speed at 1.0 AU and beyond is found to be significantly altered from the solar wind speed in the outer corona at 0.1 AU, with most of the change occurring within a few tenths of an AU from the Sun. The evolution of the solar wind speed is most pronounced during solar minimum for solar wind with observed speeds at 1.0 AU between 400 and 500 km/s, while the fastest and slowest solar wind experiences little acceleration or deceleration. Solar wind ionic charge state observations made near 1.0 AU during solar minimum are found to be consistent with a large fraction of the intermediate-speed solar wind having been accelerated or decelerated from slower or faster speeds. This paper sets the groundwork for understanding the evolution of wind speed with distance, which is critical for interpreting the solar wind composition observations near Earth and throughout the inner heliosphere. We show from composition observations that the intermediate-speed solar wind (400-500 km/s) represents a mix of what was originally fast and slow solar wind, which implies a more bimodal solar wind in the corona than observed at 1.0 AU
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Analysis of the magnetic field discontinuity at the potential field source surface and Schatten Current Sheet interface in the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model
Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?
The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E (is) approx. 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds
A Bulk-Parallel Priority Queue in External Memory with STXXL
We propose the design and an implementation of a bulk-parallel external
memory priority queue to take advantage of both shared-memory parallelism and
high external memory transfer speeds to parallel disks. To achieve higher
performance by decoupling item insertions and extractions, we offer two
parallelization interfaces: one using "bulk" sequences, the other by defining
"limit" items. In the design, we discuss how to parallelize insertions using
multiple heaps, and how to calculate a dynamic prediction sequence to prefetch
blocks and apply parallel multiway merge for extraction. Our experimental
results show that in the selected benchmarks the priority queue reaches 75% of
the full parallel I/O bandwidth of rotational disks and and 65% of SSDs, or the
speed of sorting in external memory when bounded by computation.Comment: extended version of SEA'15 conference pape
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Estimating total heliospheric magnetic flux from single-point in situ measurements
A fraction of the total photospheric magnetic flux opens to the heliosphere to form the interplanetary magnetic field carried by the solar wind. While this open flux is critical to our understanding of the generation and evolution of the solar magnetic field, direct measurements are generally limited to single-point measurements taken in situ by heliospheric spacecraft. An observed latitude invariance in the radial component of the magnetic field suggests that extrapolation from such single-point measurements to total heliospheric magnetic flux is possible. In this study we test this assumption using estimates of total heliospheric flux from well-separated heliospheric spacecraft and conclude that single-point measurements are indeed adequate proxies for the total heliospheric magnetic flux, though care must be taken when comparing flux estimates from data collected at different heliocentric distances
Ensemble Forecasts of Solar Wind Connectivity to 1 Rs using ADAPT-WSA
The solar wind which arrives at any location in the solar system is, in
principle, relatable to the outflow of solar plasma from a single source
location. This source location, itself usually being part of a larger coronal
hole, is traceable to 1 Rs along the Sun's magnetic field, in which the entire
path from 1 Rs to a location in the heliosphere is referred to as the solar
wind connectivity. While not directly measurable, the connectivity between the
near-Earth solar wind is of particular importance to space weather. The solar
wind solar source region can be obtained by leveraging near-sun magnetic field
models and a model of the interplanetary solar wind. In this article we present
a method for making an ensemble forecast of the connectivity presented as a
probability distribution obtained from a weighted collection of individual
forecasts from the combined Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux
Transport - Wang Sheeley Arge (ADAPT-WSA) model. The ADAPT model derives the
photospheric magnetic field from synchronic magnetogram data, using flux
transport physics and ongoing data assimilation processes. The WSA model uses a
coupled set of potential field type models to derive the coronal magnetic
field, and an empirical relationship to derive the terminal solar wind speed
observed at Earth. Our method produces an arbitrary 2D probability distribution
capable of reflecting complex source configurations with minimal assumptions
about the distribution structure, prepared in a computationally efficient
manner.Comment: Accepted to the journal "Space Weather
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