Two-step spatiotemporal anomaly detection corrected for lag reporting time with application to real-time dengue surveillance in Thailand

Background: Dengue infection ranges from asymptomatic to severe and life-threatening, with no specific treatment available. Vector control is crucial for interrupting its transmission cycle. Accurate estimation of outbreak timing and location is essential for efficient resource allocation. Timely and reliable notification systems are necessary to monitor dengue incidence, including spatial and temporal distributions, to detect outbreaks promptly and implement effective control measures. Methods: We proposed an integrated two-step methodology for real-time spatiotemporal cluster detection, accounting for reporting delays. In the first step, we employed space-time nowcasting modeling to compensate for lags in the reporting system. Subsequently, anomaly detection methods were applied to assess adverse risks. To illustrate the effectiveness of these detection methods, we conducted a case study using weekly dengue surveillance data from Thailand. Results: The developed methodology demonstrated robust surveillance effectiveness. By combining space-time nowcasting modeling and anomaly detection, we achieved enhanced detection capabilities, accounting for reporting delays and identifying clusters of elevated risk in real-time. The case study in Thailand showcased the practical application of our methodology, enabling timely initiation of disease control activities. Conclusion: Our integrated two-step methodology provides a valuable approach for real-time spatiotemporal cluster detection in dengue surveillance. By addressing reporting delays and incorporating anomaly detection, it complements existing surveillance systems and forecasting efforts. Implementing this methodology can facilitate the timely initiation of disease control activities, contributing to more effective prevention and control strategies for dengue in Thailand and potentially other regions facing similar challenges

Safety of efavirenz in the first trimester of pregnancy: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Article approval pendingEvidence of the risk of birth defects with efavirenz use is limited. We updated a meta-analysis of birth defects in infants with first trimester efavirenz exposure up to July 2011. In 21 studies, there were 39 defects among live births in 1437 women receiving first trimester efavirenz [2.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-3.18]. The relative risk of defects comparing women on efavirenz-based (1290 live births) and nonefavirenz-based regimens (8122 live births) was 0.85 (95% CI 0.61-1.20). One neural tube defect was observed (myelomeningocele), giving an incidence of 0.07% (95% CI 0.002-0.39)

Interaction Between Humans and Poultry, Rural Cambodia

Because avian influenza H5N1 infection risks are associated with exposure to infected poultry, we conducted a knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey of poultry-handling behavior among villagers in rural Cambodia. Despite widespread knowledge of avian influenza and personal protection measures, most rural Cambodians still have a high level of at-risk poultry handling

Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points Assessment as a Tool to Respond to Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) strain H5N1 has had direct and indirect economic impacts arising from direct mortality and control programmes in over 50 countries reporting poultry outbreaks. HPAI H5N1 is now reported as the most widespread and expensive zoonotic disease recorded and continues to pose a global health threat. The aim of this research was to assess the potential of utilising Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP) assessments in providing a framework for a rapid response to emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This novel approach applies a scientific process, widely used in food production systems, to assess risks related to a specific emerging health threat within a known zoonotic disease hotspot. We conducted a HACCP assessment for HPAI viruses within Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade and relate our findings to the existing literature. Our HACCP assessment identified poultry flock isolation, transportation, slaughter, preparation and consumption as critical control points for Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade. Introduction of the preventative measures highlighted through this HACCP evaluation would reduce the risks posed by HPAI viruses and pressure on the national economy. We conclude that this HACCP assessment provides compelling evidence for the future potential that HACCP analyses could play in initiating a rapid response to emerging infectious diseases

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Practices Exposing Humans to Avian Influenza Viruses, Their Prevalence, and Rationale

Almost all human infections by avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are transmitted from poultry. A systematic review was conducted to identify practices associated with human infections, their prevalence, and rationale. Observational studies were identified through database searches. Meta-analysis produced combined odds ratio estimates. The prevalence of practices and rationales for their adoptions were reported. Of the 48,217 records initially identified, 65 articles were included. Direct and indirect exposures to poultry were associated with infection for all investigated viral subtypes and settings. For the most frequently reported practices, association with infection seemed stronger in markets than households, for sick and dead than healthy poultry, and for H7N9 than H5N1. Practices were often described in general terms and their frequency and intensity of contact were not provided. The prevalence of practices was highly variable across studies, and no studies comprehensively explored reasons behind the adoption of practices. Combining epidemiological and targeted anthropological studies would increase the spectrum and detail of practices that could be investigated and should aim to provide insights into the rationale(s) for their existence. A better understanding of these rationales may help to design more realistic and acceptable preventive public health measures and messages

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Avian Influenza Virus A (H5N1) among Residents of Villages with Human Cases, Thailand, 20051

No evidence of influenza virus A (H5N1) neutralizing antibodies was found in residents of 4 villages where human cases had occurred the previous year

No Evidence of Avian Influenza A H5N1 among Returning US Travelers

We reviewed reports to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of US travelers suspected of having avian influenza A H5N1 virus infection from February 2003 through May 2006. Among the 59 reported patients, no evidence of H5N1 virus infection was found; none had had direct contact with poultry, but 42% had evidence of human influenza A

Human Influenza A (H5N1) Cases, Urban Areas of People’s Republic of China, 2005–2006

We investigated potential sources of infection for 6 confirmed influenza A (H5N1) patients who resided in urban areas of People’s Republic of China. None had known exposure to sick poultry or poultry that died from illness, but all had visited wet poultry markets before illness

Knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) relating to avian influenza in urban and rural areas of China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies have revealed that visiting poultry markets and direct contact with sick or dead poultry are significant risk factors for H5N1 infection, the practices of which could possibly be influenced by people's knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAPs) associated with avian influenza (AI). To determine the KAPs associated with AI among the Chinese general population, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in China.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used standardized, structured questionnaires distributed in both an urban area (Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; n = 1,826) and a rural area (Xiuning, Anhui Province; n = 2,572) using the probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling technique.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Approximately three-quarters of participants in both groups requested more information about AI. The preferred source of information for both groups was television. Almost three-quarters of all participants were aware of AI as an infectious disease; the urban group was more aware that it could be transmitted through poultry, that it could be prevented, and was more familiar with the relationship between AI and human infection. The villagers in Xiuning were more concerned than Shenzhen residents about human AI viral infection. Regarding preventative measures, a higher percentage of the urban group used soap for hand washing whereas the rural group preferred water only. Almost half of the participants in both groups had continued to eat poultry after being informed about the disease.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study shows a high degree of awareness of human AI in both urban and rural populations, and could provide scientific support to assist the Chinese government in developing strategies and health-education campaigns to prevent AI infection among the general population.</p

Zoonotic Transmission of Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1), Egypt, 2006–2009

A lower case-fatality rate may have been caused by a less virulent virus clade