Association between somatic cell count early in the first lactation and the lifetime milk yield of cows in Irish dairy herds

Change in lifetime milk yield is an important component of the cost of diseases in dairy cows. Knowledge of the likelihood and scale of potential savings through disease prevention measures is important to evaluate how much expenditure on control measures is rational. The aim of this study was to assess the association between somatic cell count (SCC) at 5 to 30 d in milk during parity 1 (SCC1), and lifetime milk yield for cows in Irish dairy herds. The data set studied included records from 53,652 cows in 5,922 Irish herds. This was split into 2 samples of 2,500 and 3,422 herds at random. Linear models with lifetime milk yield and first-lactation milk yield as the outcomes and random effects to account for variation between herds were fitted to the data for the first sample of herds; data for the second sample were used for cross-validation. The models were developed in a Bayesian framework to include all uncertainty in posterior predictions and parameters were estimated from 10,000 Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The final model was a good fit to the data and appeared generalizable to other Irish herds. A unit increase in the natural logarithm of SCC1 was associated with a median decrease in lifetime milk yield of 864kg, and a median decrease in first-lactation milk yield of 105kg. To clarify the meaning of the results in context, microsimulation was used to model the trajectory of individual cows, and evaluate the expected outcomes for particular changes in the herd-level prevalence of cows with SCC1 ≥400,000cells/mL. Differences in mean lifetime milk yield associated with these changes were multiplied by an estimated gross margin for each cow to give the potential difference in milk revenue. Results were presented as probabilities of savings; for example, a 75% probability of savings of at least€97 or€115/heifer calved into the herd existed if the prevalence of cows with SCC1 ≥400,000cells/mL was reduced from ≥20 to <10 or <5%, respectively, and at least€71/heifer calved into the herd if the prevalence of cows with SCC1 ≥400,000cells/mL was reduced from ≥10 to <5%. The results indicate large differences in lifetime milk yield, depending on SCC early in the first lactation and the findings can be used to assess where specific interventions to control heifer mastitis prepartum are likely to be cost effective. Key words: dairy heifer, somatic cell count, lifetime milk yiel

Bayesian evaluation of budgets for endemic disease control: an example using management changes to reduce milksomatic cell count early in the first lactation of Irish dairy cows

The aim of this research was to determine budgets for specific management interventions to control heifer mastitis in Irish dairy herds as an example of evidence synthesis and 1-step Bayesian micro-simulation in a veterinary context. Budgets were determined for different decision makers based on their willingness to pay. Reducing the prevalence of heifers with a high milk somatic cell count (SCC) early in the first lactation could be achieved through herd level management interventions for pre- and peri-partum heifers, however the cost effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. A synthesis of multiple sources of evidence, accounting for variability and uncertainty in the available data is invaluable to inform decision makers around likely economic outcomes of investing in disease control measures. One analytical approach to this is Bayesian micro-simulation, where the trajectory of different individuals undergoing specific interventions is simulated. The classic micro-simulation framework was extended to encompass synthesis of evidence from 2 separate statistical models and previous research, with the outcome for an individual cow or herd assessed in terms of changes in lifetime milk yield, disposal risk, and likely financial returns conditional on the interventions being simultaneously applied. The 3 interventions tested were storage of bedding inside, decreasing transition yard stocking density, and spreading of bedding evenly in the calving area. Budgets for the interventions were determined based on the minimum expected return on investment, and the probability of the desired outcome. Budgets for interventions to control heifer mastitis were highly dependent on the decision maker's willingness to pay, and hence minimum expected return on investment. Understanding the requirements of decision makers and their rational spending limits would be useful for the development of specific interventions for particular farms to control heifer mastitis, and other endemic diseases. Keywords Bayesian; Micro-simulation; Dairy heifer; Mastitis control; Cost-effectiveness; Decision makin

Aberrant crypt foci and microadenoma as markers for colon cancer.

Foci of aberrant crypts similar to those seen in experimental animals exposed to colon carcinogens have been identified and quantified on the mucosal surface of fixed resections of human colon after methylene blue staining. Many of the foci in humans showed dysplasia on histologic examination and were considered to be microadenoma (MA). These lesions may be precursors for adenomatous polyps and colorectal cancer. Rats and mice initiated with azoxymethane, then fed diets containing sucrose or casein heated at 180 degrees C to stimulate normal cooking conditions, had three to five times more large MA after 100 days than controls. Thus, cooked sugar and protein contain promoters of the growth of colonic MA. 5-Hydroxymethylfuraldehyde was identified as a promoter in cooked sugar

Association between somatic cell count during the first lactation and the cumulative milk yield of cows in Irish dairy herds

Reduced potential milk yield is an important component of mastitis costs in dairy cows. The first aim of this study was to assess associations between somatic cell count (SCC) during the first lactation, and cumulative milk yield over the first lactation and subsequent lifetime of cows in Irish dairy herds. The second aim was to assess the association between SCC at 5 to 30 d in milk during parity 1 (SCC1), and SCC over the entire first lactation for cows in Irish dairy herds. The data set studied included records from 51,483 cows in 5,900 herds. Somatic cell count throughout the first lactation was summarized using the geometric mean and variance of SCC. Data were analyzed using linear models that included random effects to account for the lack of independence between observations, and herdlevel variation in coefficients. Models were developed in a Bayesian framework and parameters were estimated from 10,000 Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The final models were a good fit to the data. A 1-unit increase in mean natural logarithm SCC over the first lactation was associated with a median decrease in first lactation and lifetime milk yield of 135 and 1,663 kg, respectively. A 1-unit increase in the variance of natural logarithm SCC over the first lactation was associated with a median decrease in lifetime milk yield of 719 kg. To demonstrate the context of lifetime milk yield results, microsimulation was used to model the trajectory of individual cows and evaluate the expected outcomes for particular changes in herd-level geometric mean SCC over the first lactation. A 75% certainty of savings of at least €199/heifer in the herd was detected if herd-level geometric mean SCC over the first lactation was reduced from ≥120,000 to ≤72,000 cells/mL. The association between SCC1 and SCC over the remainder of the first lactation was highly herd dependent, indicating that control measures for heifer mastitis should be preferentially targeted on an individual-herd basis toward either the pre- and peripartum period, or the lactating period, to optimize the lifetime milk yield of dairy cows

The oceanic biogeochemistry of nickel and its isotopes: New data from the South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean biogeochemical divide

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Structural crossover in a model fluid exhibiting two length scales: repercussions for quasicrystal formation

We investigate the liquid state structure of the two-dimensional model introduced by Barkan et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 098304 (2014)], which exhibits quasicrystalline and other unusual solid phases, focusing on the radial distribution function g(r) and its asymptotic decay r→∞. For this particular model system, we find that as the density is increased there is a structural crossover from damped oscillatory asymptotic decay with one wavelength to damped oscillatory asymptotic decay with another distinct wavelength. The ratio of these wavelengths is ≈1.932. Following the locus in the phase diagram of this structural crossover leads directly to the region where quasicrystals are found. We argue that identifying and following such a crossover line in the phase diagram towards higher densities where the solid phase(s) occur is a good strategy for finding quasicrystals in a wide variety of systems. We also show how the pole analysis of the asymptotic decay of equilibrium fluid correlations is intimately connected with the nonequilibrium growth or decay of small-amplitude density fluctuations in a bulk fluid