Neural-Based Ensembles and Unorganized Machines to Predict Streamflow Series from Hydroelectric Plants

Estimating future streamflows is a key step in producing electricity for countries with hydroelectric plants. Accurate predictions are particularly important due to environmental and economic impact they lead. In order to analyze the forecasting capability of models regarding monthly seasonal streamflow series, we realized an extensive investigation considering: six versions of unorganized machines—extreme learning machines (ELM) with and without regularization coefficient (RC), and echo state network (ESN) using the reservoirs from Jaeger’s and Ozturk et al., with and without RC. Additionally, we addressed the ELM as the combiner of a neural-based ensemble, an investigation not yet accomplished in such context. A comparative analysis was performed utilizing two linear approaches (autoregressive model (AR) and autoregressive and moving average model (ARMA)), four artificial neural networks (multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, Elman network, and Jordan network), and four ensembles. The tests were conducted at five hydroelectric plants, using horizons of 1, 3, 6, and 12 steps ahead. The results indicated that the unorganized machines and the ELM ensembles performed better than the linear models in all simulations. Moreover, the errors showed that the unorganized machines and the ELM-based ensembles reached the best general performances

Trusted autonomous vehicles: an interactive exhibit

Recent surveys about autonomous vehicles show that the public is concerned about the safety consequences of system or equipment failures and the vehicles' reactions to unexpected situations. We believe that informing about the technology and quality, e.g., safety and reliability, of autonomous vehicles is paramount to improving public expectations, perception and acceptance. In this paper, we report on the design of an interactive exhibit to illustrate (1) basic technologies employed in autonomous vehicles, i.e., sensors and object classification; and (2) basic principles for ensuring their quality, i.e., employing software testing and simulations. We subsequently report on a public engagement event involving this exhibit at the Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition 2019 in the exhibit titled "Trusted Autonomous Vehicles". We describe the process of designing and developing the artefacts used in our exhibit, the theoretical background associated to them, the design of our stand, and the lessons learned. The activities and findings of this study can be used by other educators and researchers interested in promoting trust in autonomous vehicles among the general public

Patterns of viral load in chronic hepatitis B

ABSTRACT Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level is a predictor of the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients. Nevertheless, the distribution of viral load levels in chronic HBV patients in Brazil has yet to be described. This cross-sectional study included 564 participants selected in nine Brazilian cities located in four of the five regions of the country using the database of a medical diagnostics company. Admission criteria included hepatitis B surface antigen seropositivity, availability of HBV viral load samples and age ≥ 18 years. Males comprised 64.5% of the study population. Mean age was 43.7 years. Most individuals (62.1%) were seronegative for the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg). Median serum ALT level was 34 U/L. In 58.5% of the patients HBV-DNA levels ranged from 300 to 99,999 copies/mL; however, in 21.6% levels were undetectable. Median HBV-DNA level was 2,351 copies/mL. Over 60% of the patients who tested negative for HBeAg and in whom ALT level was less than 1.5 times the upper limit of the normal range had HBV-DNA levels > 2,000 IU/mL, which has been considered a cut-off point for indicating a liver biopsy and/or treatment. In conclusion, HBV-DNA level identified a significant proportion of Brazilian individuals with chronic hepatitis B at risk of disease progression. Furthermore, this tool enables those individuals with high HBV-DNA levels who are susceptible to disease progression to be identified among patients with normal or slightly elevated ALT

Rarity of monodominance in hyperdiverse Amazonian forests.

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such "monodominant" forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors

Cadastramento de doadores voluntários de Medula Óssea no REDOME

Anais do 35º Seminário de Extensão Universitária da Região Sul - Área temática: SaúdeO transplante de medula óssea consiste na substituição de uma medula óssea doente ou deficitária por células normais, com o objetivo de reconstituição de uma nova medula. Um fator que dificulta a realização do procedimento é a falta de doador compatível. Assim, quanto maior o número de novos doadores voluntários cadastrados no REDOME (Registro Brasileiro de Doadores Voluntários de Medula Óssea), maiores são as possibilidades de o paciente encontrar um doador compatível. Nosso projeto de extensão tem como objetivo a conscientização da população sobre o cadastramento de doadores voluntários de medula óssea nas regiões de Maringá, Cianorte e Paranavaí, por meio de campanhas de captação de doadores, palestras de conscientização e divulgação sobre a doação e o transplante de medula óssea. O projeto vem colaborando no crescimento do REDOME com doadores mais conscientes sobre a responsabilidade do cadastro no banco. Assim, nossa equipe deve continuar realizando o trabalho de conscientização da população, pois quanto maior o número de doadores, maior é a possibilidade de se encontrar um doador compatíve

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)