Endogenous Growth and Comparative Standards of Living between Mexico and the US

This paper calibrates an AK model of growth for Mexico. Investment financing is modeled considering the domestic savings ratio as well as net factorial income and capital inflows of the balance of payments. Productivity A and the rate of depreciation of capital are found using econometric techniques. According to this model, actual parameters determining growth in Mexico are compatible with a sustained long run rate of growth of about 3.6%. At the same time, under these circumstances the ratio of the Mexican GDP to US GDP would be growing in time. The model is very sensible to the parameters and depends strongly of Mexicans living in the US and transferring remittances to Mexico, nonetheless. If remittances were eliminated, the actual rate of domestic savings would not be compatible with positive growth in the long run, which implies that relatively speaking the domestic savings rate in Mexico is very low. The paper concludes that to assure a positive growth that improves standards of living and the relative size of Mexico with respect to the US, it is necessary to implement policies oriented to increase the domestic savings rate and productivity. Otherwise there are high risks of macroeconomic crises in the future.

Ajustes discontinuos de salarios, inflación y fluctuaciones económicas

If nominal wages adjust less frequently than prices, a constant rate of growth of the quantity of money will produce cyclical fluctuations of production and inflation. The same phenomenon can modify the average long run production of the economy, generating Phillips curves sometimes with a negative slope and some other times with a positive slope.

An effort to make sense of antisense transcription in bacteria

Analysis of bacterial transcriptomes have shown the existence of a genome-wide process of overlapping transcription due to the presence of antisense RNAs, as well as mRNAs that overlapped in their entire length or in some portion of the 5′- and 3′-UTR regions. The biological advantages of such overlapping transcription are unclear but may play important regulatory roles at the level of transcription, RNA stability and translation. In a recent report, the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus is observed to generate genome-wide overlapping transcription in the same bacterial cells leading to a collection of short RNA fragments generated by the endoribonuclease III, RNase III. This processing appears most prominently in Gram-positive bacteria. The implications of both the use of pervasive overlapping transcription and the processing of these double stranded templates into short RNAs are explored and the consequences discussed. © 2012 Landes Bioscience.This research was supported by grants ERA-NET Pathogenomics (PIM2010EPA-00606), BIO2008-05284-C02, BIO2011- 30503-C02 and BFU2011-23222 from Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.A.T.-A. is recipient of “Ramon y Cajal” contracts from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. This research was supported by grants ERA-NET Pathogenomics (PIM2010EPA-00606), BIO2008-05284-C02, BIO2011-30503-C02 and BFU2011-23222 from Spanish Ministry of Economy and CompetitivenessPeer Reviewe

Propuesta para desarrollar una gestión por competencias en una financiera de la ciudad de Chiclayo, 2021

Las nuevas corrientes del conocimiento y éxito empresarial de los últimos años ha sido la correcta gestión del recuso humano para lograr un rendimiento optimo y cumplir con los objetivos organizacionales, es por ello que el propósito del estudio fue crear una propuesta de gestión por competencias para una financiera de la ciudad de Chiclayo, para ello se identificó las competencias que poseen los colaboradores y las competencias que requieren los directivos de esta. Se desarrollo una investigación de nivel descriptivo de tipo propositivo, con diseño no experimental. La población estuvo formada por los colaboradores de todos los niveles a excepción de directivos, siendo cien su totalidad. Se aplico un cuestionario de treinta ítems, el cual tuvo un nivel de confiabilidad de 0.94 según el Alfa de Cronbach. Se concluye según los resultados que los colaboradores poseen solo tres de las seis competencias las cuales son comunicación efectiva, innovación e inteligencia emocional, siendo estas dimensiones indispensables para un rendimiento favorable de la organización

Credibility and business cycles in exchange rate based stabilization programmes.

Differently from orthodox stabilization programmes, exchange rate based stabilization programmes (ERBS) show a peculiar cycle. Output, growth and consumption rise from the onset and there is a huge current account deficit. Since several programmes have been accompanied by huge capital inflows, the economic cycle is known as the capital inflows problem. The economic literature has identified the capital inflows problem with a situation where there is not fiscal adjustment or people do not believe in the programme (see chapter two). However, chapter one of this thesis shows that the cycle has been observed in successful and consistent programmes (Argentina 1991- , Bolivia 1985- , Israel 1985- and Mexico 1987-1994). It has been also observed in absence of capital inflows (Mexico 1988). Furthermore, some of its negatives consequences (eg balance of payments crises) have occurred in programmes under fiscal adjustment. These observations deserve an explanation. Chapter two makes a review of the literature about the economic effects of ERBS. Chapter three questions why successful ERBS have observed, increases in long run growth and/or output from the onset and also the symptoms of the capital inflows problem (higher consumption, current account deficits). To answer the question, the chapter sets a growth model in a cash in advance economy. The main results are that sluggish disinflation can increase the long run growth and definitely increases the long run output of the economy. However, it cannot explain the symptoms of the capital inflows problem by itself. When the model is extended to capture some externalities, then it suggests that the structural policies accompanying successful ERBS are responsible of higher consumption and current account deficits. In those cases, that situation is not a problem. Chapter four questions why the symptoms of the capital inflows problem may appear in absence of capital inflows. The answer is that these symptoms emerge when there is lack of credibility and the monetary policy is accommodative. In this context, actual fiscal policy is irrelevant to combat the problem if it cannot change expectations of future inflation. Monetary policy is effective but often produces huge fiscal costs since real interest rates have to rise considerably. When the actual fiscal deficit increases the future expected inflation, tight monetary policy may generate a perverse effect fuelling the symptoms of the problem. Chapter five questions why ERBS that apparently are consistent may be subject to the capital inflows problem and eventually to balance of payments crises. Political factors are responsible of this situation. The chapter sets a model that resembles the Mexican political system. Actual government chooses its successor. The former has incentives to choose a future candidate with preferences for high inflation. People, forecasting this possibility, consumes more in periods of low inflation. That generates the capital inflows problem. Chapter six concludes

Economic Growth and Human Capital: Methodology to Simulate a Lucas Model variant with application for Mexico

Este trabajo tiene como principal objetivo plantear una variante del modelo de crecimiento de Lucas (1988) que pueda fácilmente ser sujeta a ejercicios de calibración y simulación. Un segundo objetivo es calibrar y simular el modelo propuesto para el caso de México. Para lograr lo anterior, se parte del modelo original de Lucas (1988) y de la estructura de ahorro-inversión propuesta por Solow (1956, 1957). El ejercicio de calibración-simulación para México muestra que aumentar el crecimiento del producto per cápita en este país en sólo unas décimas requiere un esfuerzo de ahorro adicional difícil de generar en los próximos años, por lo cual es posible que el crecimiento del futuro cercano siga siendo bajo. La metodología propuesta puede generar un sesgo donde el crecimiento depende en exceso de la trayectoria de capital humano, eso sucede en modelos del tipo de Lucas (1988, 2009). Sin embargo, las formas reducidas del modelo planteado pueden calibrarse y simularse con relativa facilidad para la mayoría de los países que tienen información bases de datos públicas, como en la Penn World Table. The main objective of this paper is to set a variant of the Lucas (1988) model that may be easily calibrated and simulated. A second goal is to calibrate and simulate the proposed model for México. To achieve the previous objectives, we draw from the original Lucas (1988) model and the saving-investment structure proposed by Solow (1956, 1957). A calibration-simulation exercise for México shows that in order to increase the growth of the product per capita by less than one percentage, it is necessary to generate an additional savings, which is difficult to generate in the coming years. For this reason, growth in this country quite possibly will continue being low in the following years. The proposed methodology may generate a bias where growth depends in excess of the trajectory of human capital, which happens in Lucas type models (Lucas 1988, 2009). However, the reduced forms of the proposed model may be calibrated and simulated with relative ease for the majority of the countries that have information in public databases, like the Penn World Table

Una comparación teórica de la crisis europea actual con las crisis de México en los años ochenta y noventa: ¿El ajuste del tipo de cambio real reduce el sacrificio que produce la crisis?

Este trabajo lleva a cabo una comparación teórica de los efectos de una crisis como la que enfrentan diversos países europeos en la actualidad, con las que enfrentó México en los años ochenta y noventa. Las condiciones iniciales de ambas crisis son similares. La mayor diferencia es el hecho de que el ajuste del tipo de cambio real en Europa es casi nulo en el corto plazo si los países continúan en la eurozona. En ambos casos debe haber un sacrificio en términos del producto. Si la deuda inicial está denominada en moneda extranjera, no es claro que el sacrificio, manteniendo el tipo de cambio real constante, sea mayor que si se ajusta dicha variable

Limited Information and the Relation Between the Variance of Inflation and the Variance of Output in a New Keynesian Perspective

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los efectos sobre el bienestar que puede tener la política monetaria que establece la tasa de interés de referencia por intervalos discretos de tiempo. La hipótesis es que debido a que hay incertidumbre sobre diversas perturbaciones que tendrán lugar en el período en que se establece la tasa de interés referencial, esto puede causar una pérdida de bienestar social. Para analizar el problema, se plantea un modelo donde el banco central minimiza una función de pérdida. Cuando hay perfecta certidumbre, se alcanza una frontera eficiente entre las varianzas de la inflación y el producto. Con incertidumbre el resultado es ineficiente. Esto implica la necesidad de discutir si sería conveniente que la tasa de interés se fijara de manera contingente. La principal limitación del trabajo es tal vez que el modelo utilizado hace una gran cantidad de abstracciones, lo que le permite ser funcional, pero puede dejar de lado aspectos importantes de la realidad. Por otra parte, parece haber muy pocos trabajos, o tal vez ninguno, que traten el problema particular analizado este artículo.The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects on welfare of a monetary policy that establishes the reference interest rate at discrete intervals of time. The hypothesis is that because there is uncertainty about various disturbances that will occur in the period in which the referential interest rate is established, this can cause a loss of social welfare. To analyze the problem, a model is proposed where the central bank minimizes a loss function. When there is perfect certainty, an efficient frontier between the variances of inflation and output is reached. With uncertainty the result is inefficient. This implies the need to discuss whether it would be convenient for the interest rate to be set contingently. The main limitation of the work is perhaps that the model used makes a large number of abstractions, which allows it to be functional, but can leave out important aspects of reality. There seems to be very few papers, in any, that deal with the problem addressed in this wor