From descriptive to predictive distribution models: a working example with Iberian amphibians and reptiles

BACKGROUND: Aim of the study was to identify the conditions under which spatial-environmental models can be used for the improved understanding of species distributions, under the explicit criterion of model predictive performance. I constructed distribution models for 17 amphibian and 21 reptile species in Portugal from atlas data and 13 selected ecological variables with stepwise logistic regression and a geographic information system. Models constructed for Portugal were extrapolated over Spain and tested against range maps and atlas data. RESULTS: Descriptive model precision ranged from 'fair' to 'very good' for 12 species showing a range border inside Portugal ('edge species', kappa (k) 0.35–0.89, average 0.57) and was at best 'moderate' for 26 species with a countrywide Portuguese distribution ('non-edge species', k = 0.03–0.54, average 0.29). The accuracy of the prediction for Spain was significantly related to the precision of the descriptive model for the group of edge species and not for the countrywide species. In the latter group data were consistently better captured with the single variable search-effort than by the panel of environmental data. CONCLUSION: Atlas data in presence-absence format are often inadequate to model the distribution of species if the considered area does not include part of the range border. Conversely, distribution models for edge-species, especially those displaying high precision, may help in the correct identification of parameters underlying the species range and assist with the informed choice of conservation measures

Determinants of the exclusive breastfeeding abandonment: psychosocial factors

OBJECTIVE To assess the determinants of exclusive breastfeeding abandonment. METHODS Longitudinal study based on a birth cohort in Viçosa, MG, Southeastern Brazil. In 2011/2012, 168 new mothers accessing the public health network were followed. Three interviews, at 30, 60, and 120 days postpartum, with the new mothers were conducted. Exclusive breastfeeding abandonment was analyzed in the first, second, and fourth months after childbirth. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale was applied to identify depressive symptoms in the first and second meetings, with a score of ≥ 12 considered as the cutoff point. Socioeconomic, demographic, and obstetric variables were investigated, along with emotional conditions and the new mothers’ social network during pregnancy and the postpartum period. RESULTS The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding abandonment at 30, 60, and 120 days postpartum was 53.6% (n = 90), 47.6% (n = 80), and 69.6% (n = 117), respectively, and its incidence in the fourth month compared with the first was 48.7%. Depressive symptoms and traumatic delivery were associated with exclusive breastfeeding abandonment in the second month after childbirth. In the fourth month, the following variables were significant: lower maternal education levels, lack of homeownership, returning to work, not receiving guidance on breastfeeding in the postpartum period, mother’s negative reaction to the news of pregnancy, and not receiving assistance from their partners for infant care. CONCLUSIONS Psychosocial and sociodemographic factors were strong predictors of early exclusive breastfeeding abandonment. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and provide early treatment to nursing mothers with depressive symptoms, decreasing the associated morbidity and promoting greater duration of exclusive breastfeeding. Support from health professionals, as well as that received at home and at work, can assist in this process

Decline in Diarrhea Mortality and Admissions after Routine Childhood Rotavirus Immunization in Brazil: A Time-Series Analysis

A time series analysis by Manish Patel and colleagues shows that the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Brazil is associated with reduced diarrhea-related deaths and hospital admissions in children under 5 years of age