An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Edge Elimination in TSP Instances

The Traveling Salesman Problem is one of the best studied NP-hard problems in combinatorial optimization. Powerful methods have been developed over the last 60 years to find optimum solutions to large TSP instances. The largest TSP instance so far that has been solved optimally has 85,900 vertices. Its solution required more than 136 years of total CPU time using the branch-and-cut based Concorde TSP code [1]. In this paper we present graph theoretic results that allow to prove that some edges of a TSP instance cannot occur in any optimum TSP tour. Based on these results we propose a combinatorial algorithm to identify such edges. The runtime of the main part of our algorithm is $O(n^2 \log n)$ for an n-vertex TSP instance. By combining our approach with the Concorde TSP solver we are able to solve a large TSPLIB instance more than 11 times faster than Concorde alone

A New Sub-Period-Minimum Cataclysmic Variable With Partial Hydrogen Depletion And Evidence Of Spiral Disk Structure

We present time-resolved spectroscopy and photometry of CSS 120422:111127+571239 (=SBS 1108+574), a recently discovered SU UMa-type dwarf nova whose 55 minute orbital period is well below the cataclysmic variable (CV) period minimum of similar to 78 minutes. In contrast with most other known CVs, its spectrum features He I emission of comparable strength to the Balmer lines, implying a hydrogen abundance less than 0.1 of long-period CVs-but still at least 10 times higher than that in AM CVn stars. Together, the short orbital period and remarkable helium-to-hydrogen ratio suggest that mass transfer in CSS 120422 began near the end of the donor star's main-sequence lifetime, meaning that this CV is a strong candidate progenitor of an AM CVn system as described by Podsiadlowski et al. Moreover, a Doppler tomogram of the Ha line reveals two distinct regions of enhanced emission. While one is the result of the stream-disk impact, the other is probably attributable to spiral disk structure generated when material in the outer disk achieves a 2:1 orbital resonance with respect to the donor.NSF AST-1211196, AST-9987045Department of Physics at the University of Notre DameNSF Telescope System Instrumentation Program (TSIP)Ohio Board of RegentsOhio State University Office of ResearchAstronom

Do Movement Patterns and Habitat Use Differ Between Optimal- and Suboptimal-sized Northern Bobwhite Coveys?

The group size of social animals and spatial structure of the environment can affect group behavior and movement decisions. Our objective was to investigate movement patterns and habitat use of northern bobwhite coveys (Colinus virginianus) of different size. Using radiotelemetry, we continuously monitored covey group size, daily movement, and habitat use on 12 independent 259-ha study areas in eastern Kansas, USA, during the winters between 1997 and 2000. We used correlated random walk models and fractal dimension models to determine if covey size affected movement characteristics or habitat selection. Intermediate-sized coveys (9–12 individuals, close to optimal covey size) exhibited daily movements that were substantially smaller and weekly home ranges that were more composed of woody escape cover than coveys of smaller or larger sizes. From the fractal dimension analyses, these coveys exhibited movement in between linear and a random walk at small spatial scales but very linear at large spatial scales. Large coveys had increased daily movement and tended to move in straighter lines (as indicated by the high proportion of turning angles [i.e., the angle between an initial direction and a new direction] around 0° and 180° and their multiscale fractal dimension) and they incorporated more cropland into their range, presumably to meet the feeding requirements of a larger group. In contrast, small coveys (1–4 individuals) tended to move more and increase the size of their home range, travel with a greater diversity of turning angles, and show movement patterns that were largely tortuous across a greater number of habitat patches at larger spatial scales (700 m). Small coveys have lower fitness and add new membership to increase fitness so it is possible that the movement behavior we observed represented a shift into a foray mode where bobwhites were searching for new membership. For areas with small populations and covey sizes, this information will help biologists better plan for habitat management to assist these coveys with their winter fitness

Large Scale Inhomogeneities from the QCD Phase Transition

We examine the first-order cosmological QCD phase transition for a large class of parameter values, previously considered unlikely. We find that the hadron bubbles can nucleate at very large distance scales, they can grow as detonations as well as deflagrations, and that the phase transition may be completed without reheating to the critical temperature. For a subset of the parameter values studied, the inhomogeneities generated at the QCD phase transition might have a noticeable effect on nucleosynthesis.Comment: 15 LaTeX pages + 6 PostScript figures appended at the end of the file, HU-TFT-94-1

The Quark-Hadron Phase Transition, QCD Lattice Calculations and Inhomogeneous Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis

We review recent lattice QCD results for the surface tension at the finite temperature quark-hadron phase transition and discuss their implications on the possible scale of inhomogeneities. In the quenched approximation the average distance between nucleating centers is smaller than the diffusion length of a protron, so that inhomogeneities are washed out by the time nucleosynthesis sets in. Consequently the baryon density fluctuations formed by a QCD phase transition in the early universe cannot significantly affect standard big-bang nucleosynthesis calculations and certainly cannot allow baryons to close the universe. At present lattice results are inconclusive when dynamical fermions are included.Comment: 8 pages, LaTe

Cosmic string induced sheet like baryon inhomogeneities at quark-hadron transition

Cosmic strings moving through matter produce wakes where density is higher than the background density. We investigate the effects of such wakes occurring at the time of a first order quark-hadron transition in the early universe and show that they can lead to separation of quark-gluon plasma phase in the wake region, while the region outside the wake converts to the hadronic phase. Moving interfaces then trap large baryon densities in sheet like regions which can extend across the entire horizon. Typical separation between such sheets, at formation, is of the order of a km. Regions of baryon inhomogeneity of this nature, i.e. having a planar geometry, and separated by such large distance scales, appear to be well suited for the recent models of inhomogeneous nucleosynthesis to reconcile with the large baryon to photon ratio implied by the recent measurements of the cosmic microwave background power spectrum.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Solving a "Hard" Problem to Approximate an "Easy" One: Heuristics for Maximum Matchings and Maximum Traveling Salesman Problems

We consider geometric instances of the Maximum Weighted Matching Problem (MWMP) and the Maximum Traveling Salesman Problem (MTSP) with up to 3,000,000 vertices. Making use of a geometric duality relationship between MWMP, MTSP, and the Fermat-Weber-Problem (FWP), we develop a heuristic approach that yields in near-linear time solutions as well as upper bounds. Using various computational tools, we get solutions within considerably less than 1% of the optimum. An interesting feature of our approach is that, even though an FWP is hard to compute in theory and Edmonds' algorithm for maximum weighted matching yields a polynomial solution for the MWMP, the practical behavior is just the opposite, and we can solve the FWP with high accuracy in order to find a good heuristic solution for the MWMP.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures, Latex, to appear in Journal of Experimental Algorithms, 200