Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets

The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock – expansionary versus contractionary – and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established based on a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. We test and find supporting evidence for the hypothesis that expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices when supply elasticities are low. Our results also suggest that contractionary shocks are orthogonal to supply elasticities, as implied by downward rigidity of housing supply. A standard theoretical conjecture is that contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks, as long as supply is not perfectly inelastic. For areas with high housing supply elasticity, our results are in line with this conjecture. However, for areas with an inelastic housing supply, we find that expansionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than contractionary shocks. We provide evidence that the direction of the asymmetry is related to a momentum effect that is more pronounced when house prices are increasing than when they are falling

Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version

The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correcting model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2- 2008q4. The results establish a two-way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on housing prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households’ expectations about future development in teir own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side, these effects are dampened. The paper is an extended version of Anundsen and Jansen (2013b) and it encompasses a previous Discussion Paper 651 (Anundsen and Jansen, 2011).publishedVersio

Supply Restrictions, Subprime Lending and Regional US House Prices

With regard to the recent US house price cycle, we analyze how the interaction between housing supply restrictions, mortgage credit constraints and a price-to-price feedback loop affects house price volatility. Considering 247 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, we estimate a simultaneous boom-bust system for house prices, housing supply and subprime lending. The model accounts for regional differences in supply elasticities that are determined by local variations in topographical and regulatory supply restrictions. Our results suggest that tighter supply restrictions lead to both a larger house price boom and bust, and that this is due to supply restricted areas being significantly more exposed to a financial accelerator effect and a price-to-price expectation mechanism. We further find that the presence of endogenous price acceleration mechanisms contribute to dilute the positive relationship between the total quantity response and the supply elasticity.publishedVersio

Regional US House Price Formation: One Model Fits All?

Does a "one model fits all" approach apply to the econometric modeling of regional house price determination? To answer this question, we utilize a panel of 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period 1980q1-2010q2. For each area we estimate a separate cointegrated VAR model, focusing on differences in the effect of subprime lending and lagged house price appreciation. Our results demonstrate substantial differences in the importance of subprime lending for house price determination across regional housing markets. Specifically, we find a greater impact of subprime lending in areas with a high degree of physical and regulatory restrictions on land supply. Likewise, lagged house price appreciation - interpreted as capturing an adaptive expectation channel - is found to be more important in areas where the supply of dwellings is more constrained, in areas located in a state with non-recourse lending and in more populous areas. Our results also suggest that disequilibrium constellations are restored more slowly in areas located in a state with non-recourse lending.publishedVersio

Location, location, location! - A quality-adjusted rent index for the Oslo office market

In this paper, we construct a quality-adjusted rent index for the office market in Oslo. Commonly used rent indices are based on average developments or expert opinions. Such indices often suffer from compositional biases or low data coverage. Using detailed data from more than 16,000 rental contracts, we show that compositional biases can have a large impact on rental price developments. By adding building fixed effects to a standard hedonic regression model, we show that the explanatory power increases considerably. Furthermore, indices controlling for micro-location portray a different picture of rent developments than indices that do not take this into account. We also document a considerable rent premium for proximity to a metro station. Finally, we exploit information on contract signature date and find that a more timely detection of turning-points can be achieved by using the signature date instead of the more typically used start date of the lease. The financial system is heavily exposed towards the commercial real estate market and timely detection of turning-points is of major importance to policymakers.publishedVersio

Did Us Consumers ”Save for a Rainy Day” Before the Great Recession?

The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the permanent income hypothesis is true. We find mixed support for this hypothesis using time series data for the 100 largest US Metropolitan Statistical Areas, as well as aggregate macro time series, for the period 1980q1-2011q4. That is, income is more often found to predict consumption and saving than the converse. Our modus operandi is to investigate the 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis by testing (weak) exogeneity of income and consumption and by exploring the direction of Granger causality between the two series. We also give evidence that house price changes played a role in the US income and consumption dynamics, before, during and after the Great Recession.publishedVersio

Regional Differences in House Prices and Debt

House prices and household debt are closely linked. Both house prices and household debt have been rising faster than household income for a longer period. In order to assess household vulnerabilities, debt relative to both income and the value of the dwelling are relevant variables. The analysis is based on data for publically registered housing transactions linked with tax records for household income and debt in order to shed light on regional differences in house prices and homebuyers’ debt. We find that for households that purchased a dwelling in 2014, debt relative to total income was higher than for homebuyers in 2009. This suggests that homebuyers have become more vulnerable to interest rate increases and a loss of income. The total debt to income ratio was highest for homebuyers in urban areas, reflecting the fact that house prices relative to income are highest in urban areas. At the same time, debt relative to the price of the dwelling is lower in urban areas than elsewhere in the country, and this ratio fell between 2009 and 2014.publishedVersio

Oljepris og lønnsutvikling i K-sektor

I denne artikkelen foretas en økonometrisk analyse av lønnsdannelsen i verfts- og verkstedindustrien og i øvrig industri ved hjelp av årlige data for perioden 1980–2014. I tillegg til å ta hensyn til egen lønnsomhetsutvikling, finner jeg at begge industrigrenene skjeler til lønnsutviklingen i annen del av industrien når lønninger fastsettes. Dette betyr at lønningene kan øke, selv i fravær av en økning i lønnsomheten i egen industri. Samtidig innebærer det at lønningene vil øke mindre enn egen lønnsomhetsutvikling skulle tilsi. Dynamiske simuleringer viser at en økning i oljeprisen bidrar til å øke lønningene i verfts- og verkstedindustrien relativt til øvrig industri. Den økte oljeprisen fører også til en fallende lønnsandel i verfts- og verkstedindustrien, mens den øker i øvrig industri. Resultatene er således konsistent med utviklingen i relative lønninger og lønnsandeler i de to delene av industrien de siste 10 årene

Testing for Micro Efficiency in the Housing Market

While aggregate house price indices display time persistence, less is known about micro persistence. This article proposes that absence of micro persistence implies that an excessively high or low sell price in one transaction is not repeated in the next transaction. We exploit a unique Norwegian data set of publically registered housing transactions between 2002 and 2014 and follow housing units over time to see if excessive prices persist or revert. In a regression with time and unit-fixed effects of sell-price-to-predicted-price ratios on previous sell-price-to-predicted-price ratios, we reject persistence and find substantial reversion. We also test for possible arbitrage opportunities in the form of excess returns. Once we control for price increases that are due to home improvements, we document that there is little scope for profitable arbitrage in excess of the market return. The overall impression is that the Norwegian housing market is relatively micro efficient.publishedVersio

Acontece na UFRGS

O curso de Psicologia, tendo que atender às diretrizes curriculares para Educação em Direitos Humanos, Relações Étnico-raciais e em Políticas de Educação Ambiental, bem como a Política Nacional para a Integração das Pessoas com Deficiência, tem procurado debater essas questões com sua comunidade