Mathematical Structures in Group Decision-Making on Resource Allocation Distributions.

Optimal decisions on the distribution of finite resources are explicitly structured by mathematical models that specify relevant variables, constraints, and objectives. Here we report analysis and evidence that implicit mathematical structures are also involved in group decision-making on resource allocation distributions under conditions of uncertainty that disallow formal optimization. A group's array of initial distribution preferences automatically sets up a geometric decision space of alternative resource distributions. Weighted averaging mechanisms of interpersonal influence reduce the heterogeneity of the group's initial preferences on a suitable distribution. A model of opinion formation based on weighted averaging predicts a distribution that is a feasible point in the group's implicit initial decision space

Visualisation of the information resources for cell biology

Intelligent multimodal interfaces can facilitate scientists in utilising available information resources. Combining scientific visualisations with interactive and intelligent tools can help create a “habitable” information space. Development of such tools remains largely iterative. We discuss an ongoing implementation of intelligent interactive visualisation of information resources in cell biology

Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

The energy price shock depressed real output by two percent in 1974 and by five percent in 1975, according to our results. Prices rose by four percent in 1974 and by another two percent in 1975. These conclusions are derived from an aggregate model of the U.S. economy with an explicit role of energy in production. The distinction between expected and unexpected shocks is an important part of the model. We also examine monetary and fiscal policies that might have offset the energy shock.

Novel Multidimensional Models of Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

Unlike many complex networks studied in the literature, social networks rarely exhibit unanimous behavior, or consensus. This requires a development of mathematical models that are sufficiently simple to be examined and capture, at the same time, the complex behavior of real social groups, where opinions and actions related to them may form clusters of different size. One such model, proposed by Friedkin and Johnsen, extends the idea of conventional consensus algorithm (also referred to as the iterative opinion pooling) to take into account the actors' prejudices, caused by some exogenous factors and leading to disagreement in the final opinions. In this paper, we offer a novel multidimensional extension, describing the evolution of the agents' opinions on several topics. Unlike the existing models, these topics are interdependent, and hence the opinions being formed on these topics are also mutually dependent. We rigorous examine stability properties of the proposed model, in particular, convergence of the agents' opinions. Although our model assumes synchronous communication among the agents, we show that the same final opinions may be reached "on average" via asynchronous gossip-based protocols.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control (to be published in May 2017

Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter: Experiment summary after the first year of global mapping of Mars

The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), an instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft, has measured the topography, surface roughness, and 1.064-μm reflectivity of Mars and the heights of volatile and dust clouds. This paper discusses the function of the MOLA instrument and the acquisition, processing, and correction of observations to produce global data sets. The altimeter measurements have been converted to both gridded and spherical harmonic models for the topography and shape of Mars that have vertical and radial accuracies of ~1 m with respect to the planet's center of mass. The current global topographic grid has a resolution of 1/64° in latitude × 1/32° in longitude (1 × 2 km^2 at the equator). Reconstruction of the locations of incident laser pulses on the Martian surface appears to be at the 100-m spatial accuracy level and results in 2 orders of magnitude improvement in the global geodetic grid of Mars. Global maps of optical pulse width indicative of 100-m-scale surface roughness and 1.064-μm reflectivity with an accuracy of 5% have also been obtained

On the assessment of the nature of open star clusters and the determination of their basic parameters with limited data

Our knowledge of stellar evolution and of the structure and chemical evolution of the Galactic disk largely builds on the study of open star clusters. Because of their crucial role in these relevant topics, large homogeneous catalogues of open cluster parameters are highly desirable. Although efforts have been made to develop automatic tools to analyse large numbers of clusters, the results obtained so far vary from study to study, and sometimes are very contradictory when compared to dedicated studies of individual clusters. In this work we highlight the common causes of these discrepancies for some open clusters, and show that at present dedicated studies yield a much better assessment of the nature of star clusters, even in the absence of ideal data-sets. We make use of deep, wide-field, multi-colour photometry to discuss the nature of six strategically selected open star clusters: Trumpler~22, Lynga~6, Hogg~19, Hogg~21, Pismis~10 and Pismis~14. We have precisely derived their basic parameters by means of a combination of star counts and photometric diagrams. Trumpler~22 and Lynga~6 are included in our study because they are widely known, and thus provided a check of our data and methodology. The remaining four clusters are very poorly known, and their available parameters have been obtained using automatic tools only. Our results are in some cases in severe disagreement with those from automatic surveys.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures, in pres

Delayed financial disclosure: Mexico's recent experience

This article documents a delay in the public release of Mexican international reserve data in the months before Mexico's debt crisis at the end of 1994. The article establishes that in that year investors did not know the level of Mexican reserves before October; yet this lack of information did not seem to reduce investor confidence in the Mexican economy. The article does not establish whether the delay in releasing reserve data was due to logistical problems or to a government strategy. The possibility that the delay was strategic is evaluated by developing an economic model that captures some of the principal constraints facing the Mexican government in 1994 and that makes explicit the conflicting objectives of the government and investors. The model shows that in such an environment with private information, strategic delay can occur in equilibrium if investors are uncertain about the cause of the delay.Mexico ; Devaluation of currency ; Peso, Mexican

Spatial Analysis of Market Linkages in North Carolina Using Threshold Autoregression Models with Variable Transaction Costs

In North Carolina, where soybeans and corn are the two primary crops, the recent increase in the demand for U.S. corn has triggered a shift of farm acreage from soybeans to corn, leading to a rapid rise in prices of both commodities. However, the rate of the price changes, as well as the price level, is significantly different in markets that are located in different parts of the state. This study extends the literature that examines linkages between spatially separated markets by using a threshold autoregressive model with a less restrictive assumption for estimating the transaction cost neutral band -- the band within which trade is not profitable. This generalization allows the neutral band of transactions costs to change according to various external factors, including fuel costs and seasonality. The estimation results indicate that for longer time series data, variable thresholds models statistically outperform the constant thresholds specification, and may provide a better representation of corn and soybean price data. Additionally, impulse response functions that use the asymmetric variable threshold model parameters indicate that the magnitude of the shock as well as the time-to-price-parity-equilibrium in the linked markets may be underestimated if a constant thresholds specification is implemented.threshold autoregression, spatially separated markets, impulse response, neutral band, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, Q11, Q13,