Spatial and structural determinants of residential burglary rates in Kitchener-Waterloo (Ontario)

Traditional ecological analyses of burglary have a number of shortcomings. First, break-ins occurring within a neighbourhood have been regarded as a solely the product of local residents. Second, the relationship between burglary and its determinants has been considered constant across space. Third, the data used in ecological analysis has been treated as statistically independent. The purpose of this study is to expand upon previous ecological studies through an analysis of residential burglary in Kitchener-Waterloo, Canada Theory from environmental criminology (a discipline concerned with the spatial aspects of crime) is used in conjunction with spatial data analysis techniques and GIS technology to model the variation of breaking and entering across the city’s enumeration areas. The results suggest a heterogeneous spatial structure underlying the determinants of burglary rates. Within a four kilometre radius of the CBD, the crime is very localized; its prevalence in a neighbourhood best predicted by the offender characteristics of the local area Within the area located beyond this inner zone, significant predictor variables relate to the attractiveness of an EA in terms of opportunities, suggesting that the crime is committed by individuals journeying from other areas. Throughout the entire study area higher population densities were consistently found to be the greatest deterrent to burglary rates recorded at this scale

Stress response during early sedation with dexmedetomidine compared with usual-care in ventilated critically ill patients

Background: Sedative agents may variably impact the stress response. Dexmedetomidine is a sympatholytic alpha2-adrenergic agonist mainly used as a second-line sedative agent in mechanically ventilated patients. We hypothesised that early sedation with dexmedetomidine as the primary agent would result in a reduced stress response compared to usual sedatives in critically ill ventilated adults. Methods: This was a prospective sub-study nested within a multi-centre randomised controlled trial of early sedation with dexmedetomidine versus usual care. The primary outcome was the mean group differences in plasma levels of stress response biomarkers measured over 5 days following randomisation. Other hormonal, biological and physiological parameters were collected. Subgroup analyses were planned for patients with proven or suspected sepsis. Results: One hundred and three patients were included in the final analysis. Baseline illness severity (APACHE II score), the proportion of patients receiving propofol and the median dose of propofol received were comparable between groups. More of the usual-care patients received midazolam (57.7% vs 33.3%; p = 0.01) and at higher dose (median (95% interquartile range) 0.46 [0.20–0.93] vs 0.14 [0.08–0.38] mg/kg/day; p < 0.01). The geometric mean (95% CI) plasma level of the stress hormones, adrenaline (0.32 [0.26–0.4] vs 0.38 [0.31–0.48]), noradrenaline (4.27 [3.12–5.85] vs 6.2 [4.6–8.5]), adrenocorticotropic hormone (17.1 [15.1–19.5] vs 18.1 [15.9–20.5]) and cortisol (515 [409–648] vs 618 [491–776)] did not differ between dexmedetomidine and usual-care groups, respectively. There were no significant differences in any other assayed biomarkers or physiological parameters Sensitivity analyses showed no effect of age or sepsis. Conclusions: Early sedation with dexmedetomidine as the primary sedative agent in mechanically ventilated critically ill adults resulted in comparable changes in physiological and blood-borne parameters associated with the stress-response as with usual-care sedation

Age-Related Clinical Spectrum of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria and Predictors of Severity.

Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is increasingly reported in Southeast Asia, but prospective studies of its clinical spectrum in children and comparison with autochthonous human-only Plasmodium species are lacking. Methods: Over 3.5 years, we prospectively assessed patients of any age with molecularly-confirmed Plasmodium monoinfection presenting to 3 district hospitals in Sabah, Malaysia. Results: Of 481 knowlesi, 172 vivax, and 96 falciparum malaria cases enrolled, 44 (9%), 71 (41%), and 31 (32%) children aged ≤12 years. Median parasitemia was lower in knowlesi malaria (2480/μL [interquartile range, 538-8481/μL]) than in falciparum (9600/μL; P 15000/μL the best predictor (adjusted odds ratio, 16.1; negative predictive value, 98.5%; P 15000/μL

Individual-level factors associated with the risk of acquiring human Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Malaysia: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of human malaria due to the monkey parasite Plasmodium knowlesi threatens elimination efforts in southeast Asia. Changes in land use are thought to be driving the rise in reported P knowlesi cases, but the role of individual-level factors is unclear. To address this knowledge gap we assessed human and environmental factors associated with zoonotic knowlesi malaria risk. METHODS: We did this population-based case-control study over a 2 year period in the state of Sabah in Malaysia. We enrolled cases with microscopy-positive, PCR-confirmed malaria who presented to two primary referral hospitals serving the adjacent districts of Kudat and Kota Marudu. We randomly selected three malaria-negative community controls per case, who were matched by village within 2 weeks of case detection. We obtained questionnaire data on demographics, behaviour, and residential malaria risk factors, and we also assessed glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) enzyme activity. We used conditional logistic regression models to evaluate exposure risk between P knowlesi cases and controls, and between P knowlesi and human-only Plasmodium spp malaria cases. FINDINGS: From Dec 5, 2012, to Jan 30, 2015, we screened 414 patients and subsequently enrolled 229 cases with P knowlesi malaria mono-infection and 91 cases with other Plasmodium spp infection. We enrolled 953 matched controls, including 683 matched to P knowlesi cases and 270 matched to non-P knowlesi cases. Age 15 years or older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4·16, 95% CI 2·09-8·29, p<0·0001), male gender (4·20, 2·54-6·97, p<0·0001), plantation work (3·50, CI, 1·34-9·15, p=0·011), sleeping outside (3·61, 1·48-8·85, p=0·0049), travel (2·48, 1·45-4·23, p=0·0010), being aware of the presence of monkeys in the past 4 weeks (3·35, 1·91-5·88, p<0·0001), and having open eaves or gaps in walls (2·18, 1·33-3·59, p=0·0021) were independently associated with increased risk of symptomatic P knowlesi infection. Farming occupation (aOR 1·89, 95% CI 1·07-3·35, p=0·028), clearing vegetation (1·89, 1·11-3·22, p=0·020), and having long grass around the house (2·08, 1·25-3·46, p=0·0048) increased risk for P knowlesi infection but not other Plasmodium spp infection. G6PD deficiency seemed to be protective against P knowlesi (aOR 0·20, 95% CI 0·04-0·96, p=0·045), as did residual insecticide spraying of household walls (0·52, 0·31-0·87, p=0·014), with the presence of young sparse forest (0·35, 0·20-0·63, p=00040) and rice paddy around the house (0·16, 0·03-0·78, 0·023) also associated with decreased risk. INTERPRETATION: Adult men working in agricultural areas were at highest risk of knowlesi malaria, although peri-domestic transmission also occurrs. Human behavioural factors associated with P knowlesi transmission could be targeted in future public health interventions. FUNDING: United Kingdom Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, and Biotechnology and Biosciences Research Council

A Prospective Study of Tuberculosis Drug Susceptibility in Sabah, Malaysia, and an Algorithm for Management of Isoniazid Resistance

Introduction. The burden of tuberculosis is high in eastern Malaysia, and rates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance are poorly defined. Our objectives were to determine M. tuberculosis susceptibility and document management after receipt of susceptibility results. Methods. Prospective study of adult outpatients with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Sabah, Malaysia. Additionally, hospital clinicians accessed the reference laboratory for clinical purposes during the study. Results. 176 outpatients were enrolled; 173 provided sputum samples. Mycobacterial culture yielded M. tuberculosis in 159 (91.9%) and nontuberculous Mycobacterium (NTM) in three (1.7%). Among outpatients there were no instances of multidrug resistant M. tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Seven people (4.5%) had isoniazid resistance (INH-R); all were switched to an appropriate second-line regimen for varying durations (4.5-9 months). Median delay to commencement of the second-line regimen was 13 weeks. Among 15 inpatients with suspected TB, 2 had multidrug resistant TB (one extensively drug resistant), 2 had INH-R, and 4 had NTM. Conclusions. Current community rates of MDR-TB in Sabah are low. However, INH-resistance poses challenges, and NTM is an important differential diagnosis in this setting, where smear microscopy is the usual diagnostic modality. To address INH-R management issues in our setting, we propose an algorithm for the treatment of isoniazid-resistant PTB

The Impact of Delayed Treatment of Uncomplicated \u3ci\u3eP. falciparum\u3c/i\u3e Malaria on Progression to Severe Malaria: A Systematic Review and a Pooled Multicentre Individual-Patient Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Delay in receiving treatment for uncomplicated malaria (UM) is often reported to increase the risk of developing severe malaria (SM), but access to treatment remains low in most high-burden areas. Understanding the contribution of treatment delay on progression to severe disease is critical to determine how quickly patients need to receive treatment and to quantify the impact of widely implemented treatment interventions, such as \u27test-and-treat\u27 policies administered by community health workers (CHWs). We conducted a pooled individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate the association between treatment delay and presenting with SM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A search using Ovid MEDLINE and Embase was initially conducted to identify studies on severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria that included information on treatment delay, such as fever duration (inception to 22nd September 2017). Studies identified included 5 case-control and 8 other observational clinical studies of SM and UM cases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and all studies were ranked as \u27Good\u27, scoring ≥7/10. Individual-patient data (IPD) were pooled from 13 studies of 3,989 (94.1% aged \u3c15 years) SM patients and 5,780 (79.6% aged \u3c15 years) UM cases in Benin, Malaysia, Mozambique, Tanzania, The Gambia, Uganda, Yemen, and Zambia. Definitions of SM were standardised across studies to compare treatment delay in patients with UM and different SM phenotypes using age-adjusted mixed-effects regression. The odds of any SM phenotype were significantly higher in children with longer delays between initial symptoms and arrival at the health facility (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64 for a delay of \u3e24 hours versus ≤24 hours; p = 0.009). Reported illness duration was a strong predictor of presenting with severe malarial anaemia (SMA) in children, with an OR of 2.79 (95% CI:1.92-4.06; p \u3c 0.001) for a delay of 2-3 days and 5.46 (95% CI: 3.49-8.53; p \u3c 0.001) for a delay of \u3e7 days, compared with receiving treatment within 24 hours from symptom onset. We estimate that 42.8% of childhood SMA cases and 48.5% of adult SMA cases in the study areas would have been averted if all individuals were able to access treatment within the first day of symptom onset, if the association is fully causal. In studies specifically recording onset of nonsevere symptoms, long treatment delay was moderately associated with other SM phenotypes (OR [95% CI] \u3e3 to ≤4 days versus ≤24 hours: cerebral malaria [CM] = 2.42 [1.24-4.72], p = 0.01; respiratory distress syndrome [RDS] = 4.09 [1.70-9.82], p = 0.002). In addition to unmeasured confounding, which is commonly present in observational studies, a key limitation is that many severe cases and deaths occur outside healthcare facilities in endemic countries, where the effect of delayed or no treatment is difficult to quantify. CONCLUSIONS: Our results quantify the relationship between rapid access to treatment and reduced risk of severe disease, which was particularly strong for SMA. There was some evidence to suggest that progression to other severe phenotypes may also be prevented by prompt treatment, though the association was not as strong, which may be explained by potential selection bias, sample size issues, or a difference in underlying pathology. These findings may help assess the impact of interventions that improve access to treatment

The Impact of Phenotypic and Genotypic G6PD Deficiency on Risk of Plasmodium vivax Infection: A Case-Control Study amongst Afghan Refugees in Pakistan

Analyses of a case-control study among Afghan refugees in Pakistan find that a G6PD (glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase) “Mediterranean” type deficiency confers substantial protection against Plasmodium vivax malaria

Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance

Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models’ performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role

Locke on individuation and the corpuscular basis of kinds

In this paper, I examine the crucial relationship between Locke’s theory of individuation and his theory of kinds. Locke holds that two material objects -- e.g., a mass of matter and an oak tree -- can be in the same place at the same time, provided that they are ‘of different kinds’. According to Locke, kinds are nominal essences, that is, general abstract ideas based on objective similarities between particularindividuals. I argue that Locke’s view on coinciding material objects is incompatible with his view on kinds. In order for two material objects to be in the same place at the same time, they must differ with respect to at least one nominal essence. However, Locke thinks that it is impossible that x and y have the same real essence but differ with respect to any nominal essence; and coinciding material objects have the same real essence. Therefore, Locke cannot hold what he in fact holds, namely that distinct material objects can be in the same place at the same tim

Myocardial Blood Flow Reserve Is Impaired in Patients With Aortic Valve Calcification and Unobstructed Epicardial Coronary Arteries

Background: Although calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) is associated with coronary atherosclerosis, it is not known whether early CAVD is associated with coronary microcirculatory dysfunction (CMD). We sought to investigate the relationship between myocardial blood flow reserve (MBFR) - a measure of CMD, and early CAVD. We also determined whether this relationship was independent of coronary artery disease (CAD) and hs-CRP, a marker of systemic inflammation. Methods: 183 patients with chest pain and unobstructed coronary arteries were studied. Aortic valve calcification score (AVCS), coronary total plaque length (TPL), and coronary calcium score were quantified from multislice CT. MBFR was assessed using vasodilator myocardial contrast echocardiography. Hs-CRP was measured from venous blood using a particle-enhanced immunoassay. Results: Mean(±SD) participant age was 59.8(9.6) years. Mean AVCS was 68(258) AU, TPL was 15.6(22.2) mm, and median coronary calcification score was 43.5AU. Mean MBFR was 2.20(0.52). Mean hs-CRP was 2.52(3.86) mg/L. Multivariable linear regression modelling incorporating demographics, coronary plaque characteristics, MBFR, and inflammatory markers, demonstrated that age (β=0.05, 95%CI:0.02,0.08, P=0.007), hs-CRP (β=0.09, CI:0.02,0.16, P=0.010) and diabetes (β=1.03, CI:0.08,1.98, P=0.033), were positively associated with AVCS. MBFR (β=-0.87, CI:-1.44,-0.30, P=0.003), BMI (β=-0.11, CI:-0.21,-0.01, P=0.033), and LDL (β=-0.32, CI:-0.61,-0.03, P=0.029) were negatively associated with AVCS. TPL and coronary calcium score were not independently associated with AVCS when included in the regression model. Conclusion: Coronary microvascular function as determined by measurement of myocardial blood flow reserve is an independent predictor of early CAVD. This effect is independent of the presence of coronary artery disease and also systemic inflammation