Reaction to Uncertainty and Market Mechanism:Experimental Evidence

Abstract Much of the evidence supporting the Ellsberg's paradox comes from experiments on individual choice and judgement. In this study, we address the issue whether, in market experiments, there is a tendency for anomalous behaviour to disappear or to be reduced as a consequence of market experience and feedback. We empirically test the validity of this assumption by running an auction market for the sale of both risky and uncertain prospects. We compare bidding behaviour and prices in market-like settings with valuations obtained from individual pricing tasks. We conclude that, with the repetition of the market experience, there is a tendency for subjective expected utility to perform better. However, economists' general assumption that, in laboratory experiments, poor performance of SEU is due to the lack of financial incentives or to the lack of market-like settings is by no means supported by our data.

Reaction to uncertainty and market mechanism : experimental evidence

Much of the evidence supporting the Ellsberg's paradox comes from experiments on individual choice and judgement. In this study, we address the issue whether, in market experiments, there is a tendency for anomalous behaviour to disappear or to be reduced as a consequence of market experience and feedback. We empirically test the validity of this assumption by running an auction market for the sale of both risky and uncertain prospects. We compare bidding behaviour and prices in market-like settings with valuations obtained from individual pricing tasks. We conclude that, with the repetition of the market experience, there is a tendency for subjective expected utility to perform better. However, economists' general assumption that, in laboratory experiments, poor performance of SEU is due to the lack of financial incentives or to the lack of market-like settings is by no means supported by our data

Do individual violations of subjective expected utility persist in markets? Insight from an experiment

Much of the evidence supporting the EllsbergÕs paradox comes from experiments on individual choice and judgement.In this study, we address the issue whether, in market experiments, there is a tendency for anomalous behaviour to disappear or to be reduced as a consequence of market experience and feedback. We empirically test the validity of this assumption by running an auction market for the sale of both risky and uncertain prospects. We conclude that, with the repetition of the market experience, individual bids converge towards behaviour consistent with subjective expected utility.risk, uncertainty, market, auctions, violation

Revisiting Sovereign Bankruptcy

Sovereign debt crises occur regularly and often violently. Yet there is no legally and politically recognized procedure for restructuring the debt of bankrupt sovereigns. Procedures of this type have been periodically debated, but so far been rejected, for two main reasons. First, countries have been reluctant to give up power to supranational rules or institutions, and creditors and debtors have felt that there were sufficient instruments for addressing debt crises at hoc. Second, fears that making debt easier to restructure would raise the costs and reduce the amounts of sovereign borrowing in many countries. This was perceived to be against the interests of both the providers of both creditors and major borrowers. This report argues that both the nature and our understanding of sovereign debt problems have changed, over the course of the last decade, in a direction that creates a much stronger case for an orderly sovereign bankruptcy regime today than ten years ago. Pre-crisis policy mistakes are now recognized to be a much more severe problem for borrowing countries than the costs or limited availability of private financing. Recent court rulings – particularly a recent U.S. ruling that gives holdout creditors that decline a restructuring offer the right to interfere with payments to the creditors that accept such an offer. This will complicate efforts to resolve future debt crises on an ad hoc basis. Finally, sovereign debt crises are no longer just a problem in emerging markets, but a core concern in advanced countries as well – particularly in the Euro area. If the Euro is to survive, this will require both better ways to resolve debt crises and stronger, market-based incentives that prevent debt problems from occurring in the first place. To address these problems, policy proposals are presented at two levels: for the Euro area, and globally. A Euro area sovereign debt restructuring regime could be developed by amending the Treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). This would both restrict the scope for lending to highly indebted countries without also restructuring their debts, and protect Euro area members receiving ESM financial assistance from legal action by holdout creditors. At the global level, a number of proposals are discussed, ranging from a coordinated introduction of aggregate collective action clauses that would allow a supermajority of bondholders across all bonds to amend bond payment terms to an amendment of the IMF articles that would limit the legal remedies of holdouts when a debt restructuring proposal has been accepted both by a majority of creditors and endorsed by the IMF

A developmental perspective on adolescent psychoanalytic psychotherapy. An Italian study with the Adolescent Psychotherapy Q-Set

Introduction: despite large and widely accepted research on effectiveness, most of psychotherapy research has been done with adults; few studies have been published on the process of adolescent psychotherapy, due to the complexity of the subject and the absence of instruments sensitive enough to empirically capture its nuances. Within psychoanalytic framework, a developmental approach is particu-larly helpful in the psychotherapy of adolescents. Objective: the purpose of this study was to investigate the typical features of Italian Adolescence Psychodynamic Psychotherapy and its similarities and differences with other adolescence psycho-therapeutic approaches; We also aimed at analyzing typical therapists' responses to adolescent patients. Method: 50 italian adolescence psychotherapists filled a brief questionnaire about their clinical expertise, completed the Adolescent Psychothe-rapy Q – Set (APQ) and the Therapist Response Questionnaire (TRQ) in order to describe their "actual" practice with adolescents. Results: therapeutic process is characterized by a priority to helping adolescent make sense of his own experience, it focuses on present relationships and emotions rather than on past. Strong similar-ities with Mentalization Based Therapy, mild and no correlations with Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy and Classical Psychoanalysis respectively were found; towards adolescents therapists generaly display positive and protective countertransference responses. They less frequenlty show negative responses as overprotection, hostility or feeling of overwhelming. Conclusions: APQ and TRQ can provide meaningfull information about adolescent psychotherapy process. Instruments' improvement (i.e. reviewd items for APQ) and future perspectives are also discussed

WEUSEDTO—Water End USE Dataset and TOols: An open water end use consumption dataset and data analytics tools

Globalization, climate changes, innovative technologies and new human habits have increased atten- tion to water conservation and management. Therefore, behavioural studies became a key element to understand how and when water is used in residential environment. Water End USE Dataset and TOols (WEUSEDTO), an open water end use consumption dataset and data analytics tools, has been released to help researchers, water utilities and companies to test models and algorithms on real water consumption data. The dataset combines with some notebook python able to analyse high-resolution water data (data recorded with 1 sample per second) to provide several tools to manage raw data, compute statistical analysis, learn fixture usage and generate synthetic simulation models. In addition, washbasin flow data were used as a test case to illustrate the main features of WEUSEDTO: providing volume and duration of single events, classifying usages and simulating user’s behaviour

Virus and host factors affecting the clinical outcome of bluetongue virus infection

Bluetongue is a major infectious disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), an arbovirus transmitted by Culicoides. Here, we assessed virus and host factors influencing the clinical outcome of BTV infection using a single experimental framework. We investigated how mammalian host species, breed, age, BTV serotypes, and strains within a serotype, affect the clinical course of bluetongue. Results obtained indicate that in small ruminants there is a marked difference in the susceptibility to clinical disease induced by BTV at the host species level, but less so at the breed level. No major differences in virulence were found between divergent serotypes (BTV-8 and BTV-2). However, we observed striking differences in virulence between closely related strains of the same serotype collected towards the beginning and the end of the European BTV-8 outbreak. As observed previously, differences in disease severity were also observed when animals were infected with either blood from a BTV-infected animal or from the same virus isolated in cell culture. Interestingly, with the exception of two silent mutations, full viral genome sequencing showed identical consensus sequences of the virus before and after cell culture isolation. However, deep sequencing analysis revealed a marked decrease in the genetic diversity of the viral population after passaging in mammalian cells. In contrast, passaging in Culicoides cells increased the overall number of low frequency variants compared to virus never passaged in cell culture. Thus, Culicoides might be a source of new viral variants and viral population diversity can be another factor influencing BTV virulence

Magnetic resonance imaging 3t and total fibrotic volume in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

INTRODUCTION: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common renal hereditary disorder. Several authors have attempted to identify a kidney damage marker for predicting the prognosis and the effectiveness of therapy in ADPKD. The aim of this study was to identify and quantify in ADPKD, through a novel MR protocol with 3 Tesla (MRI 3Tesla), the presence of parenchymal fibrotic tissue at early stage of disease, able to correlate the glomerular filtrate and to predict the loss of the function renal. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 15 ADPKD patients undergone to renal MRI 3Tesla at T0 and revaluated after follow up (T1) of 5 years. We have evaluated renal function, plasma aldosterone concentration (PAC), insulin resistance and surrogate markers of atherosclerosis (carotid intima media thickness (IMT), ankle/brachial index (ABI) and left ventricular mass index (LVMI). RESULTS: Our study showed a significant negative correlation between total kidney volume and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) during observational observation (p<0.02). Moreover, we showed a negative correlation between eGFR with Total Fibrotic Volume (TFV) (p<0.04) and Total Perfusion Volume/Total kidney Volume(<0.02). Moreover TFV was correlated positively with PAC (p<0.05), insulin values (p<0.05), ABI (p <0.05) and LVMI(p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The MRI 3Tesla, despite the high costs, could be considered an useful and non-invasive method in the evaluation of fibrotic tissue and progression of the disease in ADPKD patients. Further clinical trials on larger group are due to confirm the results of this pilot study, suggesting that MRI 3Tesla can be useful to evaluate the effectiveness of new therapeutic strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved