Detecting Signals of Disproportionate Reporting from Singapore's Spontaneous Adverse Event Reporting System: An Application of the Sequential Probability Ratio Test.

The ability to detect safety concerns from spontaneous adverse drug reaction reports in a timely and efficient manner remains important in public health. This paper explores the behaviour of the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) and ability to detect signals of disproportionate reporting (SDRs) in the Singapore context. We used SPRT with a combination of two hypothesised relative risks (hRRs) of 2 and 4.1 to detect signals of both common and rare adverse events in our small database. We compared SPRT with other methods in terms of number of signals detected and whether labelled adverse drug reactions were detected or the reaction terms were considered serious. The other methods used were reporting odds ratio (ROR), Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) and Gamma Poisson Shrinker (GPS). The SPRT produced 2187 signals in common with all methods, 268 unique signals, and 70 signals in common with at least one other method, and did not produce signals in 178 cases where two other methods detected them, and there were 403 signals unique to one of the other methods. In terms of sensitivity, ROR performed better than other methods, but the SPRT method found more new signals. The performances of the methods were similar for negative predictive value and specificity. Using a combination of hRRs for SPRT could be a useful screening tool for regulatory agencies, and more detailed investigation of the medical utility of the system is merited

Evidence-based decision support for pediatric rheumatology reduces diagnostic errors.

BACKGROUND: The number of trained specialists world-wide is insufficient to serve all children with pediatric rheumatologic disorders, even in the countries with robust medical resources. We evaluated the potential of diagnostic decision support software (DDSS) to alleviate this shortage by assessing the ability of such software to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-specialists. METHODS: Using vignettes of actual clinical cases, clinician testers generated a differential diagnosis before and after using diagnostic decision support software. The evaluation used the SimulConsult® DDSS tool, based on Bayesian pattern matching with temporal onset of each finding in each disease. The tool covered 5405 diseases (averaging 22 findings per disease). Rheumatology content in the database was developed using both primary references and textbooks. The frequency, timing, age of onset and age of disappearance of findings, as well as their incidence, treatability, and heritability were taken into account in order to guide diagnostic decision making. These capabilities allowed key information such as pertinent negatives and evolution over time to be used in the computations. Efficacy was measured by comparing whether the correct condition was included in the differential diagnosis generated by clinicians before using the software ( unaided ), versus after use of the DDSS ( aided ). RESULTS: The 26 clinicians demonstrated a significant reduction in diagnostic errors following introduction of the software, from 28% errors while unaided to 15% using decision support (p \u3c 0.0001). Improvement was greatest for emergency medicine physicians (p = 0.013) and clinicians in practice for less than 10 years (p = 0.012). This error reduction occurred despite the fact that testers employed an open book approach to generate their initial lists of potential diagnoses, spending an average of 8.6 min using printed and electronic sources of medical information before using the diagnostic software. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that decision support can reduce diagnostic errors and improve use of relevant information by generalists. Such assistance could potentially help relieve the shortage of experts in pediatric rheumatology and similarly underserved specialties by improving generalists\u27 ability to evaluate and diagnose patients presenting with musculoskeletal complaints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02205086

Sialylation of campylobacter jejuni lipo-oligosaccharides: impact on phagocytosis and cytokine production in mice

<p>Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a post-infectious polyradiculoneuropathy, frequently associated with antecedent Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) infection. The presence of sialic acid on C. jejuni lipo-oligosaccharide (LOS) is considered a risk factor for development of GBS as it crucially determines the structural homology between LOS and gangliosides, explaining the induction of cross-reactive neurotoxic antibodies. Sialylated C. jejuni are recognised by TLR4 and sialoadhesin; however, the functional implications of these interactions in vivo are unknown.</p> <p>Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study we investigated the effects of bacterial sialylation on phagocytosis and cytokine secretion by mouse myeloid cells in vitro and in vivo. Using fluorescently labelled GM1a/GD1a ganglioside-mimicking C. jejuni strains and corresponding (Cst-II-mutant) control strains lacking sialic acid, we show that sialylated C. jejuni was more efficiently phagocytosed in vitro by BM-MΦ, but not by BM-DC. In addition, LOS sialylation increased the production of IL-10, IL-6 and IFN-β by both BM-MΦ and BM-DC. Subsequent in vivo experiments revealed that sialylation augmented the deposition of fluorescent bacteria in splenic DC, but not macrophages. In addition, sialylation significantly amplified the production of type I interferons, which was independent of pDC.</p> <p>Conclusions/Significance: These results identify novel immune stimulatory effects of C. jejuni sialylation, which may be important in inducing cross-reactive humoral responses that cause GBS</p&gt

Medicinal plants used by the Yi ethnic group: a case study in central Yunnan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This paper is based on ethnomedicinal investigation conducted from 1999–2002 in Chuxiong, central Yunnan Province, Southwest China. The Yi medicine has made a great contribution to the ethnomedicinal field in China. Neither case studies nor integrated inventories have previously been conducted to investigate the traditional Yi plants. This paper aims to argue the status and features of medicinal plants used in traditional Yi societies through a case study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The approaches of ethnobotany, anthropology, and participatory rural appraisal were used in the field surveys. Twenty-two informants in four counties were interviewed during eight field trips. Medicinal plant specimens were identified according to taxonomic methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred sixteen medicinal plant species were found to be useful by the local people in the treatment of various diseases or disorders, especially those relating to trauma, gastrointestinal disorders and the common cold. Among these 116 species, 25 species (21.55%) were found to have new curative effects and 40 species (34.48%) were recorded for their new preparation methods; 55 different species were used in treating wounds and fractures, and 47 were used to treat gastrointestinal disorders. Traditional Yi herbal medicines are characterized by their numerous quantities of herbaceous plants and their common preparation with alcohol.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Totally 116 species in 58 families of medicinal plants traditionally used by the Yi people were inventoried and documented. The characteristics of medicinal plants were analyzed. Some new findings (such as new curative effects and new preparation methods) were recorded These newly gathered ethnobotanical and medicinal data are precious sources for the future development of new drugs, and for further phytochemical, pharmacological and clinical studies.</p

Dental management considerations for the patient with an acquired coagulopathy. Part 1: Coagulopathies from systemic disease

Current teaching suggests that many patients are at risk for prolonged bleeding during and following invasive dental procedures, due to an acquired coagulopathy from systemic disease and/or from medications. However, treatment standards for these patients often are the result of long-standing dogma with little or no scientific basis. The medical history is critical for the identification of patients potentially at risk for prolonged bleeding from dental treatment. Some time-honoured laboratory tests have little or no use in community dental practice. Loss of functioning hepatic, renal, or bone marrow tissue predisposes to acquired coagulopathies through different mechanisms, but the relationship to oral haemostasis is poorly understood. Given the lack of established, science-based standards, proper dental management requires an understanding of certain principles of pathophysiology for these medical conditions and a few standard laboratory tests. Making changes in anticoagulant drug regimens are often unwarranted and/or expensive, and can put patients at far greater risk for morbidity and mortality than the unlikely outcome of postoperative bleeding. It should be recognised that prolonged bleeding is a rare event following invasive dental procedures, and therefore the vast majority of patients with suspected acquired coagulopathies are best managed in the community practice setting

Risk factors for severe hand foot mouth disease in Singapore: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infection that can potentially lead to serious complications. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of acquiring severe HFMD in our population. METHODS: We performed a case control study using patients admitted to our hospital from August 2004 to July 2014. Cases were patients with severe HFMD disease while controls were age-matched patients obtained from the same year, in a 2:1 ratio. Data comprising demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms and signs, and lab findings were collected. Conditional univariable logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors for severe disease. RESULTS: A total of 24 cases of severe HFMD were identified and matched with 48 controls. Seventeen (70.8 %) cases had central nervous system complications. Seven (29.2 %) had cardiovascular complications without evidence of myocarditis. One patient died of encephalitis. The overall mortality of severe disease is 4 %. Evidence of hypoperfusion, seizure, altered mentation, meningeal irritation, tachycardia, tachypnea, raised absolute neutrophil count and EV-A71 (Enterovirus A71) positivity were significantly associated with a severe course of HFMD. CONCLUSION: In managing children with HFMD, physicians should consider these factors to help identify patients at risk for severe disease

Chemokine receptor expression in tumour islets and stroma in non-small cell lung cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We have previously demonstrated that tumour islet infiltration by macrophages is associated with extended survival (ES) in NSCLC. We therefore hypothesised that patients with improved survival would have high tumour islet expression of chemokine receptors known to be associated with favourable prognosis in cancer. This study investigated chemokine receptor expression in the tumour islets and stroma in NSCLC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used immunohistochemistry to identify cells expressing CXCR1, CXCR2, CXCR3, CXCR4, CXCR5 and CCR1 in the tumour islets and stroma in 20 patients with surgically resected NSCLC. Correlations were made with macrophage and mast cell expression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was increased expression of CXCR2, CXCR3, and CCR1 in the tumour islets of ES compared with poor survival (PS) patients (p = 0.007, 0.01, and 0.002, respectively). There was an association between 5 year survival and tumour islet CXCR2, CXCR3 and CCR1 density (p = 0.02, 0.003 and <0.001, respectively) as well as stromal CXCR3 density (p = 0.003). There was a positive correlation between macrophage density and CXCR3 expression (r_s= 0.520, p = 0.02) and between mast cell density and CXCR3 expression (r_s= 0.499, p = 0.03) in the tumour islets.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Above median expression of CXCR2, CXCR3 and CCR1 in the tumour islets is associated with increased survival in NSCLC, and expression of CXCR3 correlates with increased macrophage and mast cell infiltration in the tumour islets.</p

A probabilistic interpretation of PID controllers using active inference

In the past few decades, probabilistic interpretations of brain functions have become widespread in cognitive science and neuroscience. The Bayesian brain hypothesis, predictive coding, the free energy principle and active inference are increasingly popular theories of cognitive functions that claim to unify understandings of life and cognition within general mathematical frameworks derived from information and control theory, statistical physics and machine learning. The connections between information and control theory have been discussed since the 1950’s by scientists like Shannon and Kalman and have recently risen to prominence in modern stochastic optimal control theory. However, the implications of the confluence of these two theoretical frameworks for the biological sciences have been slow to emerge. Here we argue that if the active inference proposal is to be taken as a general process theory for biological systems, we need to consider how existing control theoretical approaches to biological systems relate to it. In this work we will focus on PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controllers, one of the most common types of regulators employed in engineering and more recently used to explain behaviour in biological systems, e.g. chemotaxis in bacteria and amoebae or robust adaptation in biochemical networks. Using active inference, we derive a probabilistic interpretation of PID controllers, showing how they can fit a more general theory of life and cognition under the principle of (variational) free energy minimisation under simple linear generative models.most common types of regulators employed in engineering and more recently used to explain behaviour in biological systems, e.g. chemotaxis in bacteria and amoebae or robust adaptation in biochemical networks. Using active inference, we derive a probabilistic interpretation of PID controllers, showing how they can fit a more general theory of life and cognition under the principle of (variational) free energy minimisation under simple linear generative models

In patient stroke rehabilitation efficiency: Influence of organization of service delivery and staff numbers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Outcomes of inpatient stroke rehabilitation need to be reviewed in terms of optimal resource utilization (staff time, service organization, and duration of stay). We compared FIM efficiency scores between three hospitals, and also variation in FIM scores over a ten year period in one hospital undergoing reduction in staff numbers, to examine the relationship between outcome and service characteristics.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>This is a retrospective study comparing the mean FIM efficiency for stroke patients (FIM score – FIM admission score) divided by duration of stay for 2005 among three rehabilitation hospitals adjusting for age and baseline FIM score, and a longitudinal study of changes in mean FIM efficiency during a ten year period in one hospital, to examine the effects of different service organization and staff numbers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>FIM efficiency (FIMEG) was inversely associated with age, and positively associated with admission FIM score. FIMEG was higher in the hospital with a coordinated care plan involving medical, nursing, occupational, physiotherapy staff and other healthcare providers working as a team, with a seamless interface with community rehabilitation services. Over a ten year period, reduction in staff numbers was associated with reduction in FIMEG, which may be offset to some extent by service re-engineering.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Within hospital organization of stroke rehabilitation services may influence outcome. A critical number of staff may be identified for the provision of services, below which rehabilitation efficiency may be affected.</p

The prevalence, incidence and natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis in an ethnically diverse population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare chronic cholestatic liver disease often associated with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Current epidemiological data are limited to studies of predominantly Caucasian populations. Our aim was to define the epidemiology of PSC in a large, ethnically diverse US population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Northern California Kaiser Permanente (KP) database includes records from over 3 million people and was searched for cases of PSC between January 2000 and October 2006. All identified charts were reviewed for diagnosis confirmation, IBD co-morbidity, and major natural history endpoints.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 169 (101 males) cases fulfilling PSC diagnostic criteria with a mean age at diagnosis of 44 years (range 11-81). The age-adjusted point prevalence was 4.15 per 100,000 on December 31, 2005. The age-adjusted incidence per 100,000 person-years was not significantly greater in men 0.45 (95% CI 0.33 - 0.61) than women 0.37 (95% CI 0.26 - 0.51). IBD was present in 109/169 (64.5%) cases and was significantly more frequent in men than women with PSC (73.3% and 51.5%, respectively, p = 0.005). The cumulative average yearly mortality rate was 1.9%. Age and serum sodium, creatinine and bilirubin at diagnosis and albumin at last entry were identified as significant factors associated with death, liver transplant or cholangiocarcinoma.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The incidence and prevalence of PSC observed in a representative Northern California population are lower compared to previous studies in Caucasian populations and this might reflect differences in the incidence of PSC among various ethnic groups.</p